Monday 11 March

On Monday, a two-day referendum on the political status of the Falklands Islands wraps-up, with the results due that evening. The referendum is largely symbolic, since the islanders overwhelmingly favour retaining their status as an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom. The Argentine government, predictably, has already said it considers the poll a farce and it that it will continue to pursue its claim to sovereignty regardless of the outcome. Expect some chest-beating in Buenos Aires.

Also Monday, the US and South Korea are scheduled to begin an annual joint military exercise called Key Resolve. The exercise, which runs until 21 March and involves about 13,500 troops from the two nations, comes at a particularly tense time in the peninsula following the 12 February nuclear test in North Korea and the subsequent tightening of UN sanctions against the secretive communist state, which were approved on 7 March.

Monday is also a big day at the UN Human Rights Council session taking place in Geneva. Reports on North Korea, Syria, Myanmar (Burma) and Iran are all due to be considered on Monday. There is a press conference with the  Commission of Inquiry on Syria scheduled. It follows the announcement last week that the number of refugees from the conflict has surpassed the million-person mark.

EU Foreign Ministers are also due to meet Monday, with Syria a particular focus. Joint UN-Arab League Special Envoy for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi will brief ministers at a lunch before the meeting.

Tuesday 12 March

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, will host the leader of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia for talks in Moscow. He is also due to meet today with the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan who is making his first visit abroad since securing re-election last month. This choice of location for the trip is a clear affirmation of the close – and geo-politically significant – ties between Yerevan and Moscow.

Finally Tuesday, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is scheduled to arrive in Algeria where she will pay a three-day visit.

Wednesday 13 March

On Wednesday, British Foreign and Defence Secretaries William Hague and Philip Hammond will be hosting their Russian counterparts Sergey Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu for talks in London, the first talks in this ‘2+2’ format. Syria is likely to be high on the agenda, although cynics might suggest the UK has little influence over Russia in this, or any, regard. Another topic that may be discussed privately is the ongoing inquest into the murder of Alexander Litvinenko (a procedural hearing in that inquest takes place on Thursday).

Finally, in the United States the Senate Armed Services Committee is scheduled to hold what is expected to be a highly emotive hearing on sexual assault in the military, with three of the witnesses giving testimony at the hearing being victims of abuse themselves.

Thursday 14 March

EU leaders will descend upon Brussels again on Thursday for their second meeting of the year, and the first since the Italian elections that failed to produce a clear victor and threaten to derail what was looking like a significantly more positive year for the region. It will also be UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s first opportunity to meet with counterparts since his Chancellor George Osborne failed to extract any significant concessions on the proposed cap on bankers’ bonuses that is scheduled to take effect in 2014.

Finally, Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in Moscow. Russia currently holds the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council and has said it wants to make progress in the Middle East Peace Process a priority of its presidency.

Friday 15 March

The Italian parliament is scheduled to reconvene on Friday following the elections held at the end of February. Discussions on possible coalitions will begin in earnest the following week – likely on 21 March – hosted by outgoing Italian President Giorgio Napolitano. Many fear further elections later in the year are inevitable.

Friday also marks two years since the start of the Syrian uprising which has since descended into a horrific bloodbath which the international community appears powerless to stop.

Weekend

Saturday also marks the deadline for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form a coalition, after he was forced to seek a two-week extension on March 2. Although both Israeli and US officials have issued public declarations suggesting a failure to form a government would not imperil the visit the following week by Barack Obama, others are not so sure.

Finally, as noted earlier, the 12th National People’s Congress closes in Beijing, with votes on draft resolutions and a closing ceremony, marking the culmination of the once –in-a-decade leadership transition in China.

Some images courtesy of Vasily Smirnov / Shutterstock.com

By Nicole Hunt

New week, New Year – the Chinese Year of the Dragon, that is.

But while weeks of celebrations are kicking off in China, the mood will be considerably less celebratory in Brussels, where the EU foreign ministers and euro area finance ministers are holding monthly meetings. The Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to discuss new sanctions against Iran, including the possibility of imposing sanctions on Iranian oil, while finance ministers will hear from Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti on his government’s plans for economic and labour reforms.

In Cairo, the Egyptian parliament holds its first sitting following marathon elections between November and January. The need for re-votes and subsequent delays in results reporting means the full make-up of the National Assembly is still unknown, though it’s likely to be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Libyan authorities have until Monday to submit information to the International Criminal Court in The Hague on the conditions of Saif al Islam Gaddafi’s arrest and detention, and to notify the court whether they intend to hand him over for trial. Gaddafi has been indicted by the ICC on charges of crimes against humanity.

Spanish Magistrate Baltasar Garzon, who went on trial last week on charges of illegal phone tapping, is back before the court on Tuesday to face the allegations that originally saw him suspended last spring. Right-wing lobby groups have accused Garzon of overstepping his judicial authority by investigating disappearances under Franco’s regime despite a 1977 amnesty.

US President Barack Obama delivers the final State of the Union address of his first term in Washington. While no details of the speech have been released (other than that Obama will follow it up with a five-city tour through the battleground states of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Michigan), the focus is likely to be on the economy and employment.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel opens the World Economic Forum Meeting, better known as Davos, on Wednesday. The annual gathering attracts heads of state and government from across the world, with nearly 40 leaders expected to attend this year alongside IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, Arab League Secretary General Nabil El Araby and Archbishop Desmond Tutu.

