If the event on Wednesday 12 November had taken place in Thailand instead of at the Frontline Club in London, members of the Thailand: A Kingdom in Crisis panel could have been jailed.

That’s because panellists broke the Thai lèse majesté law — the crime of violating majesty — by discussing the country’s monarchy and talking frankly about the issues surrounding the royal succession. Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej is 86 and ailing, after all, and in May of this year the military staged its 12th successful coup since the country became a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

From left: Simon Baptist, Andrew MacGregor Marshall, Eugénie Mérieau, Claudio Sopranzetti and Junya ‘Lek’ Yimprasert (via Skype) in conversation at the Frontline Club.

“I’m delighted that we’re having this discussion at all, because in my view, the biggest problem in Thailand is that it’s illegal to talk about what’s happening,” Andrew MacGregor Marshall, journalist and author of the recently released book A Kingdom in Crisis, said, noting that “because of the Thai lèse majesté law, you can be jailed for three to 15 years for even saying many of the things that I’m going to say tonight.”

“When the king dies, there’ll be a profound change in Thailand and all bets are off,” said Marshall, whose book was just banned in Thailand and is no longer able to return to the country.

Throughout all of the coups and unrest, Thailand has still not engaged with the crucial unanswered question about its political realm, moderator Simon Baptist, chief economist and Asia Regional Director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the crowd.

“We’re now onto coup number 12 and the fundamental schism that has not been dealt with through any of these conflicts is this point about who controls Thailand — is it the royal family and the elite or is it the democratic control through the masses?” he said.

Junya ‘Lek’ Yimprasert, a Thai labour rights activist who was charged with lèse majesté after she wrote Why I don’t Love the King in 2010, said that in order to deal with the country’s crisis, “We need to identify who has benefitted from this chaos, this confusion, and who has lost.” Some may cast Thailand as a developing and economic success story, but the country has a massive income gap, she noted via Skype, and it’s time to address the issue.

For Eugénie Mérieau, a lecturer in political sciences and law at the University of Sciences-Po in Paris who recently published The Red-Shirts of Thailand, a major problem for the country is the “veil of ignorance” thanks to the “royalist fairy tale” that dominates historical scholarship.

But things are shifting, Mérieau said.

“It’s like a great awakening. . . . The Thais have embarked on a journey of historical deconstruction,” she said. “This online world has just really opened their eyes and they’ve just started to realise that they were living in a world of untold stories, or in a world of lies.”

Claudio Sopranzetti, a postdoctoral fellow at Oxford University All Souls College and the author of Red Journeys: Inside the Thai Red-Shirt Movement, added that Thailand must now seriously engage with the unresolved question about who has the right to wage power — a “moral, charismatic figure” inside a palace or a mobilised, voting populace?

Along with the ever looming, if unspoken, issue of succession, Thailand has a number of other political events on the horizon. The military leaders have a deadline of next September for a new constitution and then there are promised elections by 2015, although they could be delayed to 2016. For the leaders and elites in Thailand, institutionalising power and being in a place to manage the succession will be key — but don’t count the people out, Marshall said.

“I think ordinary Thais will not accept this suspension of real democracy any longer, and we might see a real change in Thailand,” he said.

You can watch it online and listen again here:

In May 2014, Thailand underwent its 12th successful military coup since the establishment of a constitutional monarchy in 1932. This time, there has been no promise of a quick return to civilian rule; a spokesperson for the National Council of Peace and Order has stated that in Thailand’s current situation, normal democratic principles cannot be applied. In August, King Bhumibol officially endorsed General Prayuth Chan-ocha as the country’s Prime Minister.

As the country’s plans for political reform begin to take shape, we will be discussing the normalisation of coups in Thailand, the problematic issue of the country’s ageing king and the perennial conflict between the Thai elite and the rural majority.

We will be joined by a panel of experts to examine the root causes of Thailand’s ongoing political crisis and what actions, if any, can be taken to resolve it.

Chaired by Simon Baptist, chief economist and Asia Regional Director at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The panel:

Andrew MacGregor Marshall is a journalist, political risk consultant and corporate investigator, focusing mainly on Southeast Asia. He spent 17 years as a correspondent for Reuters, covering amongst others conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and political upheaval in Thailand. He is author of A Kingdom in Crisis.

