By Nicole Hunt
This week’s roundup includes no fewer than eight elections at all levels of government, beginning with a leadership ballot for Australia’s Labor Party on Monday. Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the snap ballot on Thursday after the sudden resignation of Foreign Minister (and former PM) Kevin Rudd amid allegations of infighting and leadership coups. Gillard has said she expects the support of her party, but will retreat to backbench politics if she loses the ballot.
If you feel like there’s a US Republican primary every week, you’re probably not far off. On Tuesday, Arizona and Michigan take their turns at choosing who they want to lead the party into battle against Barack Obama. So far, Mitt Romney is leading the pack with a delegate count of 91 to Newt Gingrich’s 32, Ron Paul’s nine and Rick Santorum’s four, but as the winner needs 1,144 delegate votes to win, everyone still has a long way to go.
The Pakistani Supreme Court is going through what one might call a bit of a busy period at the moment, handling two high profile, national interest cases. The first, which has seen Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani charged with contempt of court over his decision not to investigate corruption among politicians (including President Asif Ali Zardari) after passing a controversial amnesty law in 2007, is back in court on Tuesday, with Gilani’s defence lawyer’s expected to make representations.
The second case is in court on Wednesday, and addresses allegations that the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, better known as the ISI, distributed $6.5 million to opponents of the Pakistan Peoples Party in what amounts to vote-rigging in the 1990 election. The much-feared ISI is also facing a separate case involving 11 men it allegedly abducted from Rawalpindi’s Adiala jail in May 2010; the spy agency is being asked to explain the mysterious deaths of four of the detainees over the past six months.
Two psychiatrists asked to assess the mental health of Anders Behring Breivik, who admitted to carrying out the deadly 22 July attacks in Oslo and Utoya, are due to begin their four-week psychiatric evaluation on Wednesday. The experts have been asked to report back on Breivik’s mental state by 10 April, just days before he is due to stand trial. A November evaluation declared Breivik insane and unfit to stand trial.
On a day that only comes once every four years, the European Central Bank offers up something unusual, too – a 36-month longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO), one of three announced in December as part of emergency measures to support bank lending and market activities.
The success (or otherwise) of the LTRO will feed into what’s sure to be the now-customary high-pitched frenzy ahead of Thursday’s European Council meeting, at which the participating member states (that is, everyone besides the UK and the Czech Republic) are planning to sign the new fiscal responsibility treaty. The Council is also carrying out a review of the European Financial Stability Facility’s €500bn lending capacity.
Villagers in Wukan, China, hold a democratic election to choose their new village committee, unusual in China even at this level of politics. The villagers, who held unprecedented protests in December last year after a man negotiating a land dispute with authorities died in custody, had a practice run in February when they voted for the committee that would oversee Thursday’s polls.
Back to Pakistan on Friday, where the country elects 54 of the 104 members of the Senate for six year terms. The remaining 50 members are safe in their seats for another three years, when the other half of the Senate is up for grabs. Four new seats, which are reserved for minorities, have been added for this round of votes, which some hope will be followed quickly by parliamentary polls.
Iranians also go to the polls on Friday, to elect the 290 members of the Majlis for four-year terms. The election is the first national poll since controversial 2009 presidential elections, which saw the emergence of the opposition Green Movement, a subsequent crackdown on dissent, and disputed results. Reformist candidates will be hoping to beat the 51 seats won in the 2008 elections, especially as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is due to appear before Parliament for questioning over alleged mismanagement of the economy sometime soon.
France’s Constitutional Council is due to rule by Friday on a challenge lodged by two groups of MPs and Senators against a law criminalising denial of the Armenian genocide. The law was passed by the Senate on 23 January, but on 31 January was referred to the Council for a ruling on its validity. The Council is due to rule within one month.
Prince Harry begins a Caribbean tour as part of the Royal Family’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations. I think most people would envy him this business trip, which kicks off in Belize, and takes in the Bahamas and Jamaica before wrapping up in Brazil on 9 March.
On Saturday, a Cairo court is due to rule on charges against Free Egyptians Party founder and telecoms mogul Naguib Sawiris, who is accused of defamation and contempt of Islam over a picture he posted last summer depicting Mickey and Minnie Mouse in traditional Muslim garb.
