By Nicole Hunt

The day after the Bahrain Grand Prix, 21 Bahraini activists, including hunger striker Abdulhadi al Khawaja, are due in court in Manama on Monday to hear the outcome of their appeal against life sentences handed down in June 2011 for conspiring to overthrow the government during last year’s protests. The decision to schedule the hearing after the Grand Prix was a controversial one, as al Khawaja’s deteriorating health two months into his hunger strike raised the very real possibility that he could die before the race took place. UK supporters said al Khawaja’s death would be a ‘stain on Bahrain’.

Burmese democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is set to take up her seat in the Pyithu Hluttaw (House of Representatives), following a landslide victory by her National League for Democracy in 1 April by-elections, though there have been suggestions that NLD MPs will boycott the opening over an oath of allegiance that forces them to swear to safeguard the constitution. Suu Kyi’s parliamentary debut comes amid news that she may travel to the UK and Norway in June, where she would be able to see her grandchildren for the first time and finally pick up her Nobel Peace Prize, awarded in 1991.

The late Malawian President Bingu wu Mutharika, who died of a heart attack on 5 April, is laid to rest at his family farm in Thyolo. There is speculation that close ally Robert Mugabe and Sudanese President Omar al Bashir could be among attendees at the state funeral; Malawi came under fire from the International Criminal Court last year when it failed to arrest Bashir during a visit to the country for a regional summit. Bashir is wanted by the court for alleged war crimes in Sudan’s Darfur region.

All eyes stateside on Tuesday as a pre-trial hearing begins at Fort Meade, Maryland, for Private First Class Bradley Manning, who has been charged with a variety of offences, including aiding Al Qaeda, for his alleged role in leaking sensitive military material to WikiLeaks, among which was a video which later became WikiLeaks’ Collateral Murder film.

In New York, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is due to give the keynote speech at the Time 100 Gala Dinner, being held in honour of those named to Time’s 100 Most Influential People list on 18 April. In addition to Clinton and President Barack Obama, this year’s list also included the likes of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and, of course, Kate and Pippa Middleton.

And, just for good measure, Republican primaries also take place in New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Connecticut, though now that everyone is agreed that Mitt Romney will win everything, it’s a less exciting race.

Why will journalists be fighting for a place at the Scottish Parliament’s Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee meeting on Wednesday? Because US property tycoon Donald Trump – who at one point pictured himself being the focus of those Republican primaries – is scheduled to appear to give evidence on government plans to build an offshore windfarm near his £1bn golf resort. In written evidence submitted ahead of his appearance, Trump said the plan would destroy Scotland’s countryside and coastline, and was tantamount to ‘committing financial suicide’ – a jibe that would have stung even more after the controversial Skintland issue of the Economist.

Charles Taylor’s nine-year war crimes case comes to a head on Thursday as the Special Court for Sierra Leone announces its verdict. While media coverage in the summer of 2010 suggested that perhaps Taylor was on trial for giving Naomi Campbell a diamond or two, the former Liberian President has actually been tried for crimes against humanity, violations of Article 3 of the Geneva Convention, and other serious violations of international humanitarian law – including, of course, allegedly giving Sierra Leonean rebels arms in exchange for so-called ‘blood diamonds’.

In a less groundbreaking trial – though one that receives headlines whether models are involved or not (and they frequently seem to be) – former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi returns to court in Milan on Friday to face charges of paying for underage sex. While the trial is now over a year old and coverage has been relegated to the Italian press for some time, recent hearings have reignited international interest as the lurid details of Berlusconi’s ‘bunga bunga’ parties have been disclosed.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton begins a three day trip to Myanmar on Saturday, where she is scheduled to meet with government officials and opposition members (including Aung San Suu Kyi) and is expected to open the EU’s new embassy in Yangon. Her visit follows a meeting on Monday of EU foreign ministers, during which they are expected to relax sanctions on Myanmar in the wake of recent political improvements.

Guinea-Bissau had been scheduled to hold its presidential run-off vote on Sunday, following first round polls on 18 March, but as front-runner Carlos Gomes Junior was arrested as part of a military coup d’état on 12-13 April, the election will not be going ahead. The military junta has announced a two-year timeframe for new elections, which has been agreed by opposition parties but not Gomes’ ruling party.

