The Republic of South Sudan was awash with celebrations this weekend as it became officially independent from the North following a landslide referendum in February this year, when 99 per cent of South Sudanese voted for independence.
Juba, the new capital, was packed with dignitaries and officials to mark the new county’s creation. Among them was the new President of Sudan, Salva Kiir Mayardit, the UK ambassador for the Republic, Alistair McPhaill OBE and UN General Secretary, Ban Ki Moon.
Sudan’s president Omar al Bashir was the first to officially recognise the new country and bless his "brothers in the south". But, he warned, "brotherly relations depended on secure borders and non-interference in each others’ affairs".
Only hours after secession, Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party deployed troops to the ‘flashpoint states’ in the areas surrounding South Kordofan and Blue Nile that have been at the centre of fierce fighting and conflict. Despite the governmen’s insistence that such an exercise is ‘routine’, the timing appears to be a show of force over the new South.
Salva Kiir’s speech at the celebrations balanced the need to maintain relations with Bashir whilst asserting the country’s newly-found independence: "Abyei, Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan we have not forgotten you. When you cry, we cry,” he said.
The new president also granted amnesty to those who fought against him. At the same time, Bashir has revoked the citizenship of all South Sudanese who live in the north.
Despite agreement over independence, there are still logistical considerations that need to be addressed between the two countries. With disputes over oil, national borders and citizenship, the 193rd country of the world has a lot of problems to resolve if it wants to shake off the ‘pre-failed state label.’ With analysts less than optimistic about the country’s prospects of doing so, the reality of independence is becoming increasingly clear.
Tomorrow night will be discussing what the future holds for North and South Sudan with an expert panel that includes: Lindsey Hilsum who has just returned from South Sudan; Lord Teverson, chair of the House of Lords EU Foreign Affairs Sub-Committee which as just published ‘The EU and Sudan: On the Brink of Change; Dr Ahmed al-Shahi co-founder of the Sudan Programme at Oxford University and Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Ltd.
The event will be chaired by Richard Dowden, Director of the Royal African Society.
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Juba, the capital of the semi-autonomous region of South Sudan, is currently extremely tense, awaiting the reaction of national president Omar al-Bashir to tomorrow’s International Criminal Court decision on whether to issue an arrest warrant against him. Should the ICC go ahead with the indictment – for ten counts of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide allegedly committed in Darfur – not only will it be the first such indictment against a sitting head of state but could also imperil the faltering north south peace deal, the so-called Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
The CPA supposedly ended decades of civil war with a negotiated power sharing agreement that calls for democratic elections before July and allows the South a vote for independence in 2011. Thus a potential ICC arrest warrant against al Bashir poses a serious dilemma for the government of the nascent state: it could entirely unravel the CPA and thus undermine the agreement for a vote on self-determination but it could also lead to a pre-emptive unilateral declaration of independence should the beleaguered national president opt to declare a state of emergency.
In the meantime everyone is waiting to see what happens next: not really a novel experience here in a region where everyone is waiting for the opportunity to become the world’s newest independent nation state. Most people seem to regard a yes vote on independence as a foregone conclusion and there is a growing feeling that there is no need to wait another two years. The CPA stipulated that there should be a six year “interim period” during which time both sides should work to make unity attractive but in reality there is currently no sign of any benefits to unity and both northern and southern armies appear to be squaring up for another fight and digging in along the disputed north-south border.
In Juba and other large southern towns the Government of Southern Sudan’s military and security forces are on full alert, although, somewhat paradoxically their main potential targets are members of the north’s military and security the components of the (supposedly) Joint Integrated Units that remain entirely loyal to the Government of National Unity in Khartoum.
Thus the next few days could well be the turning point in the history of a nation that has remained at war with itself for over four decades. We are just going to have to wait and see what happens next.
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