The last of five local elections scheduled in India this quarter takes place in Goa three days before the results for all five are due to be announced. Elections have already taken place in Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Punjab, and Uttarakhand; elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are expected later this year. The local elections are being closely watched as an early barometer of party support ahead of 2014 general elections.
The last election of the week is also the biggest, as Russia gears up to elect its next President on Sunday. While the election of former President/current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is basically a foregone conclusion, the recent spate of anti-government protests and anti-Putin rhetoric means that Putin might find his vote percentage closer to the 52 per cent he received in his first election in 2000 than the 71% he managed in 2004.
Meanwhile, in Washington, Barack Obama is scheduled to address the annual American Israeli Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) policy conference. At last yea
r’s meeting, Obama famously and controversially referred to a two-state solution based on 1967 borders with agreed land swaps, borders which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later called ‘indefensible’.
By Nicole Hunt
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has been ordered to appear before the Supreme Court again on Monday, this time to be indicted on charges of contempt of court over what prosecutors say is his refusal to ask Swiss authorities to re-open graft investigations against allies, including President Asif Ali Zardari. Whether Gilani actually appears or not depends on the outcome of his last-minute appeal against the order.
The beginning of the week is filled with little bits and pieces that will be closely watched as part of the ongoing EU debt saga. Short-term debt auctions in France and Germany get things started on Monday, followed by the release of Greece’s fourth quarter GDP estimate on Tuesday, the same day the OECD publishes its Economic Survey of Germany.
Tuesday also marks the one year anniversary of the beginning of ill-fated protests in Bahrain. Inspired by the toppling of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime in Tunisia a month earlier and Hosni Mubarak’s regime in Egypt just days before, protesters took to the streets and Manama’s Pearl Roundabout to demand political reform. The protests were later crushed as a state of emergency was imposed a month later, with the help of Saudi Arabian troops, and the Pearl Roundabout was demolished on 18 March.
As Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faces the prospect of having to appear before Parliament in the coming weeks to defend himself against allegations of economic mismanagement and shady friends, the country’s opposition Green Movement has called for demonstrations across the country to mark the one year anniversary of 2009 presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi being placed under house arrest for their support of Arab Spring protests.
Back to the EU on Wednesday as fourth quarter GDP estimates are released for the euro zone and Germany.
While recent Arab League meetings have been dominated by what’s happening in Syria and the state of the League’s observer mission there, a lower-profile meeting in Cairo shifts the focus briefly to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Members of the League’s Follow-Up Committee are set to discuss the next steps in Palestinian negotiations with Israel, following the passing of a 26 January deadline without any Israeli commitments for a settlement freeze.
On Thursday, North Koreans mark what would have been the 70th birthday of recently-deceased leader Kim Jong-Il. Expect extravagant celebrations and more public mourning, and perhaps another parading of Kim’s son and heir, Kim Jong-un.
Ministers from the 56 countries that make up the Paris Pact Partners meet in Vienna to discuss how to combat the trafficking of opium and heroin from Afghanistan. The UNODC’s most recent Afghanistan Opium Survey, published in January, showed that opium prices in the country soared by 133 per cent last year.
Big celebrations are expected in Libya on Friday to mark the one year anniversary of the beginning of protests against Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. As the initial protests prompted a violent crackdown from Gaddafi forces, the situation in Libya quickly turned into the most global of the Arab Spring protests, with NATO forces beginning action there in March and international action continuing up until Gaddafi’s death on 20 October and the subsequent declaration of liberation by the National Transitional Council.
The Rwandan Supreme Court is expected to announce the fate of two journalists sentenced to prison after being convicted of denying the 1994 genocide, inciting civil disobedience and causing divisions. Agnes Uwimana Nkusi and Saidati Kukakibibi, sentenced to 17 and seven years, respectively, await the outcome of their appeal.
Voters in Latvia go to the polls on Saturday to decide whether to introduce Russian as the country’s second official language. Native Russian speakers account for approximately a third of the population in the former Soviet nation; over 50 per cent of the electorate must approve the measure for it to take effect.
