The election of cleric Hassan Rouhani to Iran’s presidency last week has Iranians and the world turning their heads to wonder: is the Islamic Republic changing direction? Will Rouhani’s promised pragmatism and reform replace the hardline conservatism of incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

An expert panel convened at the Frontline Club  on 26 June, to probe for answers.

Saeed Barzin and Mark Fitzpatrick. Credit: Jim Treadway

CBS Correspondent Elizabeth Palmer, chair for the discussion, observed:

“He’s [Rouhani] had a career which has kept him at the very core of power, very close to the Supreme Leader. So it’s hard to imagine that he will be a radical reformer. And yet, at certain stages in his career he has shown that he is a pragmatist, that he is capable of being flexible.”

During his campaign, Rouhani promised greater engagement with the West while urging the world to “acknowledge the rights” of Iran. His primary promise was to try to ease sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, as Arab Spring upheavals echo across the region, panelists saw the election as a sign that Tehran is tuning in acutely to the demands of the people. Author and journalist Azadeh Moaveni asserted:

“I see Iran changing, and I see the prospects for Iran changing from below. [It] feels differently inside the country. . .  This is a break from the police state atmosphere of the last 8 years, which has just been suffocating.”

Saeed Barzin, a longtime Iran analyst now with BBC Persian, agreed:

“What I learned from the elections is that Iranians are getting [ready] for change. That is quite clear in the way that the establishment behaved, the way that the candidates behaved, and the way that people behaved. . . . People are desperate for change. The economic situation is not good: inflation, unemployment, the value of the national currency. But, they want gradual change. They don’t want…a Libya scenario. They don’t want an Egyptian story. They want their new TV at the end of summer, and they want a new fridge for their children . . . gradual, calculated, reasonable, common sense change, and this is what indeed Mr Rouhani is representing.”

“One phrase which did not occur in this election, strikingly, was ‘Islamic Awakening’,” reflected Scott Lucas, a professor at the University of Birmingham and editor-in-chief of EA WorldView.

L-R: Elizabeth Palmer, Azadeh Moaveni, Scott Lucas. Credit: Jim Treadway

Barzin added: “The faction which was defeated in these elections was what I call the right wing of the establishment…which initially brought Ahmadinejad to power.”

With 72% of eligible voters casting ballots, Rouhani won just over 50% of the vote, while his nearest rival, conservative Tehran Mayor Mohammad Qalibaf, received only 16%, and hardliner favorite Saeed Jalili received 11%.

So, will Tehran’s tenor change in nuclear negotiations with the United States? Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, commented:

“The [current] nuclear negotiating team was criticizing Rouhani during the election, so they’re all out. But, that’s only a handful of people. My read is that Rouhani will probably bring in more pragmatists, as opposed to hardliners.”

Watch the event here or listen/download the podcast:

https://soundcloud.com/frontlineclub/iranafterahmedinejad

Throughout June, in association with BBC Persian, we will be joined by experts, journalists and commentators to make sure you are up to date with events in the country. We will be offering a portrait of outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, analysing the candidates and, following the election, we will be asking what the result means for the future of the country.

Sneak Preview BBC Persian screening: Ahmadinejad – The Populist and the Pariah

Monday 3 June 2013, 7:00 PM
The screening is organised by BBC Persian Service.
Since his election in 2005, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad has become the most well-known Iranian since the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini. Produced by the BBC Persian Service, this documentary looks at the rise of Ahmadinejad and explains how this provincial politician with a PhD in traffic management became a personality to be reckoned with.
Followed by a panel discussion with: Sadeq Saba, head of BBC Persian; Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, filmmaker and journalist and Kasra Naji, special correspondent for BBC Persian TV.

First Wednesday: Who will be the next president of Iran and why does it matter?

Wednesday 5 June 2013, 7:00 PM
On 14 June Iranians will go to to the polls to vote for a president to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but what significance does this election hold? Join us to analyse the approaching election, the main players and what the result will mean for the future of Iran. With: Kelly Golnoush Niknejad, founder and editor-in-chief of the award-winning Tehran Bureau; Roberto Toscano, Italian Ambassador to Iran (2003-2008); Saeed Barzin, Iran analyst with BBC Persian Service and the BBC Monitoring service since 2006; and Roger Cohen, a journalist, author and op-ed columnist for The New York Times.

