A round up of world news in the week ahead from journalist resource ForesightNews.

Monday 17 December

Monday marks two years since Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation, an act of protest that that inspired millions to challenge the status quo across the Middle East. Two years on, despite regime change in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, the continuing unrest in countries such as Syria, Egypt and Bahrain suggests the region’s upheaval has some time to run yet.

In North Korea, they will be marking the first anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-Il. The successful satellite launch last week means there is considerably less pressure on his son Kim Jong-un as he completes his first year at the helm of the secretive communist state.

Meanwhile, a hearing is due to take place in Milan in Silvio Berlusconi’s trial over his alleged sexual exploits with Moroccan dancer Karima el Mahroug. Ruby, as she is also known, was supposed to be testifying at the hearing but is in Mexico with no plans to return until next month.

Gujarat in Western India holds the second and final phase of its assembly elections. The state is led by Narendra Modi of the BJP and his expected re-election would bolster his case for one day becoming India’s Prime Minister. Counting takes place on 20 December.

Finally, in Washington DC,  the IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is due to submit a report to member’s of the fund’s board on actions taken by Argentina to address serious concerns about the reliability of its official growth and inflation data. The fund has warned Kristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government that failure to adequately address concerns could result in ‘additional measures’ being taken by the fund.

Tuesday 18 December

On Tuesday, imprisoned former Ukranian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is due back in court facing charges of embezzlement dating back to the 1990s. Convicted of abuse of power in October last year, she is currently awaiting the judgement of an appeal lodged with the European Court of Human Rights, which may be handed down as early as this month.

In The Hague, the International Criminal Court is scheduled to hand down its judgement in the case of Congolese militia leader Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui, who stands accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Lastly, in the United States, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is due to speak at the National Press Club about challenges facing America’s military.

Wednesday 19 December

Wednesday is election day in South Korea. Leading candidates to replace Lee Myung-bak are Park Geun-hye of the incumbent New Frontier party, and Moon Jae-in of the liberal Democratic United party. Whether North Korea’s successful launch has an impact on the presidential poll remains to be seen; both figures have vowed to take a more conciliatory approach with Pyongyang than that taken under President Lee.

In France, an appeal court is due to decide whether or not pursue its investigation into suggestions that Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the former IMF head and one-time French presidential contender, was involved in a prostitution ring. This follows last week’s settlement in New York of the civil case brought against Strauss-Kahn by Sofitel employee Nafissatou Diallo.

French President Francois Holland is due to begin an official a two-day visit to Algeria, where he is to meet his counterpart Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

In New York, the UN Security Council will have plenty to talk about at its regular monthly meeting on the Middle East.

Finally, there are further protests planned in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires against Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s policies.

Thursday 20 December

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to hold an annual press conference where is likely to face questions on a raft of issues, not least his position on Syria as Russia appears to be distancing itself from Bashar al Assad’s regime.

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, still holed up in the Ecuadorian embassy in London, is due to speak to supporters.

Friday 21 December

On Friday, US President Barack Obama is scheduled to head to Hawaii, where he plans to spend the holidays with the First Family. However, it remains to be seen whether the impasse over fiscal cliff negotiations ends up forcing the president to stay in DC. As the New Year deadline looms, partisanship in the US capital shows no sign of abating.

In Italy, Mario Monti is due to hold his end of year press conference. He has vowed to step down as Prime Minister once he has pushed through next year’s budget, with elections now expected in February. It remains to be seen whether Silvio Berlusconi’s announcement that he plans to seek to lead Italy once more is enough to change Mr Monti’s mind.

Finally, Vladimir Putin is due to travel to Brussels for the EU-Russia summit.

Saturday 22 December

On Saturday, Egyptians are due to vote in the second phase of a referendum on the country’s new constitution, with opponents of President Mohamed Morsi urging people to reject the new constitution. Regardless of the result, more unrest seems certain.

Sunday 23 December

Finally, Japan’s Emperor Akihito turns 79 on Sunday. He traditionally meets with reporters on his birthday, and may be asked about regional tensions.

Some images courtesy of fotostory / Shutterstock.com.

The scene couldn’t have been more different from two years ago. In the same conference hall in the same Buenos Aires hotel, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (Nestor’s wife) had waved to the cameras and blown kisses to the millions who had voted for her.

The popularity of Argentina’s first elected female president (known simply by her first name, ‘Cristina’) has plummeted since that triumphant night in 2007. A protracted conflict with the country’s all-powerful rural bloc last year cost her dearly. She’s never really bounced back.

Yesterday’s mid-term was her chance to turn that around and breath new life into the “K Model” of politics. It didn’t happen that way. A centre-right coalition headed by dissident Peronist Francisco de Narvaez and backed by the business tycoon Mauricio Macri (former chairman of Boca Juniors) pipped the Kirchners to the post.

Analysts are busily assessing what the result means. One thing is clear. This is good for Argentine democracy. Congress has become an increasingly lame dog under the Kirchner reign, which began with Nestor’s election in 2003. Both enjoyed a parliamentary majority in the Lower House. Now that’s gone.

