After a devastating defeat in the midterm elections, which saw the Democrats lose control of the Senate, what can we expect from President Barack Obama as he enters his final two years in office?

Will we see a president stuck in an endless deadlock with the Republicans preventing him from moving forward, or will he attempt to use his final two years to take bold action?

With events in Ferguson, Missouri, highlighting the deep racial divides that still exist in the US, we will be asking what the legacy will be of the country’s first African-American president. Our panel will be taking a view of the political landscape and debating what Obama can achieve in the next two years.

Chaired by Matt Frei, Europe editor and presenter at Channel 4 News. Previously be was Washington correspondent and is author of Italy: The Unfinished Revolution and Only In America.

The panel:

Xenia Wickett is the project director of the US project and the dean of The Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs at Chatham House. From 2001 to 2005, she served in the US State Department in numerous positions including in the Bureau of South Asia, the Bureau of Nonproliferation and the Homeland Security Group. After September 11, 2001 she was assigned to the Office of the Vice President (OVP) to work on homeland security.

Michael Goldfarb is a veteran journalist, and broadcaster. He has covered conflicts in the Balkans and Middle East and conflict resolution in Northern Ireland. His book Ahmad’s War, Ahmad’s Peace, about the Iraq War was a New York Times Notable. He has started his own production company making radio current affairs documentaries for the BBC.

Kim Ghattas is a BBC correspondent based in Washington covering global affairs. She was the BBC’s State Department correspondent from 2008 until 2013, traveling regularly with the Secretary of State. She is author of The New York Times best seller, The Secretary: A Journey with Hillary Clinton from Beirut to the Heart of American Power. She was previously a Middle East correspondent for the BBC and the Financial Times, based in Beirut.

Robert Carolina was elected chair of Democrats Abroad UK in 2011. He started his support of the Obama campaign in 2007, and went on to lead a number of Obama campaign efforts in the UK in 2008. He is a principal with Origin, a London-based international technology and intellectual property law firm.

In the wake of Sunday’s election victory for the PRI led by Enrique Peña Nieto, a transatlantic panel of experts arrived at the Frontline Club on Tuesday to wrestle with the challenges facing Mexico in 2012. Peña Nieto, the telegenic new president with the telenovela wife, has inherited a state supposedly at war with the drug cartels and struggling with mass poverty, unemployment and a stuttering economy.

Chaired by the BBC world affairs correspondent Katya Adler, the debate began with an assessment of whether the new president would lead the country in the style of former PRI leaders. Human Rights lawyer Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Contreras said there were already indications that the country had revived old habits last seen under the PRI:

 "They claim to be a new PRI but we’ve already seen they’re using tactics of the old PRI. The first images we saw in the news today were people changing up their credit notes."

The Guardian’s Ed Vulliamy quipped:

"The jury’s out on the new PRI. It’s kind of Peronism…with Alistair Campbell, Steve Hilton packaging and stuck on the front of Hello magazine."

Peña Nieto’s approach to dealing with the drug cartels was the next point up for discussion. Academic Peter Watt argued Peña Nieto will be facing drug cartels that have seen their power increase exponentially in the previous decade.

"The relationship has changed over the last 10 years…they are so powerful now that they see politicians and police as their staff".

Vulliamy added that the gangs have been operating with impunity and were resorting to disturbingly violent methods.

"There are new levels of depravity; a depraved violence and depraved livelihoods and it comes from the top. We’re seeing a post-modern post-political collapse. It is a lie to demarcate legal and illegal economies. The "war on drugs" is a lie."

Human Rights lawyer Silvia Vazquez concurred that Calderon’s war on drugs was nothing of the sort:

"Most people being taken to court and imprisoned in the war against drugs end up being found innocent and being freed after 1, 2 or 3 years."

Adler steered the discussion towards the future of the US-Mexico relationship. Amnesty’s Rupert Knox argued that the mutual mishandling of the gun-running between the two countries needed to be addressed

"The US lost track of about 80,000 arms that went across the border. They were completely negligent in managing this process. But the Mexicans did absolutely nothing about it."

