After a tense five year coalition between Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF and Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Zimbabwe is back at the ballot box. On the eve of the polls closing on 31 July, the Frontline Club hosted a debate with four experts to discuss what this election will mean for the future of Zimbabwe.

Simukai Tinhu (left), Dr Sue Onslow (centre), Wilf Mbanga (right). Photo: Dan Tookey

Dr Sue Onslow, currently a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, began by asking whether the panel believed there to be any ‘vital conditioning before the start of today?’ and commenting:

‘It’s often said that elections are stolen well before anyone actually puts a cross on a piece of paper’

Wilf Mbanga, the founder, publisher and editor of The Zimbabwean newspaper, said:

‘At the last election the African Union condemned him [Mugabe] for the 400 people who were killed. . . . There were people with broken bones, people in hospitals and there was evidence of violence which you couldn’t deny. This time around he has decided he’s not going to do that. People will vote peacefully, there are no dead bodies, no broken bones, but they’re manipulating the figures.’

Mbanga continued by explaining in detail how the electoral role has been doctored. ‘They will do it  and win the election with the figures, not beating up people’’.

Chofamba Innocent Sithole, a Zimbabwean journalist and current assistant editor of NewsAfrica magazine, argued that there was a positive element to the current election in that the violent wings of all the parties have been demobilised:

‘It is true that all the parties engage in violence; Zanu-PF perhaps just has a bigger capacity for violence.’

He continued that although Zanu-PF seem to have retreated from violence, they still have other things in their arsenal:

‘They control the institutions that register voters, that delineate constituencies and that has pretty much been in evidence at this election.’

Simukai Tinhu, an African Affairs Analyst based in London, pointed out that in the first round of the 2008 elections there was very limited violence:

‘It was only in the second round when Mugabe had realised that there was a potential that he might actually lose the presidency. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is surge in violence if there is to be a run-off.’

According to Dr Onslow the electoral rules for the election are baffling, making her ‘quite cross-eyed trying to work out what was going on.’

Mbanga agreed but argued that this confusion had been quite deliberate:

‘They’ve actually criminalised voter education. A number of people have been arrested who were found educating people how to vote; where to put their x. They will be going to court after the elections. People have gone in to this election ignorant of whether their names are even on the electoral rolls.’

Sithole argued that the ‘Mugabe factor’ is not going to have as much sway in this election as it has in previous ones:

‘It is ludicrous for young Zimbabweans looking to the future to be seized with this zeal to go and thrust this old man back in to power. Because of this I think Tsvangirai is going to swing it.’

However, Tinhu disagreed with this analysis arguing that to the contrary Mugabe does appeal to the youth though it not seen to be ‘trendy.’

Mbanga argued that Mugabe has great appeal for those who remember Zimbabwe pre 1980 – and Mugabe is still acting like he is fighting that war.

Sithole made it clear that he thought that Mugabe as an individual was not prepossessing to the Zimbabwean people – but that his ideas still resonated with a lot of people:

 ‘Even among young people there is an admiration for a leader who is seen to be strong. Someone who can stand up to powerful countries, and powerful interests. This is something that not only resonates in Zimbabwe but also across Africa.’

https://soundcloud.com/frontlineclub/will-2013-see-the-end-of

Zimbabwe’s leaders have been locked in a shaky power sharing coalition since opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was sworn in as Prime Minister in January 2009. This agreement followed a period of violence and turmoil after the 2008 elections, which Robert Mugabe is widely believed to have stolen.

President Mugabe is now pressing for fresh elections in 2011, despite MDC leader Tsvangirai saying that they could not take place without reforms and constitutional review.

Analysts fear that Zimbabwe could be marred by violence in a repeat of 2008, when Mugabe lost the popular vote, but forced a win in a runoff election. With the military, police and state apparatus on his side there is little chance that Mugabe would allow a remotely free or fair election would likely ensure his removal from power.

Join us at the Frontline Club with a panel of experts to discuss what the coming year holds for Zimbabwe – could there be a fair election, or will violence and intimidation again escalate?

