Monday 4 March

Monday will see the long-awaited opening of the Al Sweady inquiry, examining the circumstances surrounding a 2002 incident in Maysan province, Iraq, involving British security forces. Following a firefight on 14 May at a vehicle checkpoint known as Danny Boy, a number of Iraqis were taken to UK detention facility, Camp Abu Naji. There is a dispute over how many Iraqis were killed in the firefight, but the following day the British soldiers returned 20 bodies to the Iraqi authorities. There are accusations that several of the Iraqis may have died while in custody.

Meanwhile, eurozone finance ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday, with a bailout package for Cyprus high on the agenda now that elections there have been completed. The politics of a financial aid package are complicated by the fact that Cyprus is home to significant amount of Russian money, which many suspect is being laundered on the island.

Finally Monday, the posthumous trial of whistleblowing lawyer Sergey Magnitsky on tax evasion charges is scheduled to resume. Magnitsky died aged 37 in prison in November 2009 as he awaited trial. Critics suggest the charges were trumped up in retaliation for Magnitsky’s role in exposing an alleged $230m fraud that was linked to a Russian Interior Ministry official.

Tuesday 5  March

On Tuesday, the once-a-decade political transition that will see Xi Jinping formally appointed China’s President will reach its final stage when a two-week session of the National People’s Congress opens in Beijing.

Lastly, elections are scheduled to take place in the Federated States of Micronesia. Refreshingly, all candidates are non-partisan, since the country has no formal political parties.

Wednesday 6  March

On Wednesday, in Brasilia four of Brazil’s five main unions are scheduled to start a march to protest sluggish growth and to call for labour market reforms.

In Cairo, the once-high-profile trial of NGO workers charged with working for “illegal” civil society organisations will continue. The case disappeared from mainstream coverage once the 19 American citizens accused in the case were allowed to return to the US last March.

Finally, Israeli President Shimon Peres will be in Brussels on Wednesday, where he will meet with Herman Van Rompuy.

Thursday 7 March

On Thursday, British Foreign Secretary William Hague will host a Friends of Yemen meeting in London co-chaired by representatives from the Yemeni and Saudi governments. Other members of the grouping include Gulf Co-operation Council, G8 member states, the UN, EU, Arab League, IMF and the World Bank.

In finance, both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are scheduled to announce interest rate decisions.

Finally, in Brussels, Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso are scheduled to speak at a conference on the future of Europe, titled Europe 2020.

Friday 8 March

Following his 9 January sentencing, jailed businessman Christopher Tappin is due to begin serving a 33-month sentence relating to the sale of batteries used in Iranian missiles. He entered a guilty plea on 1 November 2012 to one count of aiding and abetting the illegal export of defence articles. Tappin may be allowed to serve his sentence in the UK; however a final ruling from the US Bureau of Prisons remains pending.

Lastly. the US will on Friday release its latest monthly unemployment figures, provoking the usual blame-game between Democrats and Republicans.

Weekend

On Saturday, nine policemen, including the former head of Port Said Security Directorate General Essam Samak, are among the remaining 54 defendants due to be sentenced over the 1 February violence at a match between Al Masry and Al Ahly football teams, which saw 74 Al Ahly supporters killed. The civilian defendants face charges of premeditated murder, while the police face charges of aiding the attackers. On 26 January, the court handed down 21 death sentences in connection to the incident, sparking widespread violence.

Finally, Sunday is the deadline for US special forces to leave Wardak province following President Hamid Karzai’s announcement on 24 February that they must leave over allegations of torture and murder. Previous such deadlines issued by Karzai have subsequently been revised.

Images Courtesy of Featureflash / ID1974 / Shutterstock.com

Monday 18 February

In Moscow, the posthumous trial of whistleblowing lawyer Sergey Magnitsky on tax evasion charges is scheduled to resume. Magnitsky died aged 37 in prison in November 2009 as he awaited trial. Critics suggest the charges were trumped up in retaliation for Magnitsky’s role in exposing an alleged $230m fraud that was linked to a Russian Interior Ministry official.

In Brussels, there is a debate on the EU’s long-term budget which will be attended by EU Council President Herman van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

In Turkey, the trial of pianist Fazil Say for insulting Islam on Twitter is scheduled to resume, having been adjourned last October when a request to have the case dismissed was rejected.