The debate then opened up to the audience, encompassing questions on decriminalisation and the probability of Mexico’s violence spilling into the rest of Central America. The panel touched on the bleak outlook facing the Mexican youth and Vazquez stressed this in her closing remarks.

"In the first place you have to fight poverty, establish economic stability, establish human rights and establish a culture of training Mexicans from primary school level through to University."

Watch the full event here:

By Nicole Hunt

European leaders gather in Brussels on Monday for an informal meeting of the European Council, during which discussions are set to focus on jobs and the new fiscal stabilisation treaty agreed at their controversial meeting last month. Leaders are planning to iron out the details of the treaty at the meeting, in hopes that it’ll be ready to sign by the time they meet again on 1 March.

While all eyes are on Brussels, two big trials are before the courts in South Africa. In Ventersdorp, Chris Mahlangu and an unnamed teenager are back on trial for the April 2010 murder of Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB) leader Eugene Terre’Blanche, postponed from October to allow more time for hearings.

Meanwhile, Henry Okah, former Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) leader, goes on trial in Johannesburg on terrorism charges in connection with the October 2010 Independence Day bombings in Abuja, Nigeria, which killed 12 people.

Monday is also the 40th anniversary of Bloody Sunday.

Spanish Magistrate Baltasar Garzon’s abuse of power trial resumes on Tuesday, with the judge himself expected to begin testifying if some preliminary matters are cleared up earlier in the day. There is speculation that the verdict for Garzon’s illegal wiretapping case – which was head on 17 January – could be delivered before Tuesday’s hearing.

The annual Herzliya policy conference kicks off in Jerusalem. Speakers throughout the three-day conference include Israeli President Shimon Peres, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle.

Wednesday is all about Supreme Courts. Wikileaks founder Julian Assange begins a two-day hearing at the UK Supreme Court in London, appealing a 24 February, 2010 decision to extradite him to Sweden to face questioning on charges of sexual assault. The court is expected to reserve judgement after the hearing wraps up on Thursday, meaning the legal saga won’t quite be over yet.

In Islamabad, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is back before the Supreme Court, which is looking into his government’s decision not to investigate corruption among politicians after passing a controversial amnesty law in 2007 known as the National Reconciliation Ordinance. Gilani appeared before the court briefly on 19 January.

A North Korean prisoner amnesty begins on Wednesday, as part of celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of the birth of recently-deceased Kim Jong-Il in February and the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-Sung in April.

NATO Defence Ministers begin a two-day meeting in Brussels on Thursday. Discussions are expected to focus on Afghanistan and security transition following the 20 January attack on French troops by an Afghan soldier, which killed four.

Kuwaitis go to the polls to elect 50 members to Parliament. Emir Sheikh Sabah al Ahmad al Sabah dissolved Parliament by decree on 6 December, 2011 citing ‘deteriorating conditions in the country’. 50 members are elected for four-year terms. Four women were elected for the first time in the country’s last elections, which took place in 2009.

On Friday, The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia hears the appeal for Khmer Rouge Special Branch Chief Kaing Guek Eav, aka Duch, who was convicted of crimes against humanity and grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions in July 2010. Duch, who was head of the infamous Tuol Sleng prison camp, was sentenced to 35 years in prison over the deaths of up to two million people during the 1975-79 Khmer Rouge regime.

The three-day Munich Security Conference begins Friday; though there’s no word yet on this year’s attendees, the guest list always features the great and good of international politics and defence (or at least the important). The MSC is often the site of important policy announcements, so is well worth looking out for.

Anti-Kremlin groups are scheduled to hold their latest protest in Moscow on Saturday, this one timed to coincide with the two-month anniversary of disputed parliamentary elections on 4 December, and with one month to go until presidential elections on 4 March almost certainly see Vladimir Putin return to the helm.

The month and a half long Rugby 6 Nations tournament begins, with France, Engand, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Italy hoping to end up in the 17 March final. England won the tournament in 2011.

The week closes with the runoff for the Finnish presidential race, following a first round vote on 22 January. Former Finance Minister Sauli Niinisto, who won 37 per cent of the first vote, faces off against Green party candidate Pekka Haavisto, who won 19 per cent of the vote.