Chaired by Gerry Jackson, founder of SW Radio Africa – the independent Zimbabwean radio station that broadcasts to Zimbabwe on shortwave and worldwide via the internet. She has been reporting on Zimbabwe for over 25 years.

With:

Geoff Hill, bureau chief in Johannesburg for The Washington Times and author of The Battle for Zimbabwe and What Happens After Mugabe?;

Chofamba Innocent Sithole, Zimbabwean journalist and community organiser;

Blessing-Miles Tendi, author of Making History in Mugabe’s Zimbabwe: Politics, Intellectuals and the Media;

George Shire, cultural theorist, political analyst and reviews editor for “Soundings”, a journal of politics and culture.

It is very frustrating to know that the count was finished on Sunday, all the tallies reported to the various command centres and from them to the national command centre, but that process of “verification” at the NCC is taking forever.

Of course many Zimbabweans think there is a sinister reason for this: “You know they’re delaying revealing the results so they can fix them, don’t you?” asks Jules rhetorically.

The absence of concrete facts, ensures that rumours fly from lip to lip. “The army chief of staff has given orders to the ZEC to hold the results for 24 hours to allow him to deploy his men – why would they do that?” The assumption is that the army will either crack down on any protests over the obvious rigging of the presidential election result, or they will stage a coup if the real result, a Tsvangirai win, is announced.

“Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa has lost his seat.” “Elliot Manyika, the MP for Bindura has lost his seat and shot his driver dead because his driver showed he was happy that the MDC-T candidate had won.” True or not, these snippets are passed from person to person, fuelling the feeling of nervousness.

“You forget we have been down this road before. Three elections – 2000, 2002 and 2005 where it was clear that the MDC had won, but Zanu-PF somehow was announced the victor.”

“Our only hope this time is that, in spite of the gerrymandering, the postal vote, the problems with the electoral roll and so on… that the transparency of the vote and count in each ward, the public posting of the results for all to see and verify in person, will make it impossible for them to steal the election again.”

I have decided to move on from Harare into Matabeleland. I want to see how things are in Bulawayo, Hwange and Victoria Falls. All day yesterday I received text messages from friends in those areas gleefully recounting the results. It seems that Morgan Tsvangirai has swept the board, to the shock and dismay of the Arthur Mutambara faction of the MDC.

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me here is how efficient and well-organised Zimbabwe can be, compared to so many of its neighbours. I call the local reservation number for Air Zimbabwe 575111, choose option 7 for reservations, and speak to a charming and friendly-sounding lady who happily makes a booking for me and gives me my reference.

One day later, I turn up at the international side of Harare airport to the Air Zimbabwe ticket office, state the reference, am told my seat is indeed confirmed, pay up and within minutes am issued a ticket which I then take the 50 metres or so to the domestic terminal where I check in within seconds. It takes a few more seconds to put my bags through the scanner and walk through security into a pleasant and spotlessly clean departure lounge.

Interestingly, there is a group of four or five café-style tables with chairs in an area adjacent to a café-bar, currently closed, all taken by white people. The remaining passengers, white, brown or black slump in the usual plastic bucket-seat rows of a departure lounge.

Boarding is quick and efficient, the staff aboard the aircraft courteous and friendly. We are even given a snack and hot drink on the flight, which barely lasts an hour. Once on the ground, a quick walk across the apron and straight through the domestic arrivals gate and I am outside. I mentally compare and contrast to the nightmare of transiting London Heathrow and chalk up a few more brownie points for Zimbabwe.

My taxi ride from the airport meets with a police checkpoint – the first I have seen in several days. The policeman and my driver exchange a few words, two 10million Zim dollar notes are surreptitiously passed from my driver’s hand into the policeman’s hand under the pretext of an African reverse handshake “so he can have a drink” and then we are allowed on.

“Usually they stop us to check if we have currency we shouldn’t have, or goods we shouldn’t have, then they would confiscate them”, the driver says.
Then he shakes his head sideways and smiles: “but they are paid peanuts and I’m sure they too are hoping for good news today.”

