In a heated debate on Wednesday 11 November at the Frontline Club, a panel of writers and scientists discussed the extent to which a drying world is a contributing factor in the ongoing migration crisis.

Chairing the debate, the Guardian’s environment editor John Vidal began by saying: “The Middle East and North Africa is highly politicised. There’s endless debates we could have about Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria and so forth, but the question is, is there water at the root of these problems? The answer is probably no, but lets find out.”

James Fergusson, an author and freelance journalist, drew on his experience working in the Middle East and Africa.

He said: “It was in Somalia that I started thinking water really was at the root… The turning point in the war against al-Shabaab, the al-Qaida franchise in Somalia, was about water.

“What was actually going on in Helmand in Southern Afghanistan was a water war… Water is at the root of all of this.”

Professor Tony Allan, an author and academic who advises governments and agencies in the region on water policy reform, contested this idea. “People think that if you run out of water you go to war, but in fact all you do is import some more food.”

He acknowledged that a water shortage is more likely to lead to instability in countries suffering from extreme poverty, but said “it’s food [security] that is the issue.”

Roger Blench, an anthropologist and international development specialist, broadly agreed with Allan: “There is no connection between land degradation, water shortages, rural poverty and revolutionary movements,” he said.

Explorer and filmmaker Mikael Strandberg said that from his experience in Africa, “a lot of people are migrating North to Saudi Arabia not only due to water – that’s a small part – but because they have no other opportunities.”

Fergusson contested the ideas put forward by the three other panellists, saying: “I would certainly contend that water shortage is a prime driver of a lot of conflict which leads on to war. So I would say that Syria, what’s going on now, that began with a conflict about water.”

Blench, however, argued that water conflicts were not the deep-rooted causes for war.

Allan said he agreed with Fergusson about the impact of water at a local level: “I happily agree at a lower level of social organisation and state: farmers kill each other, villages fight each other, conflict is there all the way through. But states don’t go to war over water; it would be really serious if they did.”

Taking Syria as an example, Allan argued that the conflict was a “post-imperial madness, the whole of the Middle East is a post-imperial madness… The instability that is there… is the problem; it isn’t the water.”

Strandberg said that in his experience of speaking to migrants in Yemen, “very rarely do they bring up the issue of water… They have no future – that’s why they leave – so I’ve never heard of the issue of water as being as big as this.”

Blench said that demographic growth was the central problem, and criticised failures to deal with demographic growth through policy. He said: “If we were to have science-based policy then probably priority would be trying to halt land degradation and slow down urban water mismanagement.”

On the matter of policy failure, Blench and Fergusson agreed. Fergusson said he thought policy focus should be: “Much more on soft power solutions like science and technology and… I think that water would be a good place to start.”

On Friday 19 June 2015, the Frontline Club held a screening of the genre-defying Those Who Feel the Fire Burning, an experimental film focusing on the experiences of those who risk their lives in order to reach the shores of Europe. The audience was joined by co-producer Katja Draaijer for a discussion following the screening.

Producer Katja Draaijer

On the film’s experimental narrative structure, Draaijer said: “It was always clear from the beginning that he [director Morgan Knibbe] wanted to tell the story from the perspective of a ghost. That’s why he used style elements from fiction films.”

“On the news we see all the numbers,” said Draaijer, “but he didn’t want to portray them [the refugees] as victims, but for we as an audience to experience what it is to be a refugee. That’s why he wanted to tell it from the perspective of a refugee himself.”

Asked by an audience member about the myriad languages spoken the film’s protagonists, Draaijer explained:
“Most of the time he [Knibbe] didn’t understand what was said. For the Arabic we had an Arabic translator… What he was really doing was intuitive, just really following them around. He didn’t care, really, about what they were saying. He just wanted to show the people what they do. How they cook, how they live. And that’s what he did. Sometimes he thought, ‘OK I have enough’ and turned the camera away. In the editing we found out that that really worked that way. It wasn’t so much about what they were telling us, [but] more about their experiences at the time.”

An audience member asked what personal impact the filmmaking process had on the director.

“When he started he was only 22,” replied Draaijer. “He wanted to help everyone by giving them money. So that was the first thing I said, ‘Don’t help these people by giving them money, you can help in another way.’

“I think after Lampedusa he was really emotional, for a long time… He wants the whole world to see it.”

For more information about the film and upcoming screenings, visit the Those Who Feel the Fire Burning Facebook page.