Sunday also marks the 20th anniversary of the beginning of the Los Angeles riots, which left 53 people dead and over 2,000 in three days of violence following the acquittal, by an all-white jury, of four police officers who were videotaped beating black motorist Rodney King. The anniversary comes amid heightened racial tensions in the US following the delayed arrest of George Zimmerman for the murder of Trayvon Martin.

https://soundcloud.com/frontlineclub/focus-on-sudan-what-does/s-w2jPO

Salva Kir is to lead South Sudan into independence on the 9 July after a landslide referendum earlier this year where 99% of the South voted to secede from the North. But with relations still tense over disputed border regions of Abyei and the surrounding area, what does the future hold for North and South alike?

With Northern Sudan’s President Omar al Bashir wanted by the ICC for war crimes and the vast majorities of NGO’s being based in the south, will the North even recognize its legitimacy? Will this be the real start of peace, or will it merely be the start of another land grab explosion by the North?

Analysts fear that the South will become a failed state before it has even had a chance at success. With little to no public services and foreign aid being the main source of food, the South stands in a precarious position and faces an up hill struggle.

Join us at the Frontline club with a panel of experts to discuss what the future holds for North and South Sudan – will this be the start of peaceful beginnings and economic prosperity for both? Or will fraught relations win out again?

Chaired by Richard Dowden, director of the Royal African Society. He was Africa editor of The Independent from 1986 to 1994 before being appointed Diplomatic Editor, and then joining The Economist as their Africa Editor. Author of Africa: Altered States, Ordinary Miracles.

With:

Lindsey Hilsum, Channel 4 News’ International Editor.

Dr Ahmed Al-Shahi, Research Fellow and Co-founder of the Sudan Programme at St Antony’s College, Oxford University.

Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Ltd. Prior to joining Exclusive Analysis she worked in the field of urban development, consulting for municipal governments in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. 

Mohamed Abdalla Ali Eltom, Deputy Head of Mission at the Embassy of the Republic of Sudan in London.

Picture credit: fieldreports

The Republic of South Sudan was awash with celebrations this weekend as it became officially independent from the North following a landslide referendum in February this year, when 99 per cent of South Sudanese voted for independence.

Juba, the new capital, was packed with dignitaries and officials to mark the new county’s creation. Among them was the new President of Sudan, Salva Kiir Mayardit, the UK ambassador for the Republic, Alistair McPhaill OBE and UN General Secretary, Ban Ki Moon.

Sudan’s president Omar al Bashir was the first to officially recognise the new country and bless his "brothers in the south". But, he warned, "brotherly relations depended on secure borders and non-interference in each others’ affairs".

Only hours after secession, Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party deployed troops to the ‘flashpoint states’ in the areas surrounding South Kordofan and Blue Nile that have been at the centre of fierce fighting and conflict. Despite the governmen’s insistence that such an exercise is ‘routine’, the timing appears to be a show of force over the new South.

Salva Kiir’s speech at the celebrations balanced the need to maintain relations with Bashir whilst asserting the country’s newly-found independence: "Abyei, Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan we have not forgotten you. When you cry, we cry,” he said.

The new president also granted amnesty to those who fought against him. At the same time, Bashir has revoked the citizenship of all South Sudanese who live in the north.

Despite agreement over independence, there are still logistical considerations that need to be addressed between the two countries. With disputes over oil, national borders and citizenship, the 193rd country of the world has a lot of problems to resolve if it wants to shake off the ‘pre-failed state label.’ With analysts less than optimistic about the country’s prospects of doing so, the reality of independence is becoming increasingly clear.

Tomorrow night will be discussing what the future holds for North and South Sudan with an expert panel that includes: Lindsey Hilsum who has just returned from South Sudan; Lord Teverson, chair of the House of Lords EU Foreign Affairs Sub-Committee which as just published ‘The EU and Sudan: On the Brink of Change; Dr Ahmed al-Shahi co-founder of the Sudan Programme at Oxford University and Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Ltd.

