As early as Trump’s foreign policy overtures in 2017, then National Security Adviser Michael Flynn led a faction in support of listing the Brotherhood as foreign terrorist organisation by the State Department and the U.S. Treasury. Following his sacking and other legal setbacks, the initial proposal fell by the wayside, as more pragmatic voices prevailed in the executive branch.
When an emboldened General Abdel-fattah Sisi visited the White House in April, he found more sympathetic ears to bend. Cue John Bolton, Trump’s fourth adviser on National Security – and a President plea bargaining for Egyptian support in his plans for peace between Israel and Palestine. For Sisi, the designation would represent another nail in the coffin of his political opponents, Egypt’s Brotherhood Islamists.
If the U.S. goes ahead, the impact could be huge. Economic and travel sanctions would follow for entities and individuals even loosely based with the multi-faceted organisation. Strategic allies in the region that share legislative and ideological ties with the Muslim Brotherhood – such as Tunisia and Turkey – would be affected and angered by the move. What would be the impact on now dormant Brotherhood members in Egypt? Would a failed designation embolden or revitalise Brotherhood-affiliated political forces throughout the Middle East and North Africa?
Azadeh Moaveni is a former Middle East correspondent for Time Magazine, based in Cairo and Tehran, and has written three books on Iran. She is the author of the forthcoming Guest House for Young Widows, about the women of ISIS, and now does gender and conflict analysis for the International Crisis Group.
David D. Kirkpatrick is an international correspondent based in the London bureau of the New York Times. From the beginning of 2011 through the end of 2015 he was the Cairo bureau chief. In 2018, David’s book Into the Hands of the Soldiers: Freedom and Chaos in Egypt and the Middle East was received to international acclaim.
Madawi Al-Rasheed is Visiting Professor at the Middle East Centre, London School of Economics. Previously she was Professor of Social Anthropology at King’s College, London and Visiting Research Professor at the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore. Her research focuses on history, society, religion and politics in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, Middle Eastern Christian minorities in Britain, Arab migration, Islamist movements, state and gender relations, and Islamic modernism. You can read about her publications here.
Mina Thabet is an Egyptian researcher, activist and a human rights defender who is based in London since 2017. Currently, he works as the head of Policy Unite at the Egyptian Commission for Rights and Freedoms (ECRF), an Egyptian award-winning mainstream human rights NGO. His work focuses on freedom of religion and belief, discrimination and sectarian violence against minorities in Egypt. Also, he co-founded two of Egypt’s most prominent youth movements that promoted the rights of religious and ethnic minorities in post-Mubarak era, Maspero Youth Union (MYU) and the Egyptian Coalition for Minorities (ECM).
Photograph courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
]]>As political instability continues in Egypt, renowned Arab journalist Yosri Fouda will be joining the BBC’s Middle East Editor, Jeremy Bowen in conversation, to give some insight into how this situation will develop.
They will be looking at the role played by the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups, how deep the divisions are in Egypt and what will shape the country’s political future.
Image credit: George Nazmi Bebawi / Shutterstock.com
]]>In the early hours of 8 July 51 Muslim Brotherhood supporters were killed outside a Cairo barracks, where they believe Mohamed Morsi is being held. The Muslim Brotherhood claim its members were fired on as they staged a sit-in, while the army said it had responded to an armed provocation.
Egypt’s military have moved quickly installing a new interim president, Adly Mansour, the chief justice of Egypt’s constitutional court. Adly Mansour has subsequently set out a timetable for amending the constitution, and for parliamentary and presidential elections for early 2014
With events developing at great speed we will be taking stock of what has happened and asking what this means for Egypt’s future.
Chaired by Jonathan Rugman, foreign affairs correspondent at Channel 4 News.
The panel:
Dina Wahba is an independent activist.
Mohamed Yehia is the multi-media editor at BBC Arabic.
Mona Al-Qazzaz is six months away from obtaining her PhD degree at Cambridge University. She participated in the revolution in January 2011 and she is currently the spokesperson of the Muslim Brotherhood in the UK. Her brother is one of the senior assistants of Mohamed Morsi who has been facing incommunicado detention.
Dr Maha Azzam is an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House.