By Nicole Hunt

Monday looks to be the biggest day of what should be an interesting week internationally. Kicking off with the ongoing EU debt crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Berlin to iron out amendments to the new EU fiscal stability treaty that was agreed last month.

Italian bank Unicredit opens its €7.5bn rights issue, having discounted shares by about 43 per cent in a bid to raise funds. Investors will be watching the sale closely to gauge market support for European banks.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak begins a three-day visit to China at the invitation of President Hu Jintao. Discussions are expected to focus heavily on regional security in the wake of the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s sodomy trial, which has dragged on for nearly two years, finally comes to an end as the jury is scheduled to deliver its verdict in Kuala Lumpur. In addition to Ibrahim’s freedom – he faces up to 20 years in prison if found guilty – the verdict will also determine who will run against Prime Minister Najib Razak in the country’s next elections, which are not due until June 2013 but look increasingly likely to be called this year.

Attentions turn Stateside on Tuesday as New Hampshire Republicans cast their ballots in the presidential primary. Following the 3 January Iowa Caucus, in which Mitt Romney beat Rick Santorum by just eight votes, Michelle Bachman announced that she was dropping out of the race.

In Washington, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists announces whether to move the minute hand on the Doomsday Clock, which represents how close humanity is to ‘catastrophic destruction’. The last time the clock was moved, in January 2010, the BAS’ outlook was somewhat positive, moving the minute hand back one minute from five to six minutes before midnight.

Tuesday also marks the 10th anniversary of the arrival of the first detainees at the Guantánamo Bay detention centre.

The High Court in London is expected to rule on Wednesday whether the Occupy London protesters can remain in their camp outside of St Paul’s Cathedral. Despite legal action from the City of London Corporation, the camp has been in place since 15 October.

The World Economic Forum releases its annual Global Risk Report ahead of the Davos Forum, which opens on 25 January. Last year’s report found that the financial crisis had ‘drained’ the world’s ability to deal with shocks.

The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets in Frankfurt on Thursday to decide whether to raise, lower, or maintain the euro area’s interest rate. After last month’s meeting, during which the interest rate was decreased to 1 per cent, ECB President Mario Draghi announced major refinancing operations to support bank lending and market activity.

Alleged al Qaeda member Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, who pled guilty in October to attempting to set off an explosive device in his underwear on a Detroit flight on Christmas Day in 2009, is sentenced in Detroit.

India is hoping to celebrate a milestone anniversary on Friday. If no new cases of polio are reported between now and then, the country will mark its first-ever year without any new cases. The World Health Organisation considers a disease to be eradicated when no new cases are reported for three consecutive years. Apple is set for a massive sales boost as the iPhone 4S goes on sale in China and 21 other countries in South America, the Caribbean and Africa.

Apple is set for a massive sales boost as the iPhone 4S goes on sale in China and 21 other countries in South America, the Caribbean and Africa.

Saturday marks the one year anniversary of the resignation of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, whose 23-year rule was ended after nearly a month of protests dubbed the Jasmine Revolution. The success of protests in Tunisia spurred similar movements across the region, with widely varying results in Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco and Syria.

In Taiwan, voters go to the polls to elect a new President for a four year term. Incumbent Ma Ying-jeou faces challenges from China-sceptic Tsai Ing-wen and pro-Beijing James Soong.

Elections also take place in Kazakhstan on Sunday, following President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s snap decision to dissolve Parliament on 16 November. The vote is expected to see at least one opposition party enter Parliament, usually dominated by Nazarvbaeyev’s Nur Otan party, though that party is likely to be close ally Ak Zholl.

By Nicole Hunt

Here’s a special two-week roundup of big international events planned over the holiday period. While we can’t predict tsunamis, terrorist attacks, or sudden political change, we can give you a heads up on the big stories that are sure to go ahead.

Following last week’s Commonwealth of Independent States and Gorbachev resignation anniversaries, Boxing Day formally marks the 20^th anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Soviet parliament voted the USSR out of existence on 26 December, 1991.