Finally, Armenians will head to the polls on Monday for presidential elections, with incumbent Serzh Sargysyan hoping to secure a second five-year term.

Tuesday 19 February

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, meanwhile, is scheduled to travel to Brussels for talks with EU High Representative Catherine Ashton. Although Syria is likely to come up in the talks, it seems highly unlikely that the meeting will produce any fundamental breakthrough in terms of reconciling the divergent positions of Moscow and Brussels vis-a-vis the conflict.

Finally, parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in Grenada.

Wednesday 20 February

China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi is scheduled to begin a three-day visit to Russia on Wednesday. Although there have been telephone talks between Moscow and Beijing since North Korea conducted its third nuclear test last Tuesday, the visit will provide the first opportunity for face-to-face talks between Yang and his Russian counterpart Lavrov on Pyongyang’s latest provocation to the international community.

Finally, in New York, Japanese electronics giant Sony is due to hold mysterious media event, which many speculate will be used to launch the PlayStation 4.

Thursday 21 February

In Brussels, NATO defence ministers will converge for a two-day meeting. It follows the announcement made in President Obama’s State of the Union address that a further 34,000 US troops would be home from Afghanistan by next February ahead of the scheduled end of NATO combat operations next December. The meeting may also provide an opportunity for informal discussions on Syria.

Finally, a highly-anticipated meeting of shareholders of the mining group Bumi is scheduled to take place on Thursday. The meeting was called by financier Nat Rothschild, who has been locked in a dispute with Indonesia’s powerful Bakrie family, with whom he co-founded the company. Rothschild was ousted from the board, but retains a significant stake in the group and is seeking to oust 12 of Bumi’s 14 board members.

Friday 22 February

In the US, an Irish nanny charged over the death of a baby in her care is scheduled to make a court appearance. Aisling McCarthy Brady is charged with the assault and battery of one-year-old Rehma Sabir, who died last month. Some have compared the case to that of Louise Woodward.

Finally, parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in the tiny east African nation Djibouti.

The weekend

The son-in-law of the Spanish king, Iñaki Urdangarin, has been ordered to appear before a magistrate in Mallorca on Saturday in connection to accusations of fraud and corruption at the Noos Institute, a charitable institution which he ran. Although he has not been formally charged, the connection of a royal to a case is the last thing the Spanish monarchy needs at the moment, given the dire economic situation many Spaniards are finding themselves in at the moment.

A round up of world news in the week ahead from journalist resource ForesightNews.

Monday 28 January

The case against former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who stands accused of paying for sex with the then 17-year-old call girl Karima el Mahroug (aka Ruby) continues Monday with a hearing in Milan at which Mahroug’s mother is expected to testify. Last week, further hearings were scheduled for March, meaning the case will now not conclude before general elections scheduled for 24-25 February.

In Moscow, meanwhile, a hearing is due to take place in the case against whistleblowing lawyer Sergey Magnitsky for tax evasion. This despite the fact that Magnitsky died whilst incarcerated in November 2009. He had previously testified against a Russian Interior Ministry official while exposing an alleged $230m fraud. His name was subsequently attached to a bill in the US limiting the activities of those thought to be linked to his plight, which in turn led to Russian President Vladimir Putin signing a bill restricting US adoptions of Russian children.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, with plenty on his plate given the French intervention in Mali, will host a conference on Syria in Paris on Monday. Representatives from the Syrian National Council will be in attendance.

Finally, in neighbouring Spain, an IMF team is due to arrive for a week-long visit in advance of a second monitoring report of reforms to the country’s banking sector.

Tuesday 29 January

On Tuesday, Joint United Nations-Arab League Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi is due to brief the UN Security Council in New York on his efforts to bring the conflict in Syria to an end. It follows a January 11 Triple B meeting (with US Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov) in Geneva that failed to make any substantive breakthrough.

Despite large protests in Paris against a proposed same-sex marriage bill on 13 January, the country’s National Assembly on Tuesday will take up the controversial bill. Discussions on the bill are scheduled to last until at least 10 February.