Dr Omar Ashour is a senior lecturer at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Doha Center. He is the author of The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements.
]]>“These are tear gas canisters made in the USA and this in my opinion epitomises the whole story in the Middle East in the last few decades.”
Renowned broadcaster Yosri Fouda began the evening recounting a pivotal moment in the Egyptian revolution. On the 1st of the 18 days of protests that engulfed Cairo, when he stood with this evening’s host Lyse Doucet and watched protestors re-launching tear gas at the Egyptian police.
“That was the most important day in the Egyptian revolution. The so-called Friday of wrath, the day when Mubarak’s forces were defeated by the people… the real story began from that day on.”
Moving beyond the giddy euphoria of Mubarak’s deposition, Fouda acknowledged concerns over the recent election of an Islamist President, but stressed that the revolution continues.
“We still have a revolution. I understand the frustrations of many people both inside and outside Egypt. But this is a revolution. Revolutions take years and years.”
Referring to the split between the revolutionary forces in Egypt, Fouda described a diverse set of aims.
“The trouble is that we have three main parties in Egypt and each main party has their own concept of what Egypt’s revolution is all about, or must be about. We have the army, the Islamists and the hard core of Tahrir Square. For the army it was about getting rid of the cronies. For the Islamists it was about reaching the Assembly and that’s it. But for the hard core, they have their own idea of where the revolution should end.”
Whilst some members of the passionate Frontline Club audience expressed their fears and mistrust of these forces, Fouda sought to allay concerns and stated that diversity of opinion was critical for Egypt’s future.
“Egypt will never lend itself to only one force. We’ve been learning this and I think this learning process will remain for a long time to come. Egypt, before the revolution, was like a house consisting of five or six rooms. Everyone was living in their own room locked up and they didn’t know who lived in the next room. Suddenly, something big happened that forced everybody out in to the living room. And everyone’s saying “Who are you?”…Until today each force flirts with the idea that they can have all of Egypt and it’s going to take some time before we realise that Egypt is big enough for everyone.”
In an animated Q&A session, Fouda responded to worries over religious freedoms for minority groups and fragmentation within the country with a message of hope.
“We don’t want a President to teach religion. If I vote it’s because I want a President to serve me, not teach me about religion… I’m interested in simple concepts. Justice. The rule of law…To change a culture and mentality will take time. A third of Egyptian’s can’t read or write. What’s most important is working on the ground, opening doors.”
Watch the full event here:
Mohammed Mursi has become Egypt’s first democratically elected president – but while he may have been chosen as the people’s representative, the country still has to contend with the powerful Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), who may thwart any attempt at change. The panel was divided over Mursi’s ability to bring the country together and to pursue the desperately needed reforms to security, the economy and the political landscape.
Dr Maha Azzam from Chatham House and Dr Omar Ashour from Exeter University were both concerned by the enormity of the task faced by Mursi. But they remained hopeful that he would succeed in moving away from a military dictatorship so long as he could mobilise popular support. They both argued that his democratic mandate was already a major political and institutional step in the right direction, however he faced challenges in steering the institutions of state away from the shadows of Mubarak’s regime.
Tariq Ramadan from Oxford University struck a more pessimistic note, arguing that Mursi’s election was nothing more than a symbol behind which the military continued to govern. The panel seemed to agree with his claim that the military had their finger on the ‘reset button’, and could reverse democratic reform at any moment.
Khalid Abdalla, a British-Egyptian actor, producer and activist also suggested that the political transition was more symbolic than real, and that military were still ‘writing the rules of the game’. However he passionately argued that the greatest change occurred in the hearts and minds of the people: they were no longer afraid, and would continue to challenge the military – a point upon which all the panel agreed.
Carina Kamel, a senior correspondent for Al Arabiya drew attention to the loss of trust suffered by the Muslim Brotherhood, and argued that it was a divisive force in Egypt – making it even harder for Mursi to govern. Her claims split the panel, underlining the uncertainty surrounding the Brotherhood’s ability to govern and stand up to the military. She then rounded on Egypt’s economy, its dire state and the extent to which it was controlled by the Generals – further undermining Muri’s mandate.
