L-R: John Everard, Jang Jin-sung, Shirley Lee and Peter French.

Everard started the discussion by asking Jang if he thought North Korea has changed since he left, to which Jang replied through his translator, Shirley Lee, who is also an academic and editor of New International Focus, that the biggest change was the death of Kim Jong-il and the succession of his son, Kim Jong-un. Now living in South Korea, Jang founded the defector’s magazine New International Focus, but before he left, he lived a life of privilege and was the older Kim’s favourite poet.

“The single most important change is that the young man came into that leadership rather than grew into it [like his father]. On the surface, it looks like a Kim was ruling then and a Kim is ruling now, but what also happened was the elite structure that supported Kim Jong-il’s leadership has remained unchanged. Kim Jong-un is the avatar, is the icon off Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-sun, he is not a person, he is an image that we see.”

Everard asked French to explain his claim in his book that suggests there is a logical consistency to the way North Korea is acting.  “This is a country that was threatened with nuclear annihilation,” French replied. Referring to their colonisation by Japan and the following Korean War, he added, “For all this theatrical victimhood of this period, [their behaviour] is sort of understandable. Kim Jong-sun is still considered by many who defected from the country as a great man. In the post-WWII period, he was a great nation builder. The idea in its totality is a compelling idea, but in its reality it becomes totally warped.”

An audience member asked the panel, “If the current regime collapses, who would be there to pick up the pieces?”

“The dirty little secret for all of us is reunification is not something we want,” said French. “Unfortunately because there are 22 million North Koreans, we can’t afford it. The division between North and the South has grown and grown and many young people in South Korea don’t want to take this on; they want to get a mortgage, buy a house and to do what everyone else does. Nobody needs this bill right now.”

When asked by an audience member, “What do you think North Koreans think about the outside?” Jang answered, “A lot of people rightly worry about the physical implications of collapse, and any change in the status quo in terms of economics, security and refugees. But I know how difficult it has been for me, a man who had full access to South Korean culture, and I still feel underage.”

“If we do not begin to think about the emotional cost of recovering the lost humanity of the North Korean people, no matter what happens at the top, no matter what leadership comes in, the people will not be ready to enjoy what they are entitled to.”

You can listen back or watch the event here:

Analysts and experts treated the audience to rare accounts and informed insight into the North Korean regime’s mindset on Tuesday 15th April at the Frontline Club.

BBC East Asia Editor Charles Scanlon hosted the discussion on the hot topic of North Korea’s threat – is it imminent, or is it overstated? – with former British Ambassador to North Korea John Everard, Cambridge lecturer Dr. John Swenson-Wright and Andrea Berger, a Research Fellow in Nuclear Analysis at the Royal United Services Institute.

(L-R) John Swenson-Wright, Charles Scanlon, Andrea Berger and John Everard.  Photo: Alex Glynn

Everard reflected on Kim Jong-Un’s behaviour and what it meant:

“Given the way the North Koreans continued the escalation – even after the US had offered them a ladder to climb down by famously postponing their missile test – at that point, if it had just been a point of Kim Jong-Un trying to show he is strong, he could’ve claimed victory. . . . But he didn’t do that – it leads me to think that the North Koreans want the US to finally recognise them as a nuclear state; they want them to cease their hostile policy to North Korea and they want aid”

On the other hand, Swenson-Wright, who had recently returned from Seoul, spoke about how the North’s actions were so intrinsically linked to South Korea:

“Some of us thought that the North Koreans were looking to test the new relationship with Park Geun-hye [the new South Korean president] and that’s a consistent pattern we’ve seen when there is a transition in South Korean politics.”
“There is an argument that we should be ignoring this country. The problem there is that if you try and put North Korea in a box and try to contain it, you give them the opportunity to engage in these efforts to proliferate and enhance its capabilities,” he added.

Scanlon asked Berger, who had recently been to North Korea spending time with military generals and the Worker’s Party, if there is any substance behind the threat. She replied:

“For the threats to be credible there has to be capability and intent. On the capability side there is a very large question mark over their nuclear capabilities and ballistic missile capabilities. We don’t think they have the capability to hit [as far as they claimed]. But North Korea certainly seems like it’s working to develop its [military] capabilities. So even though they might not be there yet, they look like they want to reach that ability.”

An audience member asked the panel what the likelihood was of either side opening fire and causing deaths. There was a slight disagreement:

Berger felt it was unlikely because the North would be scared of the South’s reaction. She cited an incident while Lee Myung-bak was in power in the South where the North caused the death of South Koreans: “The current leader in South Korea has made very clear that that situation will not be repeated and I think the North has heard that message.”

Everard disagreed, stating:

“I think that the probability is quite high. They have in the past have got away with sinking a South Korean vessel and shelling South Korean gun placements on an island. I’ve got a sinking feeling they think they can get away with this again.”

Alex Glynn is a freelance journalist currently doing a Newspaper Journalism MA at City University.

You can watch the video of last nights event and listen to or download the podcast below:

https://soundcloud.com/frontlineclub/north-korea-sabre-rattling-or