Despite the star-studded Davos meeting, all eyes will be on Cairo as the Egyptian revolution marks its first anniversary. However, the mood is likely to be less celebratory than would be expected, as protesters have grown impatient with the rate at which power is being transferred from the military to civilians, as well as the ongoing trial of former President Hosni Mubarak, and activists have continued to clash with police in recent months.

Thursday is a much quieter anniversary, marking one year since the first, tentative protests in Syria, where the death toll has now reached somewhere between 5,000 and 6,500. Widespread demonstrations did not take place in Damascus until 15 March, which is considered the beginning ofthe Syrian uprising, but smaller gatherings were held on 26 January, inspired by Tunisia and Egypt.

Thursday is also seen as a key deadline in the Middle East Quartet’s plan for the progress of peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian officials. The parties are supposed to have put forward ‘comprehensive proposals’ on border and security improvements by now, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has demanded that a settlement freeze be put in place.

Senegal’s Constitutional Court is scheduled to make a decision on Friday as to the eligibility of candidates for the country’s 26 February presidential election. Incumbent President Abdoulauye Wade maintains that since he was first elected in 2000, three years before the introduction of a two-term limit, he is still eligible to run for another term (despite re-election in 2007). Singer Youssou N’dour is also among candidates.

After a delay of over a month, Silvio Berlusconi’s trial for paying for underage sex resumes in Milan. Both sides will be looking ahead to a 7 February hearing, during which the Constitutional Court is due to hear a motion brought by the Senate requesting that the case be moved to a special minister’s court.

The Cuban Communist Party holds its national convention on Saturday, the first since Raul Castro succeeded his brother Fidel as the Party’s Secretary General last year.

Saturday also marks 100 days since the death of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

With the lower house elections over and Parliament in place, Egypt begins the first round of voting for the upper house or Shura Council on Sunday. A second stage of elections will be held 14-15 February, with runoffs scheduled for both stages, if necessary. Plans for a three-stage vote, in line with the lower house elections, were abandoned in favour of a shorter timeline that will see the Shura Council sitting by 28 February.

By Nicole Hunt

EU and Ukrainian officials meet in Kiev on Monday for the annual EU-Ukraine Summit, with rumours abound that President Viktor Yanukovych is planning to skip the meeting in favour of the EurAsEC summit taking place in Moscow on the same day. Yanukovych’s planned visit to Brussels in Octoberwas delayed after opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko was convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison on what the EU says are politically motivated charges.

The Gulf Cooperation Council holds its annual summit in Riyadh, the first formal meeting of leaders since the beginning of the Arab Spring last year. The meeting begins on the same day that the UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss sanctions against Iran and receive a briefing from Jamal Benomar, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen.

Leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States meet in Moscow on Tuesday to celebrate the organisation’s 20th anniversary. The CIS was formed out of the dissolution of the Soviet Union; the initial agreement was signed by Belarus, Russia and Ukraine on 8 December, 1991, while eight more former Soviet republics joined on 21 December.

In Tripoli, Tuesday marks the deadline issued by the government and the Tripoli Council for rogue, non-Tripoli based militias to disarm and leave the city. Despite the announcement of the deadline on 6 December, clashes between militias and security forces have continued unabated.

Pending the confirmation of election results by the Supreme Court of the Democratic Republic of Congo on 17 December, President Joseph Kabila is scheduled to be sworn in for a second term in Kinshasa. International observers have raised concerns about the validity of the country’s 28 November election.

The long-awaited verdict in the ‘Government I’ genocide trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda is handed down on Wednesday in Arusha. Former Interior Minister Edouard Karemera and former President of the MRND political party Mathieu Ngirumpatse are accused of recruiting and arming the Interahamwe militia and disseminating Hutu Power propaganda.

The European Central Bank holds the first of two 36-month longer-term refinancing operations announced by ECB President Mario Draghi on 8 December as part of a series of measures to support bank lending and market activities. The LTRO comes on the same day that Italy releases Q3 GDP figures; the preliminary figures had been due in November, but were not released amid political turmoil.

Palestinian leaders meet in Cairo on Thursday, with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas expected to chair the first meeting of what would be a unified Palestinian decision-making body in place until elections are held in May 2012. Members of the Palestinian National Council, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation’s executive boards and the directors-general of various Palestinian factions are scheduled to attend.

Amid weeks of protests against the recent parliamentary elections, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gives his annual state of the nation address in Moscow.

On Friday, the South Korean military is set to turn on the lights on three giant steel Christmas trees placed at points along the country’s border with North Korea. Pyongyang has reportedly called the trees a form of ‘psychological warfare’ and has threatened ‘unexpected consequences’ if the lighting goes ahead.

Activists in Russia have planned another mass protest against the 4 December elections on Saturday, after an estimated 50,000 people turned out for the 10 December demonstration, which was organised on Facebook. The tens of thousands already signed up to attend have clearly not been swayed by President Dmitry Medvedev’s pledge to investigate allegations of electoral fraud.

Sunday is, of course, Christmas Day. While millions worldwide will be focusing on egg nog, Christmas pudding and what Santa’s left under the tree, Pakistani cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan will be addressing a rally in Karachi, where he is said to be launching a ‘revolutionary manifesto’ ahead of elections in 2013.

Sunday also marks the 20th anniversary of the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev, who had been President of the Soviet Union from October 1988. Gorbachev’s resignation came a day before the USSR was formally dissolved on 26 December, 1991.