He means the announcement of the election result, which pretty much all of Zimbabwe is hoping will mean a regime change and the start of a new phase of development that will restore harmony and prosperity to this beautiful country.

Time to go out on the roads and see what is happening here in Matabeleland.

It’s becoming clear that the MDC has won a landslide victory in Harare and indeed in many of the provinces.

It is rumoured that Robert Mugabe and his family have left the country for Malaysia.

At Belvedere School which had two polling stations, A and B, we spoke to a man who had just come from church. He said Moab’s cousin attends his church and confirmed the rumour to him. Hard to tell if this is true, but he was middle-class, well-educated, well-dressed and seemed plausible enough.

At Belvedere A Tsvangirai won 222 votes to Mugabe’s 45 and Makoni’s 51. At Belvedere B Tsvangirai won 215 to Mugabe’s 35 and Makoni’s 51.
We drove to nearby Strathhaven – there Tsvangirai had 342 to Mugabe’s 63 and Makoni’s 79.

As we talked to the police guarding the polling tent, who were all affable but hungry (so my companion bought them some bread rolls) a truckload of young men went by, singing away… as they passed they put up their hands in the MDC open-palmed gesture, then putting thumbs up. The policemen smiled but didn’t respond.

We asked what they were hearing… is the city calm all over, how safe are we (as white women)? They smiled and reassured: “No my sister it is all calm, all peaceful, we are all Zimbabweans together, never fear.”

At the Marimba shopping centre it was a similar scene: people flocking up in ones, twos and groups to see for themselves the result of yesterday’s vote. All over the country people are doing the same thing and then passing on the news to their friends and family. Like the breeze stirring the long grass, the news is slowly passing from one area to another. Broad smiles, thumbs up, the open-palmed wave are everywhere.

“Oh madam, chinja at last”, says the driver in the car that pulls up next to us at the traffic lights. “What are you hearing?” everyone asks. We swap information: a text from an MDC worker in Bulawayo says there are reports of mayhem at the Zimbabwe election commission after clean sweep for the MDC-Tsvangirai faction in 5 or more districts.

Will has been up all night, collating incoming reports as MDC observers report back on the count results at each ward polling station. He texts: “Former Zanu strongholds like Bindura, Mutoko, UMP, Chivu, Goromonzi, Whedza, Rusape and Masvingo have changed hands.”

More rumours: the Zanu-PF MP of Bindura, Elliot Manyika, has lost his seat and shot someone. An MDC member named Sikhala has stabbed someone in Chitungwiza.

Victoria Falls town as a whole has voted MDC-Tsvangira: “Pasi nawagushunge! Pamberi nema bhunu!” comes a text message.

We meet Simbarache and Prince coming from church – they say Mugabe’s home district of Zvimba has turned against him. “The Lord has blessed us, the Lord has blessed us,” says Simbarache.

“It has never been like this in other elections I have known since 2000,” says Nik. It is so cool people acting like this, going out to check the results for themselves, completely without fear. It’s amazing.”

Along the road leading back towards the city centre all the Zanu-PF election posters pasted to the lampposts in the central reservation have been blotted out with yellow paint – the work of Simba Makoni supporters perhaps? His campaign colour was yellow, red for the MDC-Tsvangirai, green for Zanu-PF.

Makoni has been coming third everywhere we have seen, and everywhere we have heard of. But he has been taking votes from Mugabe and Zanu, that much is clear. Everywhere I go, on foot and by car, people are smiling, starting to dare to believe that maybe this time it really is going to work.

“Can we start to celebrate?” someone asks. “No, not yet, don’t provoke anything,” answers another. It appears the electoral commission warned against premature celebrations. There is quite incredible self-discipline. No triumphalism is betrayed, just nervous satisfaction.. nervous because they still have to wait for the ZEC official result announcement. Until then, nothing can be taken for granted.

Back in Chisipite, I encounter a self-professed Zanu-PF supporter reading the blue result announcements in disbelief. Tendai says he cannot believe that Mugabe has lost Zvimba: “it must surely be propaganda” he says. But what about here, does he believe this result is propaganda?

He speaks in rapid Shona to the police guarding the voting tent, on which the four blue sheets of paper tallying the count are attached.

“No, it is right. Here these were the votes, this is what was counted here, the police confirm it and to be honest I expected this area to be pro-MDC-Tsvangirai faction.”

Among the surprises so far, it appears independent MP Margaret Dongo has lost her Senate seat. A huge surprise is that Matabeleland, which was thought to be the heartland of MDC-Mutambara faction, has voted massively for Tsvangirai. The Mutambara faction is said to be in shock as some of their leading members have lost their seats. Only David Coltart, a white Senator, is said to have been re-elected safely.

It was the same margin of victory in the Senate, parliamentary and council elections, the Tsvangirai faction of the MDC romping home by a mile. People drifted up to check for themselves, singly and in groups, with broad smiles breaking out, thumbs up signs and the open hand wave that is a symbol of support for the MDC.

“This time we got him good,” said Andy. “I phoned relatives in Gweru and Kwekwe this morning and the MDC is still leading in both and I am thinking that we really got him this time.”

We drove around the almost rural back roads of this north-eastern suburb of Harare finding everywhere an atmosphere of hopeful anticipation. And at every stop we found yet another person who tried to go and vote on Saturday but was denied because their names had disappeared from the electoral roll.

Micky was one of them. “I went first to Newmarch Farm to vote but they couldn’t find my name, so I tried the other polling stations in my ward, but they didn’t have me listed either.”

Yet the African Union observer mission accredited to the ‘2008 Harmonised Election’ has discovered widespread evidence of ‘ghost voters’, including 8,450 voters registered to an empty field in north Harare.

Everyone I talk to comments on how there have been no police road blocks on any of the roads all weekend. Usually a drive from the suburbs downtown is interrupted several times as police check for contraband or cash.

“When Operation Sunrise was announced – that’s when they knocked three zeroes off the bank notes and we all had to surrender the old money – we were stopped regularly by police hoping to confiscate cash”, Julie told me. “It’s the same story with people coming in from the countryside with a sack of mealie they’ve grown that they’re hoping to sell in the city. The police would stop them and seize their stuff on a pretext. We started to believe that this was sanctioned from the top as a way of keeping lower-ranking police paid and fed.”

I had heard similar stories all through Matabeleland. Ross told me that in the markets it was the police chiefs who were selling grain and sugar.

“If someone else comes to sell their stuff, they take it from them, because only they can sell.”

I have also heard plenty of cautionary tales about police brutality, especially at the feared Harare Central station. Yet late on Saturday night, at the close of the polls when I went to see how things were at one of the northern polling stations, the policeman from Harare Central posted outside the tent was warm and friendly.
After the usual African reverse handshake, he talked about how orderly things had been throughout the day, that almost everyone had voted by mid-afternoon. At 7pm the chief polling officer gave a little speech to the assembled election officials, party observers, independent observers and a small group of South African journalists, to explain how things would proceed and with that the count began and we left them to it.
The MDC was already predicting it would win by a landslide nationwide. In an attempt to pre-empt fraud the MDC said it would collate results from each of the 9,400 polling stations and announce them itself.
President Mugabe, however said he would definitely win a sixth term and rejected the rigging claims, saying preposterously:

“We are not in the habit of rigging… We don’t rig elections. I cannot sleep with my conscience if I have rigged,” he said.

But with the latest figures showing inflation is running at 165,000% even in his own rural heartland, people are waking up to the reality of economic disaster and growing hardship and hunger.
This morning I went out to the local farms that have not been seized by ‘warvits’ (the so-called war veterans who were Zanu-PF’s shock troops in the land grab from 2000 on) to find that a single egg bought at cost price on the farm is 5 million Zimbabwe dollars (ZD).
Time now to go eat that egg before we set out to find out what we can about the results from elsewhere and gauge the mood on the streets.