The panel were united in their analysis of external influences on Egypt. They agreed that in the past the US was never far behind Egypt’s military, but warned that their influence could decline as Egypt sought to forge new links with emerging powers.
The audience made incisive interventions, drawing attention to the struggle of women under an Islamist government, the tendency for military regimes to endure, while pushing the panel to talk more about Egypt’s economy and its relations with the military.
Watch the full event here:
By Nicole Hunt
New week, New Year – the Chinese Year of the Dragon, that is.
But while weeks of celebrations are kicking off in China, the mood will be considerably less celebratory in Brussels, where the EU foreign ministers and euro area finance ministers are holding monthly meetings. The Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to discuss new sanctions against Iran, including the possibility of imposing sanctions on Iranian oil, while finance ministers will hear from Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti on his government’s plans for economic and labour reforms.
In Cairo, the Egyptian parliament holds its first sitting following marathon elections between November and January. The need for re-votes and subsequent delays in results reporting means the full make-up of the National Assembly is still unknown, though it’s likely to be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Libyan authorities have until Monday to submit information to the International Criminal Court in The Hague on the conditions of Saif al Islam Gaddafi’s arrest and detention, and to notify the court whether they intend to hand him over for trial. Gaddafi has been indicted by the ICC on charges of crimes against humanity.
Spanish Magistrate Baltasar Garzon, who went on trial last week on charges of illegal phone tapping, is back before the court on Tuesday to face the allegations that originally saw him suspended last spring. Right-wing lobby groups have accused Garzon of overstepping his judicial authority by investigating disappearances under Franco’s regime despite a 1977 amnesty.
US President Barack Obama delivers the final State of the Union address of his first term in Washington. While no details of the speech have been released (other than that Obama will follow it up with a five-city tour through the battleground states of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Michigan), the focus is likely to be on the economy and employment.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel opens the World Economic Forum Meeting, better known as Davos, on Wednesday. The annual gathering attracts heads of state and government from across the world, with nearly 40 leaders expected to attend this year alongside IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, Arab League Secretary General Nabil El Araby and Archbishop Desmond Tutu.
Despite the star-studded Davos meeting, all eyes will be on Cairo as the Egyptian revolution marks its first anniversary. However, the mood is likely to be less celebratory than would be expected, as protesters have grown impatient with the rate at which power is being transferred from the military to civilians, as well as the ongoing trial of former President Hosni Mubarak, and activists have continued to clash with police in recent months.
Thursday is a much quieter anniversary, marking one year since the first, tentative protests in Syria, where the death toll has now reached somewhere between 5,000 and 6,500. Widespread demonstrations did not take place in Damascus until 15 March, which is considered the beginning ofthe Syrian uprising, but smaller gatherings were held on 26 January, inspired by Tunisia and Egypt.
Thursday is also seen as a key deadline in the Middle East Quartet’s plan for the progress of peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian officials. The parties are supposed to have put forward ‘comprehensive proposals’ on border and security improvements by now, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has demanded that a settlement freeze be put in place.
Senegal’s Constitutional Court is scheduled to make a decision on Friday as to the eligibility of candidates for the country’s 26 February presidential election. Incumbent President Abdoulauye Wade maintains that since he was first elected in 2000, three years before the introduction of a two-term limit, he is still eligible to run for another term (despite re-election in 2007). Singer Youssou N’dour is also among candidates.
After a delay of over a month, Silvio Berlusconi’s trial for paying for underage sex resumes in Milan. Both sides will be looking ahead to a 7 February hearing, during which the Constitutional Court is due to hear a motion brought by the Senate requesting that the case be moved to a special minister’s court.
The Cuban Communist Party holds its national convention on Saturday, the first since Raul Castro succeeded his brother Fidel as the Party’s Secretary General last year.
Saturday also marks 100 days since the death of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
With the lower house elections over and Parliament in place, Egypt begins the first round of voting for the upper house or Shura Council on Sunday. A second stage of elections will be held 14-15 February, with runoffs scheduled for both stages, if necessary. Plans for a three-stage vote, in line with the lower house elections, were abandoned in favour of a shorter timeline that will see the Shura Council sitting by 28 February.
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