In Geneva, Israel’s human rights record is due to be scrutinised by the UN Human Rights Council. Israel has repeatedly accused the body of bias and is likely to boycott the process. The report – known as the Universal Periodic Review, is scheduled to be adopted on Thursday.

Finally on Tuesday, a donors’ conference for Mali will take place at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Wednesday 30 January

A further donors’ conference, this time for victims of the Syrian conflict, will take place on Wednesday in Kuwait. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who will attend the conference, has said he hopes to raise $1.5bn.

Spain, meanwhile, will release its GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2012. It follows unemployment data released last week that showed the overall rate of unemployment has risen to 26%. Youth unemployment, staggeringly, rose to just a shade under 60%.

Finally, in the United States, the Senate Judiciary Committee is due to hold the first of a series of hearings on gun violence in America following the Newtown massacre. This follows yet another combative diatribe from the NRA’s Wayne LaPierre last week, in which he described proposed curbs on automatic rifles and high capacity magazines as an assault on ‘God-given freedoms’, adding, ‘They belong to us as our birthright. No government ever gave them to us and no government can ever take them away.’

Thursday 31 January

On Thursday, Human Rights Watch is scheduled to release its annual World Report – this, as noted, on the same day the UN Human Rights Council report on Israel is due to be adopted.

Meanwhile, EU foreign ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels for their first meeting since British Prime Minister David Cameron promised to hold an in-out referendum on Britain’s membership.

In the US, former Nebraska Republican Senator Chuck Hagel is scheduled to appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee in what is expected to be a tense hearing to consider his nomination to replace Leon Panetta as US Secretary of Defense. Hagel’s previous comments on Israel and Iran in particular are likely to be questioned. He will also be asked about operations in Africa, particularly the campaign in Mali. Depending on whether North Korea follows through with its threat to test another nuclear device, this may also feature heavily.

Finally, outgoing US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled to deliver what may be her final big speech before stepping down from the post at the Council on Foreign Relations in DC. As with the Hagel nomination, Syria, Mali, Algeria, and North Korea will all likely feature.

Friday 1 February

On Friday, the IMF will at last take up the issue of the serious concerns raised over Argentina’s official inflation and growth data. Specifically, the Fund’s Executive Board is scheduled to consider a report submitted on 17 December by Managing Director Christine Lagarde on the progress made by Argentina in addressing these concerns. Lagarde has warned of ‘additional measures’ from the Fund should Argentina fail the test.

Key figures from the world of international security and diplomacy will convene for the prestigious Munich Security Conference from Friday. As usual, exactly who will be in attendance remains under wraps but if previous years are anything to go by, expect some seriously big-hitters to turn up.

Finally, highly-anticipated monthly unemployment data in the US will be released Friday.

Simone Simone / Shutterstock.com

It’s not easy to hear of how Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was killed.

“You need to be sitting down for this story” said chair, Edward Lucas, foreign correspondent with the Economist. “Could those people at the back find a space?”

William Browder was once the largest foreign portfolio investor in Russia with the Hermitage fund before he was thrown out of the country in 2005.

Sergei Magnitsky

“Twenty-five police officers raided my office in Moscow” Browder said, “and 25 more police officers raided the office of my American law firm. . . . One of the lawyers protested at the seizure of these documents and he was beaten so badly he was hospitalised for three weeks.”

Browder hired seven lawyers to find out more about the mess, one of them was a 36-year-old Sergei Magnitsky. They started an investigation that unearthed a high-level attempt to siphon a high-volume of funds. It was a complicated scheme that lead to a false tax refund of $230m that came – not from Browder‘s company but from the Russian taxpayer.

Six out of seven of Browder’s lawyers left  Russia for safety. Sergei Magnitsky decided to stay.

“He testified against the police officers who did the raid used to get the documents . . . and one month later the same police officers came to his home . . . and arrested him and put him in pre-trial detention and then began to torture him.”

He was later sent to the infamous Butyrka prison and got very sick after months of serious mistreatment.

“They did move him to a facility that had an emergency room but instead of treating him in an emergency room they put him in an isolation cell and chained him to a bed and allowed eight riot guards with rubber batons to beat him until he died.”

Browder is now trying to push the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act through US congress. If approved, this would allow assets of those responsible for his detention, abuse or death to be seized.