Logic would suppose that they will need to tone down their centrist presidential style and seek to rebuild alliances in Congress. But logic and politics are uneasy bedfellows, especially in Argentina. The new deputies elected yesterday won’t sit until December (the midterms were brought forward from October to July 28). A deluge of policies could feasibly be pushed through between now and then.

The worst case scenario would be that the Kirchners refuse to take the parliamentary route. With strong support among the ‘social classes’, as Argentina’s disenfranchised are called here, they could seek to rule through the street. It would be the first time. Argentine political activists like nothing better than a march or strike. The electorate might have shown a disgruntlement with the Kirchners, but the unions remain behind them. It’s amazing how much trouble transport workers can make if they decide to down tools (or, worse, block roads).

There was a longer-term issue at stake at yesteday’s elections as well. 2011 marks the end of Cristina’s presidential term. A strong win in the mid-terms would have set up Nestor to replace her in the hot seat, or at least one of their allies. Now the presidential race has been thrown wide open. Expect to see the Kirchner quorum diminish in coming months as Peronist legislators throw their weight behind other contenders from with the ruling party.

Sunday’s mid-terms mark a turn in Argentine domestic politics. The Kirchners’ six-year grip on power has loosened. It’s unclear how things will now pan out. It’s bound to get messy. But true democratic politics is a messy game. And with presidential elections in 2011, there’s all to play for.  

Now attention is being drawn to his activities outside Venezuela’s borders. Chávez likes to cast himself as the modern day Simón Bolívar, the great liberator who freed South America from Spanish rule.

Bolívar dreamt of uniting the independent republics of the continent in a common federation. Chávez has taken up that call, terming it the “Bolivarian Alternative” for South America. There’s work on a regional development bank, stronger trade relations and closer political ties. 

But such “cooperation” comes at a cost. Precisely $220bn over since 2005, if a new report is to be believed. Venezuela has become well known for offering subsidies, oil exchange programmes and other forms of financial support under President Chávez. But until now, no-one has tried to quantify exactly how much.

According to Centro de Investigaciones Economicas, a Caribbean think-tank, the money is primarily earmarked for fourteen allied countries. Most are from South America. Bolivia and Cuba are perhaps the best known. Around 90,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude arrive in Havana every day, for example. In exchange, Cuba sends its doctors to help Venezuela’s disenfranchised (Chávez’s primary voters).

Venezuela’s Bolivarian ambitions have stretched since Bolívar’s day. Now Russia tops the 21st Century socialist gravy train. Chávez has invested $34.5bn in the former Soviet Union through arms purchases and energy agreements.

Where does the money come from? In short, oil. The state-run energy company PDVSA has benefited from record high prices in recent years. And Chávez’s regime has not been slow in taking advantage of this cash cow. Now that world oil prices are crashing, it’s unclear how Venezuela’s strategy of cheque book diplomacy will shape up in leaner times.

One country that could feel the pinch is Argentina. International investors have been tempted to give the country a wide berth since it defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2001. Venezuela has ridden to the rescue, buying up government bonds to the tune of $5bn in recent years.

Argentina’s president Cristina Kirchner, is due to speak at the LSE in London later this week. Her relationship with Venezuela has caused problems in the past. In the run-up to her election, airport officials detained a Venezuelan businessman who was found with $800,000 in his suitcase. The money was allegedly destined for Cristina’s election campaign.
 
What strings are attached to Venezuela’s largesse is not clear. A worthwhile question, perhaps, for any journalist attending Cristina’s LSE speech on Friday?

Her doctor says she’s suffering from stress and heat exhaustion. The country’s taxi drivers are convinced to a man that she was having some (more?) plastic surgery done.  

They also say that she’s too fond of flying off around the world rather than manning the ship at home. The milometre of the presidential jet has so far clocked up 75,000km under her watch.

Her most ignoble trip since being elected in October 2007 was a flying visit she made to Italy last year. It was for a UN-organised emergency summit on agriculture (prices were allegedly going through the roof because countries like Argentina were devoting land to biofuels and soya [for pig swill and chicken feed] rather than food to fill the bellies of the world’s growing population).

After lecturing the world’s leaders on the need for sustainable agriculture, she popped off for a tour of Rome’s jewellery stores. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, Argentine farmers were blocking roads and supermarket shelves were growing empty as a vitriolic battle with the country’s rural heartlands over increased export taxes was unfolding.

Cristina has trips to India, Korea, Spain and the US scheduled for the coming months. The presidential retinue never had such air mile opportunities under her husband and former president Nestor. It was enough just to drag him out of his provincial fiefdom in Santa Cruz state to fulfil his presidential duties.      

But at least Cristina got her photo taken with Fidel. Quite an achievement. It’s the first images the Cuban people have seen of their frail ex-leader in several months.

Good to see Fidel’s still wearing his trademark tracksuit. It’s difficult to make out the brand from the photo. When the lingering living legend first became ill and swapped his battle fatigues for more comfortable wear, the communist icon used to wear Adidas.

The photo’s not that clear, but I think the famous triangular stripes of the US brand can be made out. Is there a sponsorship deal running here, I wonder?  As for Cristina, points for guessing if she’s had any surgery. Additional surgery that is.