The event will be chaired by Richard Dowden, Director of the Royal African Society.

Juba, the capital of the semi-autonomous region of South Sudan, is currently extremely tense, awaiting the reaction of national president Omar al-Bashir to tomorrow’s International Criminal Court decision on whether to issue an arrest warrant against him. Should the ICC go ahead with the indictment – for ten counts of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide allegedly committed in Darfur – not only will it be the first such indictment against a sitting head of state but could also imperil the faltering north south peace deal, the so-called Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

The CPA supposedly ended decades of civil war with a negotiated power sharing agreement that calls for democratic elections before July and allows the South a vote for independence in 2011.  Thus a potential ICC arrest warrant against al Bashir poses a serious dilemma for the government of the nascent state: it could entirely unravel the CPA and thus undermine the agreement for a vote on self-determination but it could also lead to a pre-emptive unilateral declaration of independence should the beleaguered national president opt to declare a state of emergency.

In the meantime everyone is waiting to see what happens next: not really a novel experience here in a region where everyone is waiting for the opportunity to become the world’s newest independent nation state. Most people seem to regard a yes vote on independence as a foregone conclusion and there is a growing feeling that there is no need to wait another two years. The CPA stipulated that there should be a six year “interim period” during which time both sides should work to make unity attractive but in reality there is currently no sign of any benefits to unity and both northern and southern armies appear to be squaring up for another fight and digging in along the disputed north-south border.

In Juba and other large southern towns the Government of Southern Sudan’s military and security forces are on full alert, although, somewhat paradoxically their main potential targets are members of the north’s military and security the components of the (supposedly) Joint Integrated Units that remain entirely loyal to the Government of National Unity in Khartoum.

Thus the next few days could well be the turning point in the history of a nation that has remained at war with itself for over four decades. We are just going to have to wait and see what happens next.

Photo juba (4), originally uploaded by aheavens.

Sudan is gearing up for judges at the International Criminal Court to decide whether to indict President Omar al Bashir on the three charges being pursued by Luis Moreno-Ocampo. Speculation is rife that a decision will come in February, although no-one knows for sure. Journalist and aid worker friends are already getting out – or at least readying evacuation plans – amid fears that things will turn nasty. Alex de Waal, on the Making Sense of Darfur blog, says a dangerous month looms…

The Sudan Government sees the ICC as the gravest threat to its survival it has ever faced and a matter of life and death. It is a national issue, not one confined to Darfur. Up to now, the Sudan Government has responded coolly to the threat, but it is clear that no option is off the table should an arrest warrant be issued.

Irin reports that foreigners are preparing for the worst…

Embassies, NGOs and UN staff have beefed up security and developed contingency plans, trying to ensure their programmes can continue if they are forced to leave the country. Evacuation plans are also in place.

Last time around, when Ocampo revealed he was seeking an arrest warrant, the reaction from Khartoum was muted. Bashir went on a peace tour of Darfur, and his officials managed to restrain themselves to comments along the lines of "If you undermine our authority then we will be less able to protect foreigners." There was also, of course, an increase in the steady harassment of NGOs. Jennie Matthew, who has just left Khartoum after a stint as AFP bureau chief, is characteristically underwhelmed by the panic…

I’m leaving Sudan on the cusp of an uncertain future, with all eyes trained on the aftermath of the expected arrest warrant for the president. Although cautious about the apocalyptic scenarios bandied about by others (Will Sudan expel Westerners, UN peacekeepers, aid workers? Will mobs trash the British, French and US embassies?) Western families are stockpiling food.

And Alex de Waal ends up concluding…

Key to how the Khartoum leadership responds will be the reactions of others, international and domestic. If the reaction all round were to be that the arrest warrant changes nothing and business as usual should continue, then the NCP and security leadership is likely to remain cool. But if the reactions are otherwise, then the response could be very adverse.

So there you have it. The chap who knows more than most about Sudan reckons it could go either way. Sudan does at least obey the rules of the known universe (unlike Somalia) but it’s a foolish pundit who makes any predictions.

Photo: Omar al-Bashir arrives in El Geneina, West Darfur