Iran after Ahmadinejad

Wednesday 26 June 2013, 7:00 PM
Following the presidential election in Iran, we will be bringing together a panel of experts to deliberate the results and what they mean for the future of the country. In association with BBC Persian Service, we will be taking an in-depth look at Iran’s new president, exploring his affiliations and policies both at home and internationally. With: Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS); Saeed Barzin, Iran analyst with BBC Persian Service and the BBC Monitoring service since 2006. Additional speakers to be confirmed.

In association with BBC Persian:

https://soundcloud.com/frontlineclub/iranafterahmedinejad
Following the presidential election in Iran, we will be bringing together a panel of experts to deliberate the results and what they mean for the future of the country.

In association with BBC Persian Service, we will be taking an in-depth look at Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, exploring his affiliations and policies at home and internationally.

Going forward, we will examine how Rouhani will tackle some of the biggest problems facing the country: from the nuclear issue to the economic crisis, and domestic power struggles to human rights.

Chaired by Elizabeth Palmer, CBS News correspondent.

The panel:

Azadeh Moaveni is a former Middle East correspondent for Time magazine who has reported on Iran since 1999. She is the author of Lipstick Jihad, Honeymoon in Tehran, and co-author, with Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi, of Iran Awakening. She writes widely on Iran and the Middle East for Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, and other publications.

Saeed Barzin has been an Iran analyst with BBC Persian Service and the BBC Monitoring service since 2006. He has written extensively on Iranian politics, media and society for general audiences, internal BBC customers and UK government officials. Over the past 15 years he has written for a number of current affairs journals and has published several books, including the Political Biography of Mehdi Bazargan which was among the top ten best-selling books in Iran in mid 1990s.

Mark Fitzpatrick is the director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He is the author of The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding worst-case outcomes. Prior to joining IISS he had a 26-year career in the US Department of State, where in his final posting he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-proliferation.

Scott Lucas is professor of American Studies at the University of Birmingham and editor-in-chief of EA WorldView, which specialises in analysis of Iran. A specialist in US and British foreign policy and international relations, especially the Middle East and Iran, he has written and edited eleven books, more than 40 major articles, as well as producing a radio documentary and co-directing the 2007 film Laban!. Formerly a journalist in the US, he wrote for newspapers including the Guardian and The Independent and was an essayist for The New Statesman before founding EA WorldView.

This session is in association with BBC Persian Service.

Since his election in 2005, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad has become the most well-known Iranian since the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini.  He’s challenged his country’s Supreme Leader and goaded the United States, earning him both admiration and loathing. He cannot run for re-election in June 2013 but he’s seeking to continue his influence by backing a candidate whose outspoken comments defy the conservatives who have dominated Iran since the 1979 Revolution.

Produced by the BBC Persian Service, this documentary looks at the rise of Ahmadinejad and explains how this provincial politician with a PhD in traffic management became a personality to be reckoned with.

Followed by a panel discussion with:

Sadeq Saba, head of BBC Persian.

Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, filmmaker and journalist. His previous documentary for BBC Persian was The Ayatollah’s Seal, about the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Kasra Naji, special correspondent for BBC Persian TV and author of Ahmedinejad: the Secret History of Iran’s Radical Leader.

The screening is organised by BBC Persian Service

On 14 June, Iranians will go to the polls to vote in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s successor. As debate around the elections begins to heat up we will be joined by a panel of experts to talk us through the power struggles and the state of opposition movements.

Although Ahmadinejad cannot run again, he has made clear he has no intention of ending his second term quietly. Our panel will be examining the power struggle at the heart of Iran’s political system and how it will play out in the lead up to the election.

A crackdown on the media has already been seen, with the arrests of 15 journalists at the end of January. With opposition leaders still under house arrest following the disputed 2009 elections, we will be asking if, once again, we will see protests on the streets of Tehran.

Chaired by Azadeh Moaveni, a former Middle East correspondent for Time magazine who has reported on Iran since 1999. She is the author of Lipstick Jihad, Honeymoon in Tehran, and co-author, with Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi, of Iran Awakening. She writes widely on Iran and the Middle East for Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, and other publications.

The panel:

Mehri Honarbin-Holliday is senior research fellow at Canterbury Christ Church University and fellow at the Centre for Gender Studies at SOAS. She is the author of Becoming Visible in Iran: Women in Contemporary Iranian Society and Masculinities in Urban Iran.