Indian anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare has pledged to begin a public fast on 27 December to coincide with an extended session of the Indian Parliament scheduled to debate a new anti-corruption bill. The Jan Lokpal Bill was drafted earlier this year after a five-day hunger strike by Hazare prompted nationwide protests.

Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s trial resumes on 28 December after a long hiatus to allow lawyers for the families of victims to challenge the trial judge and venue. The challenges were rejected on 7 December, so the trial starts back up today before Judge Ahmed Refaat.

The funeral for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il takes place on 28 December. If the usual military displays and the public mourning since Kim’s death are anything to go by, it’s sure to be a spectacular event.

North Korea’s mourning period officially ends on 29 December, and will be marked by a gun salute, three minutes of silence nationwide, and the simultaneous sounding of the horns of all trains and ships in the country.

31 December marks the deadline issued by the Tripoli Council for the city’s residents to hand in any weapons they may be holding on to. The move is part of a push to disarm the city, which has been plagued by gun battles between rival militias since the declaration of liberation.

The controversial ban on bullfighting in Catalonia, which was approved on 28 July, 2010, comes into effect on 1 January. Catalonia is the first region in mainland Spain to outlaw the sport, which it has done on the grounds of animal cruelty.

There are two big polls scheduled for 3 January. Iowa Republicans gather statewide to kick-off the selection process for the Republican presidential nominee. The race has been and remains unpredictable; recent polls have alternately shown Mitt Romney, Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich leading in the Hawkeye State. Voters seem unable to settle on any particular candidate and there are no signs of this changing in the next 10 days.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s nine remaining provinces take their turns at the ballot box following two earlier rounds in the country’s other 18 regions. Preliminary results from the earlier rounds indicated strong support for the Muslim Brotherhood, but the full make-up of the People’s Assembly won’t be known until later this month.

The African National Congress kicks off three days of celebrations on 6 January to celebrate the party’s 100^th anniversary. The ANC was founded in 1912 to help further the rights of South Africa’s black population, and first came to power under Nelson Mandela in 1994. President Jacob Zuma delivers the Centennial address on 8 January.

By Nicole Hunt

EU and Ukrainian officials meet in Kiev on Monday for the annual EU-Ukraine Summit, with rumours abound that President Viktor Yanukovych is planning to skip the meeting in favour of the EurAsEC summit taking place in Moscow on the same day. Yanukovych’s planned visit to Brussels in Octoberwas delayed after opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko was convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison on what the EU says are politically motivated charges.

The Gulf Cooperation Council holds its annual summit in Riyadh, the first formal meeting of leaders since the beginning of the Arab Spring last year. The meeting begins on the same day that the UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss sanctions against Iran and receive a briefing from Jamal Benomar, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen.

Leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States meet in Moscow on Tuesday to celebrate the organisation’s 20th anniversary. The CIS was formed out of the dissolution of the Soviet Union; the initial agreement was signed by Belarus, Russia and Ukraine on 8 December, 1991, while eight more former Soviet republics joined on 21 December.

In Tripoli, Tuesday marks the deadline issued by the government and the Tripoli Council for rogue, non-Tripoli based militias to disarm and leave the city. Despite the announcement of the deadline on 6 December, clashes between militias and security forces have continued unabated.

Pending the confirmation of election results by the Supreme Court of the Democratic Republic of Congo on 17 December, President Joseph Kabila is scheduled to be sworn in for a second term in Kinshasa. International observers have raised concerns about the validity of the country’s 28 November election.

The long-awaited verdict in the ‘Government I’ genocide trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda is handed down on Wednesday in Arusha. Former Interior Minister Edouard Karemera and former President of the MRND political party Mathieu Ngirumpatse are accused of recruiting and arming the Interahamwe militia and disseminating Hutu Power propaganda.

The European Central Bank holds the first of two 36-month longer-term refinancing operations announced by ECB President Mario Draghi on 8 December as part of a series of measures to support bank lending and market activities. The LTRO comes on the same day that Italy releases Q3 GDP figures; the preliminary figures had been due in November, but were not released amid political turmoil.

Palestinian leaders meet in Cairo on Thursday, with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas expected to chair the first meeting of what would be a unified Palestinian decision-making body in place until elections are held in May 2012. Members of the Palestinian National Council, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation’s executive boards and the directors-general of various Palestinian factions are scheduled to attend.

Amid weeks of protests against the recent parliamentary elections, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gives his annual state of the nation address in Moscow.

On Friday, the South Korean military is set to turn on the lights on three giant steel Christmas trees placed at points along the country’s border with North Korea. Pyongyang has reportedly called the trees a form of ‘psychological warfare’ and has threatened ‘unexpected consequences’ if the lighting goes ahead.

Activists in Russia have planned another mass protest against the 4 December elections on Saturday, after an estimated 50,000 people turned out for the 10 December demonstration, which was organised on Facebook. The tens of thousands already signed up to attend have clearly not been swayed by President Dmitry Medvedev’s pledge to investigate allegations of electoral fraud.

Sunday is, of course, Christmas Day. While millions worldwide will be focusing on egg nog, Christmas pudding and what Santa’s left under the tree, Pakistani cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan will be addressing a rally in Karachi, where he is said to be launching a ‘revolutionary manifesto’ ahead of elections in 2013.

Sunday also marks the 20th anniversary of the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev, who had been President of the Soviet Union from October 1988. Gorbachev’s resignation came a day before the USSR was formally dissolved on 26 December, 1991.

By Nicole Hunt

The UN Human Rights Committee session opens on Monday in Geneva, with the situation in Iran on the agenda for the first two days.

Meanwhile, Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos begins a five day visit to North Korea, which is currently suffering through a major food crisis.

A judge in Courbevoie, France is due to rule on whether L’Oréal heiress Liliane Bettencourt should be made a ward of the state following accusations by her daughter Françoise that she is mentally unfit to manage her €17bn fortune.

South African President Jacob Zuma hosts Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Pretoria on Tuesday for a trilateral summit, expected to focus mostly on trade.

The meeting comes on the same day that fellow BRICS country China releases its third quarter GDP figures. 

In London, judges reveal the winner of this year’s Man Booker Prize for Fiction; nominees include Julian Barnes, Carol Birch, Patrick deWitt, Esi Edugyan and Stephen Kelman.

The Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh begin a 10-day trip to Australia on Wednesday, heading first to Canberra. During their visit, the royal couple will also take in Brisbane and Melbourne before heading to Perth for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting on 28 October.

Greek public and private sector unions hold a 24-hour strike to protest what they say are ‘barbaric’ austerity measures being introduced as part of the Government’s efforts to meet the conditions of its €110bn bailout from the IMF, the EU and the European Central Bank.

EU Commissioner for Internal Markets Michel Bernier holds a press conference in Brussels on Thursday to present the Commission’s proposals for reforms to the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and the Market Abuse Directive. The reforms are aimed at strengthening the EU regulatory system and increasing oversight in the wake of the financial crisis.

The European Space Agency is having a more exciting day in Kourou, French Guiana, where the first two Galileo satellites are being test-launched at 12:34pm. The full satellite project is expected to be operational by 2014.

News Corporation holds its annual general meeting in Los Angeles on Friday, amid calls from some shareholder groups to vote against the re-election of CEO Rupert Murdoch’s sons James and Lachlan to the company’s board in the wake of the UK phone hacking scandal.

In Abu Dhabi, Finance Ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council begin a two-day meeting where they discuss proposals for a single Gulf currency. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde attends on the second day.

Remember the apocalypse hysteria back in May? When the world failed to end, preacher Harold Camping revised his prediction, and is now confident that the world will in fact end on 21 October.

Assuming we’re still here, attention turns to Cairo on Saturday where the court hearing resumes for two police officers charged over the death of Khaled Said. The verdict in the case, which prompted widespread protests against police impunity last year, has been delayed twice, most recently from 24 September after new evidence emerged.

Unusually, there’s quite a lot going on on Sunday, beginning with the delayed European Council and Eurogroup meetings in Brussels. Predictably, Greece and the euro debt crisis are at the top of the agenda, with leaders focusing on economic governance and financial regulation.

Following an international uproar over five to 15 year sentences for Bahraini medical staff convicted of inciting hatred against the regime and attempting to topple the monarchy during anti-government protests earlier this year, a civil re-trial ordered by the country’s Attorney General begins in Manama.

There are also four elections taking place across the world: parliamentary polls in Tunisia, which were scheduled in the wake of President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali’s resignation back in January; a general election in Argentina, where incumbent Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is expected to win a second term; a presidential election in Bulgaria, where current President Georgi Parvanov is not eligible for a third term; and federal elections in Switzerland, where 13 parties are currently represented in parliament.

To top it off, the Rugby World Cup final takes place in Auckland.

By Nicole Hunt

This week is filled with high-profile trials and judgements around the world, kicking off on Monday with six big-name hearings, including several former world leaders: ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, his sons and former Interior Minister Habib Al Adly are all on trial over protester deaths in Cairo; former French President Jacques Chirac’s corruption trial resumes in Paris; former Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde’s trial for negligence over the country’s banking collapse starts in Reykjavik; former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa’s ‘Patria’ corruption trial begins in Ljubljana; Rwandan opposition leader Victoire Ingabire goes on trial in Kigali for promoting genocide; and Sizwe Mankazana, who was driving the car which crashed and killed Nelson Mandela’s great-granddaugther on the eve of last year’s World Cup faces the court in Johannesburg.

The focus is on austerity in Europe on Tuesday, as Italy braces for a general strike over debt-cutting measures proposed by Silvio Berlusconi’s government.

In Berlin, the German government begins a four-day debate of its 2012 budget. Wednesday’s general debate with Chancellor Angela Merkel coincides with the country’s Contitutional Court’s decision on a constitutional challenge to a May 2010 law guaranteeing the maintenance of Greece’s financial stability and solvency, authorising up to €22.4bn in loans.

In Algiers, the Algerian government hosts a two-day conferennce on regional security, focusing on the threat from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Back to the Paris courts on Thursday, where the verdict is expected in the trial of disgraced fashion designer John Galliano, who is accused of hurling anti-Semitic abuse at a member of the public in February.

Meanwhile, a hearing is scheduled to formalise the extradition of former Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega, who was convicted of money laundering last summer and sentenced to seven years in prison. He is expected to be sent back to Panama, where he has been sentenced in absentia to 60 years in prison for human rights violations committed between 1983 and 1989.

G7 Finance Ministers begin a two-day meeting in Marseille on Friday. Officials from the EU, IMF and World Bank also attend to discuss issues ahead of the IMF/World Bank annual autumn meetings later this month.

The Rugby World Cup kicks off in Auckland with New Zealand v Tonga. The tournament runs until 23, October.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou delivers his annual economic address at the Thessaloniki Trade Fair on Saturday. Unions and activists plan to hold demonstrations outside the fair, protesting against the government’s austerity measures.

Sunday marks the 10th anniversary of the 11 September, 2001 attacks on the United States. President Barack Obama and former President George W Bush are among those attending a memorial service at Ground Zero, which begins at 8:40am EDT to mark the time the first plane hit the North Tower of the World Trade Centre.

While all eyes are on the US, Guatemalans will quietly elect a new President. A planned bid by Sandra Torres, ex-wife of current President Alvaro Colom, was ruled unconstitutional. The couple divorced to enable Torres to run, hoping to circumvent a law that ruled the President’s spouse ineligible.

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There has not yet been a full revolution in Egypt, but it will be the sense of optimism and possibility of change that brought the country to its current state that will enable the people to overcome the challenges ahead.

There is a need for massive economic change, the army remains "on top and in the driving seat" but British-Egyptian actor, producer and activist Khalid Abdalla said at the Frontline Club on Tuesday that it was his "duty" to remain optimistic because that is what had changed since people took to the streets on 25 January and toppled President Hosni Mubarak 18 days later.

"Right now, in terms of a revolution, in terms of a revolutionary spirit, the ability to go down into the streets in huge numbers to force sweeping change, to believe that that is possible right now, we are in a hiaitus," said Abdalla.