“Who do you think will make the better president,” he asks, “Simba Makoni or Morgan Tsvangirai?”

(He ruled out a vote for Mugabe with an emphatic sideways shake of his head and a guttural click of the tongue.) He outlined the pros and cons:

Tsvangirai, the former trade union leader turned opposition party leader, is seen as an honest man, on the side of the people and above all, Mugabe’s arch-rival.
He has been battling for 8 years at the head of the Movement for Democratic Change, winning votes but losing successive elections until in-fighting split his party into two factions.

The MDC says the results were rigged in 2000, 2002 and again in 2005 and that seems to be what most Zimbabweans believe.

“Maybe President Robert Mugabe is just too wily for him; he will never let him win, just as he has been saying again and again in his speeches: ‘Akosoze’ – never, ever”.

Former SADC Secretary-General and ex-Finance Minister Simba Makoni on the other hand was an insider in the Zanu-PF establishment until he broke ranks this year to stand as an independent.

“I am not convinced Makoni is not still one of them,” says Santos’s friend Tedi.
The two men confer. “He didn’t speak out against what Zanu-PF was doing all those years, until now. But he is an educated man, a clever man and maybe he has the secret support of powerful men inside the party.”

Santos was talking to me just hours after Simba Makoni’s campaign wagon had rolled out of town.
The candidate didn’t turn up in person – he sent a local hero Dumiso Dabengwe in his stead to address rallies in Hwange and Victoria Falls in western Matabeleland.
Several thousand people had turned up, among them the grizzled heads of former Zipra liberation fighters, almost mobbing the Makoni team in their keenness to get hold of a campaign t-shirt.
But in a town where few people can afford to buy clothes, was this a sign of allegiance to the upstart, or just a pragmatic grab of free shirts on offer?

Mrs Moyo was there handing out the shirts. She and her husband are supporters of Arthur Mutambara, the leader of the other faction of the MDC, which has swung behind the Makoni campaign.
With a broad grin she told me “support is building day by day”.
One poll (by the Mass Public Opinion Institute in Harare) suggests Tsvangirai has 28% of popular support against 20% for Mugabe and a mere 9% for Makoni.

On the ground it is difficult to gauge.
Anecdotal evidence suggests more people turn out voluntarily for the MDC leader than for the President, provided the opposition political rallies go ahead as planned.
Zanu-PF tactics are said to include block-booking of the stadiums, unexpected power cuts midway through opposition rally speeches and the impounding of a helicopter that was meant to fly MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai to campaign events.

Rumours are everywhere: that by presidential order the printers producing the ballots for Saturday’s four polls, printed three million duplicate forms; that the voters’ roll is filled with the names of the dead or impossibly elderly (the ‘ghost’ voters), while some of those entitled to vote find their names are mysteriously not on the register; that the international observers who were allowed in by ‘Comrade Bob’ are only accredited until Saturday, so will not be at the sinister National Command Centre which will count the ballots in the presidential race.

Four million Zimbabweans living abroad in the diaspora have been disenfranchised, but a postal vote was compulsory for an estimated 400,000 police and army who will be on duty on polling day, and who allegedly were ordered to vote Zanu-PF under the supervision of senior officers.
Zanu-PF has blatantly handed out food, seed, agricultural implements, cars, buses and billion-dollar pay hikes to public sector workers – none of which the country can afford – during the election campaign.

The party’s propaganda occupies hours of TV and radio broadcasting and fills the state-owned press while the opposition struggles to get any air time.
In Thursday’s state-run newspapers, Zanu-PF full-page advertisements run on alternate pages, with just a single quarter-page ad for Simba Makoni and none for the MDC.
But, unlike prior elections, this year there has been little evidence of violent harassment of the opposition.
Cynics say that is because Mugabe knows he has already stitched up the result.

And yet they still dare to hope that this time, the weight of numbers will be so overwhelming that it will be impossible to hide the truth: that with few exceptions the whole nation is waving the red card at the ‘old man’ in State House.