Corruption

Brutal truths about the Russian state unravel through the Magnitsky story. From a citizen’s point of view, bribery is a part of what Masha Gessen, author of a recent book on Putin, says is the “daily humiliation of living in Russia”.

But she said corruption in the country should be concerning from a strategic point of view, too.

“Russia happens to have one of the two largest arsenals of nuclear arms that’s reason enough to pay attention to the fact that . . . it’s extremely corrupt and on the brink of collapse.”

According to Browder the rot runs deep. He cites the beginnings of the investigation that ultimately led to Sergei Magnitsky’s murder.

“I discovered . . . that all the Russian companies I was investing in were basically losing all the money they should have been sharing with the shareholders with a bunch of corrupt officials and corrupt management.”

Putin

Gessen said the Russian president models government on the Russian spy agency – his former employer.

“I think Putin seriously believes that the KGB is the best thing ever invented. And he’s done everything in his power – and that’s a lot –  to re-shape Russia in the image of the KGB.

“The KGB’s a closed system, it’s best on personal connections and paranoia, where information comes in and doesn’t go out.”

This is the system that allowed Magnitsky’s death. As Browder said when asked by the audience what happened to his Russian investments, “I didn’t lose any money, I lost something far more precious; the life of a young man.”

Against a backdrop of growing discontent, and widespread allegations of fraud, Russia’s recent elections heralded Vladimir Putin’s re-election to the presidency. The man who many still saw as Russia’s de facto leader will now resume his tenure, four years after ostensibly ceding power to Dmitry Medvedev. 

In light of these developments a panel of experienced commentators gathered at the Frontline Club to assess the past, present and future of Putin’s Russia. The evening was chaired by Edward Lucas, The Economist’s Deputy International Editor, in discussion with Masha Gessen, a Russian-American journalist and author, and Bill Browder, an outspoken shareholder activist who was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005, when he was banned from the country.

Gessen, author of The Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin, described Putin’s Russia as a mafia state in which large-scale corruption at the top relies on small-scale corruption at the bottom. She claimed that Putin “thinks the KGB is the best thing that was ever invented”, adding that she saw him as pleonexic – in that he suffers from the insatiable desire to have what rightfully belongs to others.

Browder agreed, describing his own experience as “the story of how bad things have got in Russia, and emblematic of the bare face of Russia from the beginning to the end.” He began to withdraw his money when he realised that all of his companies were hemorrhaging money to corrupt officials. A saga ensued in which Russian police seized his assets, took control of his companies and – amongst other things – conspired to reclaim $230m that Browder’s companies had paid in tax.

What followed has now become an infamous tale of state corruption and brutality. Sergei Magnitsky, the lawyer investigating matters on Browder’s behalf, was imprisoned and eventually murdered in custody. 

His is not the only case of this kind, as Browder and Gessen observed, but the unfailing bureaucracy of all involved led to the publication of an exact account of the events, written by Magnitsky, and a list of those responsible. Lucas described the Magnitsky list as “one of the most effective fires lit under the regime”, and Browder summarised the reasons behind its impact: 

“The people who committed these crimes didn’t do it because of religious intolerance, or ideological intolerance. They did this for money.”

Browder suggested that the regime was unsustainable, given the prevalence of events like this, but the panel recognised the inherent difficulty in ensuring a genuine transition of power. Gessen offered her own analysis of the regime’s ability to adapt and protect itself:

“With the whole reset campaign of the last 3 years, there were a lot of people who fell into Medvedev’s trap. The best way to think of Putin and Medvedev is of a president and a first lady: the first lady gets to reach out to people, and perform humanitarian gestures. That humanitarian gesture deceived a lot of people.”

Despite this, Gessen noted that the West is an important influence, even to the most corrupt Russian officials:

“More important than anything else, it’s the place where they keep their money. You can’t keep your money in Russia, there is always somebody better connected than you are.”

And, as the question and answer period drew to a close, Lucas suggested that Putin’s hold on power might begin to loosen if another disaster on the scale of the Kursk or Beslan were to strike:

“He handles these situations very badly. The people who’ve got a huge stake in the survival of the regime may wonder if they can keep it going for a few more years by pushing him downwards or sideways.”

Watch the event here: