Somalia doesn’t even hold out the hope of ex post facto explanations because it exists in some sort of alternative reality. I’ve seen the “insurgents” being described in recent wire copy as “rebels” but are they? Is the TFG really a government? Even our language seems inadequate to describe the place.

We have a similar problem in Sudan – so many expert analysts telling you exactly what is happening/will happen, which is then usually followed by the exact opposite. Somebody very seriously told me the other day “it takes at least a couple of months here before you really know whats going on”. I had the same urge as Vasco.

It’s another example of where Somalia is just qualitatively different to the rest of the known universe.

I don’t understand Somalia either. A friend and I were recently discussing this very issue: Somalia and the uncertainty principle (though not quite eloquently stated). We decided that working in Somalia is different to working in any other conflict zone we had worked in. Why?

1. The frequency of security incidents, threats, and other mushkilas is much higher. Where one would expect one ‘bullshit’ incident per week in say Afghanistan, one can expect one or two incidents per DAY in Somalia. It’s like people are on speed.

2. There are just too many players to deal with, and they evolve and splinter too quickly. Just the other day another Islamic group came to town. One we had never heard of before.

3. The uncertainty principle goes all the way from macro to micro. To the individual.

Sure makes it hard to plan, you know. So we try to plan (eg., for food aid distribution), and we find we have to re-plan every two or three days.

Oh yeah, and just to add that every time someone compares Shabab to Taliban, I just want to frikkin’ deck ’em.

Also, I googled your quote, and it seems to be based on this one about relativity: http://3quarksdaily.blogs.com/3quarksdaily/2005/06/monday_musing_s.html – maybe you only made up part of it?