In Cairo, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaa get together to iron out the details of a new unity government, which is expected to be announced at the end of their meeting. They’re also expected to confirm a date for elections, which are due to take place around 4 May, one year from the date they signed an agreement ending four years of internal conflict.
Saturday is also the beginning of Rio Carnival!
And on an otherwise fairly quiet Sunday, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is back in the spotlight – not in front of the courts, but on TV screens as he makes his appearance on the 500th episode of The Simpsons.
]]>By Nicole Hunt
European leaders gather in Brussels on Monday for an informal meeting of the European Council, during which discussions are set to focus on jobs and the new fiscal stabilisation treaty agreed at their controversial meeting last month. Leaders are planning to iron out the details of the treaty at the meeting, in hopes that it’ll be ready to sign by the time they meet again on 1 March.
While all eyes are on Brussels, two big trials are before the courts in South Africa. In Ventersdorp, Chris Mahlangu and an unnamed teenager are back on trial for the April 2010 murder of Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB) leader Eugene Terre’Blanche, postponed from October to allow more time for hearings.
Meanwhile, Henry Okah, former Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) leader, goes on trial in Johannesburg on terrorism charges in connection with the October 2010 Independence Day bombings in Abuja, Nigeria, which killed 12 people.
Monday is also the 40th anniversary of Bloody Sunday.
Spanish Magistrate Baltasar Garzon’s abuse of power trial resumes on Tuesday, with the judge himself expected to begin testifying if some preliminary matters are cleared up earlier in the day. There is speculation that the verdict for Garzon’s illegal wiretapping case – which was head on 17 January – could be delivered before Tuesday’s hearing.
The annual Herzliya policy conference kicks off in Jerusalem. Speakers throughout the three-day conference include Israeli President Shimon Peres, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle.
Wednesday is all about Supreme Courts. Wikileaks founder Julian Assange begins a two-day hearing at the UK Supreme Court in London, appealing a 24 February, 2010 decision to extradite him to Sweden to face questioning on charges of sexual assault. The court is expected to reserve judgement after the hearing wraps up on Thursday, meaning the legal saga won’t quite be over yet.
In Islamabad, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is back before the Supreme Court, which is looking into his government’s decision not to investigate corruption among politicians after passing a controversial amnesty law in 2007 known as the National Reconciliation Ordinance. Gilani appeared before the court briefly on 19 January.
A North Korean prisoner amnesty begins on Wednesday, as part of celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of the birth of recently-deceased Kim Jong-Il in February and the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-Sung in April.
NATO Defence Ministers begin a two-day meeting in Brussels on Thursday. Discussions are expected to focus on Afghanistan and security transition following the 20 January attack on French troops by an Afghan soldier, which killed four.
Kuwaitis go to the polls to elect 50 members to Parliament. Emir Sheikh Sabah al Ahmad al Sabah dissolved Parliament by decree on 6 December, 2011 citing ‘deteriorating conditions in the country’. 50 members are elected for four-year terms. Four women were elected for the first time in the country’s last elections, which took place in 2009.
On Friday, The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia hears the appeal for Khmer Rouge Special Branch Chief Kaing Guek Eav, aka Duch, who was convicted of crimes against humanity and grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions in July 2010. Duch, who was head of the infamous Tuol Sleng prison camp, was sentenced to 35 years in prison over the deaths of up to two million people during the 1975-79 Khmer Rouge regime.
The three-day Munich Security Conference begins Friday; though there’s no word yet on this year’s attendees, the guest list always features the great and good of international politics and defence (or at least the important). The MSC is often the site of important policy announcements, so is well worth looking out for.
Anti-Kremlin groups are scheduled to hold their latest protest in Moscow on Saturday, this one timed to coincide with the two-month anniversary of disputed parliamentary elections on 4 December, and with one month to go until presidential elections on 4 March almost certainly see Vladimir Putin return to the helm.
The month and a half long Rugby 6 Nations tournament begins, with France, Engand, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Italy hoping to end up in the 17 March final. England won the tournament in 2011.
The week closes with the runoff for the Finnish presidential race, following a first round vote on 22 January. Former Finance Minister Sauli Niinisto, who won 37 per cent of the first vote, faces off against Green party candidate Pekka Haavisto, who won 19 per cent of the vote.
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