Kelly Golnoush Niknejad is founder and editor-in-chief of the award-winning Tehran Bureau, which is hosted by the Guardian. She is also the inaugural recipient of the Innovator Award from Columbia Journalism School for “inspiring, creating, developing, or implementing new ideas that further the cause of journalism”.

Kasra Naji, special correspondent for BBC Persian TV and author of Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran’s Radical Leader.

https://soundcloud.com/frontlineclub/presidential-elections-in-iran

January

Beyond the ‘fiscal cliff’ in the United States, there is plenty of international news taking place in January.

On 10 January, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is due to commence his third term in office amid increased concerns about his health. Concerns are exacerbated by his decision to nominate his Vice President and Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro to succeed him should anything happen to the firebrand former army colonel.

Barack Obama, meanwhile, is due to commence his second and final term as US President on 21 January when he delivers his inaugural address. Although there is a ceremonial swearing-in on the big day, he will actually take the office a day earlier in a private ceremony.

In Israel, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will be hoping to emerge victorious from parliamentary elections, due 22 January. Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has returned to politics ahead of the poll, abandoning Kadima and founding a new party Hatnua.

Finally, in Addis Ababa, African leaders convene for the African Union’s leaders’ summit. They will have plenty to talk about, from Islamist militants in northern Mali, foreign backed militants in eastern DR Congo and ongoing tensions between Sudan and South Sudan, to name but a few.

February

Viewers worldwide will struggle to understand once again the rules of American Football when the Super Bowl takes place on 3 February. Expect much chat too about the adverts between the match’s interminable breaks.

On 10 February, it is the Chinese New Year, this year being the Year of Snake.

Ecuadorians will cast their votes in presidential and parliamentary elections on 17 February, with incumbent Rafael Correa seeking re-election.

Finally, the first part of the long-awaited civil trial over the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico back in 2010 is scheduled to begin 25 February.

March

Assuming he is re-elected, March will see Israeli Prime Minister travel to the United States to address the American Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC) Policy Conference, the highlight of the influential lobby group’s calendar. Addresses by President Obama and his new Secretary of State are all but inevitable. The conference runs 3-5 March.

In the UK, the long-awaited Al-Sweady Inquiry is scheduled to open on 04 March. The inquiry relates to the detention of Iraqis on 14 May 2002 following a firefight at a vehicle checkpoint known as Danny Boy. Some 20 bodies were returned the following day but it is unclear how many were killed in the firefight.

Kenyans go to the polls to elect a new president on 04 March. Last time around, the election resulted in widespread violence as the then-incumbent Mwai Kibaki refused to concede to challenger Raila Odinga. The region will be hoping for a more peaceful process this time around.

Finally, back in the United States, Private First Class Bradley Manning’s court martial is scheduled to get underway over allegations that he was responsible for divulging vast swathes of confidential information to the whistleblowing website WikiLeaks.

April

British Foreign Secretary William Hague will host his counterparts from the G8 on 10 April, with a summit following later in the year.

With global economic woes set to continue in 2013, the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings will see the world’s top financial experts convene in Washington DC from 19-21 April to discuss possible remedies. A slew of economic forecasts will come out in the days leading up to the formal meetings.

On 21 April, Paraguay holds presidential and legislative elections that follow the ousting of then-President Fernando Lugo in June 2012 over a botched operation to evict landless farmers from land they were occupying. The so-called ‘mini-coup’ was widely condemned by Paraguay’s regional neighbours.

May

An inquest opens 1 May into the death of Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, who died on 23 November 2006 in London after being poisoned with the now-infamous Polonium-210. Many suspect Russian governmental involvement.

On 8 May, Madagascans will elect a new President in delayed elections. Newsreaders will once again have to get their heads around such names as Marc Ravalomanana – the former President – and Antonanarivo – the island’s capital.

The Cannes Film Festival begins on 15 May, where Hollywood A-listers mix with unknown actors to compete for the prestigious Palm D’Or, which will be awarded on 26 May.

Finally, politics and entertainment collide on 18 May when the grand final of the Eurovision song contest takes place. The Swiss entry this year features a 94-year-old, yes, 94.

June

With Iran’s nuclear programme likely to feature prominently in 2013, amid talk of an impending Israeli attack, there will be intense interest in who will be elected to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president when vote opens on 14 June. In reality, the outcome is unlikely to make much difference since the country’s nuclear policy is widely thought to be controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Three days later, on 17 June, the G8 summit takes place in Northern Ireland, hosted by British Prime Minister David Cameron. It represents a historic moment for the once-troubled province.