"There is a confusion right now amongst activists and people who were working to make change as to whether we begin to focus on elections, or do we still focus on many of the important human rights issues, like military trials and freedom of speech."

Brian Whitaker, The Guardian‘s Middle East editor from 2000-2007, who is currently an editor on the paper’s Comment Is Free section, said that when he was researching for his book What’s Really Wrong with the Middle East  there was a sense that there was nothing that could be done:

"The real revolutionary change that’s happened is that that has simply gone away. There’s now an attitude that there are things that can be done if enough people get on with it."

Dr Maha Azzam, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House agreed that optimism and energy were "fundamental" in order to carry through change and bring about revolution.

But the situation remains a "mixed picture" because of those elements of society that want security and stability, said Dr Azzam, who said it was important that the activists continue to set the agenda in the face of attempts to quell the opposition:

"The street is in the more powerful position because it can still twist the arm of the military, by which I mean the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, because they are in a vulnerable position. They’re of a dying generation, both in terms of age, but also in terms of its mentality and politics. Each time it’s felt it’s cornered it made concessions. It’s not an easy task to put on the activists, but the street is theirs, the right to protest is a democratic right and so long as they continue down that path, they can embrace thier objectives and push for them."

Rosemary Hollis, professor of Middle East policy studies and director of the Olive Tree Programme at City University, said that it was now "completely beyond the power" of Westerners to control the narrative:

"It already was, and now the Arabs have risen up and said even less so because the revolutions were against the dictators that [the West] kept at its convenience."

But no one in the region is buying the idea that more liveral capitalism the way the Europeans do it is the answer, unless the Europeans recognise that they have had certain advantages structurally, globally that are going to have to be given up now.

… the structural changes that will have to be made will go down very poorly with  with the liberal capitalist governments in Europe because they will want to say the poor will have to take the pain in order to restructure the economy and of course the rich have to get richer because you have to encourage them to invest."

Khalid Abdalla agreed that there was a strong relationship between what happened in the Middle East and the crisis of capitalism world over and that what was happening in the Middle East was a "restructuring of discourses" that was forcing the West to reappraise itself, not just its relationships with the region but in many policy areas.

Currently activists are under attack and being accused of being foreign spies or funded by foreign regimes said  Abadalla, adding that there were problems with well meaning people coming from the West wanting to help or donate funds.

First of all there is the major issue that coming to Egypt can be unhelpful because right now it is being used politically, but also secondly,  I don’t think the West on the whole and its NGOs and policy makers have yet woken up to what the revolutions in the Arab world are telling them to realise about themselves and I think that’s something that will take lots of time. 

 

By Jasper Smith

As eurozone leaders continue efforts to counter turmoil in the financial markets, a team of inspectors from the IMF and EU are due to arrive in Athens on Monday to assess Greek efforts to sort out their public finances.

Across the Atlantic, Tuesday sees Dominique Strauss-Kahn back in court in New York on rape charges stemming from an incident back in May at the Sofitel Hotel. Prosecutors are said to be considering dropping charges due to supposed weaknesses of his accuser’s testimony.

Also Tuesday, Liberians vote in a referendum on proposed changes to the West African nation’s constitution.

Back in Europe, French President Nicolas Sarkozy is due to finalise plans on Wednesday to reduce his country’s deficit. Sarkozy was forced to return suddenly from holiday amid (apparently unfounded) rumours that France would be the next major economy to lose its triple A credit rating.

In Jerusalem, outspoken Republican commentator Glenn Beck is scheduled to hold his ‘Restoring Courage’ rally.

Meanwhile, at its headquarters in Ethiopia, on Thursday the African Union is holding a pledging conference to raise funds for the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa.

At the International Criminal Court in The Hague, closing arguments are due to wrap up on Friday in the case against Thomas Lubanga, alleged leader the Union of Congolese Patriots. He faces war crimes charges over allegedly conscripting child soldiers in the DRC.

Saturday sees the ‘Tea Party Express’ bus tour kick off with a rally in Napa, California.

Finally, on Sunday, captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit turns 25. Hamas has held him since 25 June, 2006 when he was just 19.