Claudio Sopranzetti is a postdoctoral fellow at Oxford University All Souls College and the author of Red Journeys: Inside the Thai Red-Shirt Movement.

Eugénie Mérieau is a lecturer in political sciences and law at the University of Sciences-Po in Paris. She is also a political columnist for TV and print media. She recently published The Red-Shirts of Thailand.

Junya ‘Lek’ Yimprasert (via Skype) is a Thai labour rights activist who writes about exploitation at the bottom of supply chains. After the crackdown by military forces in Bangkok in May 2010 she wrote Why I don’t love the King and was charged with lès majesté. She is now a political refugee in Europe, she continues to denounce openly the military junta and interference of Monarchy in political life in Thailand.

Picture: Blanscape / Shutterstock.com

By Allan Williams

Former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega has until Monday to appeal against his extradition to Panama. The 77-year-old is currently serving a prison sentence in France after being convicted of money laundering in July 2010.

On Tuesday attention turns to Japan when the Parliament elects its sixth Prime Minister in five years. Incumbent Naoto Kan announced he was stepping down over plummeting approval ratings, following the earthquake and tsunami earlier this year.

Wednesday sees Canada release its second quarter GDP figures. Fears of the economy contracting grew following an announcement earlier this month that manufacturing sales declined 1.5per cent in June, to their lowest level since November 2010.

Also on Wednesday South African President Jacob Zuma makes a state visit to Norway at the invitation of King Harald V. The two-day trip includes a wreath-laying ceremony at the National Monument and a meeting with Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg.

In the UK, on Thursday, repatriations of deceased British troops move from RAF Lyneham to RAF Brize Norton. RAF Lyneham and the parade through the nearby town of Wootton Bassett have made the headlines with the dignified way locals have mourned the fallen.

In Thailand that same day, Chiranuch Premchaiporn, editor of the liberal news website Prachatai, has her trial for lese majeste offences recommence. It is alleged that Premchaiporn failed to screen comments on her website that were critical of the Thai royal family, and if convicted faces up to 20 years in prison.

Attention turns stateside on Friday, when a US district court decides whether to order a retrial of former baseball star Roger Clemens, who was accused of lying to Congress in 2008 when he denied using anabolic steroids. The original trial was declared a mistrial on 14 July.

In London on Saturday the far-right English Defence League are expected to demonstrate in the borough of Tower Hamlets, against what it sees as militant Islam. The march is expected to be banned by the Home Secretary, but the action group Unite Against Fascism has arranged a counter-protest against the EDL.

On Sunday the UN Special Representative on Somalia Augustine Mahiga convenes a conference in the east African nation to provide clear timelines and benchmarks for the Transitional Federal Institutions.

And in Germany there’s a test for Chancellor Merkel’s coalition when state elections take place in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with local elections coming under increasing scrutiny as a gauge of popularity for Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union.

The Kenji Nagai Award for Journalism was announced at the Burma Media Conference in Chiang Mai, Thailand this week. The Burma Media Association created the award to honour the Japanese video journalist who was killed on the streets of Rangoon by a Burmese soldier during the saffron revolution of September, 2007. The inaugral award goes to imprisoned reporter Eint Khaing Oo, who reported the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in May, 2008 for the Eco-vision journal,

She was arrested on June 10 last year while covering a peaceful rally by Nargis victims. Police accused her of taking photos of the victims with the intention of sending those pictures to foreign media.

Eint Khaing was charged with committing a crime against public tranquility and sentenced to two years’ imprisonment. According to her lawyer, Khin Maung Shein, she was merely doing her job. The news she reported was based on trustworthy sources and she did not send false news reports to other agencies. She is now in the notorious Insein Prison. link

Photograph of Eint Khaing Oo taken from Reporters without borders.

Interesting time to be in transit at Bangkok International airport (Suvarnabhumi) via BreakingNewsOn the Twitter channel of The Breaking News Wire confirmed on AFP
UPDATE: Looks like the airport is shutdown now.

“The second bomb came as security forces and journalists were rushing to the scene and killed a journalist,” [Sungai Kolok, police Major General Pongsak Nakwijit] told Channel 3 television. “The blast killed him,” Pongsak said, identifying the victim as Chalee Boonsawat, who worked for a Bangkok newspaper and a television station. He briefly worked for Reuters. Another senior security official told Channel 3 that three of the 30 wounded people were in serious condition. link