Finally, Prince William, the Duke of Cambridge, turns 31 on 21 June. Of course, this will be dwarfed by interest in the Duchess of Cambridge’s pregnancy, which will have reached hysterical levels by this point. Expect wall-to-wall coverage.

Images courtesy of Mark III Photonics / Shutterstock.com

By Nicole Hunt

The World Health Assembly and the UN Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review both open in Geneva on Monday. The WHA, which runs until 26 May, is due to agree on a Draft Global Vaccine Action Plan, while the UNHRC, which runs until 4 June, is due to consider the human rights situation in Bahrain, Tunisia, Morocco, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and the UK, among others.

Following talks between the IAEA and Iranian officials last week, IAEA Director General Yukia Amano heads to Tehran to meet with Secretary of the Supreme National Council Saeed Jalili and other senior government officials. The visit comes two days before Iran is due to resume talks with its P5+1 partners in Baghdad on Wednesday.

Imprisoned Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko’s trial for embezzlement resumes in Kharkiv. Tymoshenko’s appeal trial for her earlier conviction on abuse of power charges was abruptly postponed last week to give the court more time to study new material. Awkwardly for Ukraine, that decision means that her next hearing on 26 June will take place during the Euro 2012 tournament, guaranteeing even more international attention.

Italy’s national statistics agency releases its annual report on the state of the nation on Tuesday, which in all likelihood is not going to be particularly positive. The report looks at socio-economic developments in the past 20 years, focusing on inequalities in the economic system, and considers prospects for the country’s economic future.

Other than that, Tuesday is all about big court dates. The European Court for Human Rights issues its judgement in the long-running case of Scoppola v. Italy, which considers prisoners’ voting rights in the EU.  In Port Louis, Mauritius, two men go on trial for the January 2011 murder of Northern Irish honeymooner Michaela McAreavey, daughter of Tyrone Gaelic football manager Mickey Harte.

In Ventersdorp, South Africa, the verdict is due in the case of two men, one of them an unnamed teenager, who are charged with the April 2010 murder of Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB) leader Eugene Terre’blanche. And in Manama, a court hearing is scheduled in the re-trial of 21 activists charged with attempting to overthrow the monarchy, including hunger striker Abdulhadi al Khawaja,

After months of protests over military rule and weeks of legal wrangling over candidates and the election itself, Egypt’s presidential election is finally set to go ahead on Wednesday. Former Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa and moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh are front-runners in the campaign, which has seen several candidates disqualified. Voting continues on Saturday, with a second round scheduled for 16-17 June.

European Council President Herman Van Rompuy hosts an informal meeting of EU leaders in Brussels, the first for French President Francois Hollande and presumably the only meeting for Greece’s caretaker Prime Minister Panagotis Pikrammenos, who is keeping an eye on things while Greece prepares for new elections on 17 June. EU growth and ongoing political uncertainty are expected to dominate the agenda.

The European Parliament wraps up its four day session in Strasbourg on Thursday with a vote on a resolution regarding the situation in Ukraine and Yulia Tymoshenko. MEPs actually debate the resolution on Tuesday, but any official censure of the Ukrainian government will have to wait until today’s vote. Parliametnarians also vote on a resolution on the fight against homophobia in Europe.

Amnesty International launches its annual State of the World’s Human Rights report in London. Last year’s report focused on the use of new technologies to combat human rights abuses throughout the world, and particularly in the Middle East. This year’s update will allow us to see how or if human rights have progressed in those same countries, many of them under new governments or constitutions.

The Square Kilometre Array Organisation, which is responsible for deciding whether the €1.5bn telescope will be built in Australia or South Africa, meets in Amsterdam on Friday. A decision on the site had been expected in April, but the SKA instead set up a working group to look at maximising value from the investments made by both candidates. A final decision could be made at Friday’s meeting…or the members could instead decide to go away and think about it some more.

The UN Working Group on the use of mercenaries wraps up a five-day visit to Libya, the first to the country by independent experts designated by the UN Human Rights Council. A press conference is planned in Tripoli to discuss the Group’s preliminary findings regarding allegations about the use of mercenaries during last year’s conflict and an assessment of the measures taken by the Libyan government to address the issue and its aftermath.

The African nation of Lesotho is holding parliamentary elections on Saturday, hoping to choose a functioning government and avoid the years of political deadlock that followed polls in 2007. Prime Minister Mosisili Pakalitha recently made waves by defecting from the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy, opting instead to create the Ntsu Democratic Congress.

Fans of Europop, Engelbert Humperdinck, and Central Europe are in for a treat, as Baku, Azerbaijan hosts the finals of the Eurovision Song Contest. Organisers have come under fire for holding this year’s contest in Baku despite strong criticisms of Azerbaijan’s human rights record and allegations that a park adjacent to the Baku Crystal Palace (where the contest is held) was created by illegally evicting homeowners and expropriating the land.

Nepal’s MPs have until Sunday to promulgate a new constitution, which was originally due in May 2010. The deadline has been repeatedly extended over the past two years, but lawmakers recently announced that they had come to an agreement on some of the most contentious issues, raising hopes that Sunday’s deadline may be the last.

In other international parliamentary news, Iran’s new parliament is sche
duled to begin a new session, with a customary opening speech from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini. Following elections in March, the new parliament includes nearly 200 new MPs and is dominated by conservatives, many of them opposed to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which means Ahmadinejad could once again find himself hauled before parliament for questioning.

Recent months have seen increased tension between Iran, its neighbours and the West.

Israel’s concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, the storming of the UK embassy in Tehran and the closure of the Tehran embassy have all played a part in ratcheting up tensions across the region.

Sanctions on the trade of its oil provoked warnings from Iran that they will close vital access to the strait of Hormuz.

As President Barack Obama warned against the “loose talk of war” Iran’s political elite is also focused on internal power struggles between the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Join us as we bring together a prominent panel to discuss the growing tensions between Iran, its neighbours and the West, the impact of the power struggles at the heart of government and what role the pro-democracy movement still might play in the country’s future.

Chaired by Martin Fletcher, associate editor and former foreign editor of The Times.

With:

Ran Gidor, the Minister-Counsellor for Political Affairs at the Embassy of Israel in London. Prior to this he worked as the Head of the UK & Ireland Desk at the Israeli Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem. From 2000 to 2003 he served as the Cultural & Academic Attaché at the Embassy of Israel in Beijing, China. From 1997 to 2000, he served as the deputy Ambassador at the Embassy of Israel in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Azadeh Moaveni, Iranian-American writer, journalist and former Middle East correspondent for Time magazine. She is author of Lipstick Jihad and co-author, with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi, of Iran Awakening.

Roberto Toscano, Italian Ambassador to Iran for five years (2003-2008). As a career diplomat, he has served in a number of other posts (India, Chile, USSR, Spain, United States, as well as at Italy’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations at Geneva). He is the author of books and articles on human rights, peacekeeping, conflict prevention, ethics and international relations.

Christopher de Bellaigue, a leading expert on modern Iran. Between 1996 and 2007, he lived and worked as a journalist in south Asia and the Middle East, writing for The Economist, the Financial Times, the Independent and the New York Review of Books. He is author of many books including most recently Patriot of Persia: Muhammad Mossadegh and a Very British Coup.

Picture credit: Daniella Zalcman

Recent months have seen a rise in tension between Iran and the West; the storming of the UK embassy in Tehran in November led William Hague to order the expulsion of Iranian diplomats from the UK and the closure of the embassy in Tehran.

The latest flashpoint has been the strait of Hormuz, the narrowest point in the Gulf, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes. Iran has warned that if sanctions on the trade in Iranian oil come into effect they could respond by closing the strait. Recent Iranian and Israeli military activity in the region has only increased these tensions.

Internally 2011 saw ncreased tensions in the country’s political elite focusing on a power struggle between the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

There was a continued crackdown on dissidents, with a rise in arrests and executions and the suggestion that Iran might follow North Korea in creating a domestic intranet that could eventually close off the internet to millions of Iranians.

Join us at the Royal Institution of Great Britain where we will be discussing the growing tensions between Iran and the West, the impact of the power struggles at the heart of government and looking at the future of the pro-democracy Green Movement.

Picture credit: Daniella Zalcman

Who is this man? And how has he consolidated the Revolution?

BBC Persian’s ground-breaking documentary, The Ayatollah’s Seal, charts the Ayatollah’s reign and, through a number of interviews with relatives, biographers and politicians, builds a profile of Iran’s most powerful man.