As the ceremonies to mark the passing of Nelson Mandela come to a close and South Africa prepares for a national election, we will be bringing together a panel to look at the political future of the country.
This year’s election will be the fifth free election since the end of apartheid in 1994. As South Africa enters its 20th year of democracy we will be examining today’s political landscape. What does the future hold for the ANC and its current leader Jacob Zuma?
With wide-spread corruption, unemployment rising and slow economic growth under the ANC, who will the people of South Africa turn to in 2014? The ANC is still the dominant political force but without change will this still be the case following another term? We will be looking at the political make-up of the country, where the divisions lie and how these might develop.
Chaired by Patrick Smith, the editor-in-chief of Africa Confidential and Africa-Asia Confidential.
The panel:
John Battersby is the country manager of Brand South Africa in the UK. Previously he was editor-in-chief of the Sunday Independent in Johannesburg, and served as The New York Times and the Christian Science Monitor’s southern Africa correspondent.
Sophie Masipa is the director of communications at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, established in 2006 with a focus on the critical importance of leadership and governance in Africa.
Martin Plaut is senior research fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, former BBC Africa editor and author of a number of books including Who Rules South Africa?
Jonny Steinberg is a South African writer and lecturer in African Studies at Oxford University. His work explores South African people and institutions in the wake of the transition to democracy.
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Monday 15 March
On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will host annual consultations in Tokyo with the European Union, attended by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.
Meanwhile, US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be in London where, among other things, he is scheduled to participate in a discussion with his outgoing UK counterpart Sir Mervyn King on lessons learned from the financial crisis.
Tuesday 26 March
Also, South African President Jacob Zuma will host his counterparts from Russia, India, China and Brazil for a two-day summit in Durban.
In Doha, heads of state and government will convene for the annual League of Arab States summit, which also runs until Wednesday.
Lastly, in the United States the Supreme Court will take up the contentious issue of same-sex marriage, when it hears arguments in a case relating to California’s Prop 8. On Wednesday, the nine justices will hear arguments in a challenge to the Defense of Marriage Act.
Wednesday 27 March
The UN Security Council, meanwhile, is scheduled to discuss Mali.
Finally, a review into the ability of US military commanders to overturn convictions of servicemen is due to be handed to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. It follows criticism when this was used recently to overturn the conviction of an Air Force serviceman who had been found guilty in Italy of sexual assault.
Thursday 28 March
On Thursday, the latest mission to the International Space Station is due to launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.
Finally, newly-inaugurated Pope Francis is scheduled to hold a Holy Thursday mass at a juvenile prison in Rome.
Friday 29 March
Pictures courtesy of Shutterstock.com – SeanPavonePhoto / Action Sports Photography
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A round up of world news in the week ahead from journalist resource ForesightNews.
By Jasper Wenban-Smith, international editor of ForesightNews.
Monday 10 December
A bombastic week of international news kicks off Monday with the opening of the window for North Korea’s latest satellite launch attempt. The launch will have important implications, both domestic and international. Domestically, a successful launch would boost the credibility of Kim Jong-un; conversely, a second consecutive failure might have important implications in a country where power is so concentrated among a military elite. Whether successful or not, the launch will add to regional tensions and may even influence the outcome of South Korea’s presidential elections, due on 19th December.
The seemingly endless conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo will be the subject of consultations on Monday when the African Union’s Peace and Security Council meet to discuss the M23 rebel movement at the AU HQ in Addis Ababa.
Meanwhile, in New York, the UN’s Security Council holds what is expected to be one of the highlights of the Moroccan presidency of the SC. The country’s foreign minister Saad-Eddine al Othmani will chair a high-level meeting on security in the Sahel, likely to focus on Islamist militancy in the region, notably in Mali.
In the United States, as the fiscal cliff deadline draws ever closer, President Barack Obama – who has focused almost exclusively on this issue since his re-election in November – is due to travel on Monday to the Detroit area to deliver a speech pressing the case for an agreement to avert the crisis.
Lastly on Monday, key EU figures travel to Oslo to pick up their Nobel Peace Prize.
Tuesday 11 December
Tuesday is a bit quieter, former President of Cote D’Ivoire Laurent Gbagbo is due back in the International Criminal Court for a status hearing; Canada’s Central Bank Governor Mark Carney, who will head up the Bank of England from next July, delivers a speech in Toronto; and Russia and Georgia return to the negotiating table in Geneva for the latest round of UN-mediated talks.
Wednesday 12 December
On Wednesday, Morocco hosts a Friends of Syria meeting in Marrakech. Hillary Clinton has confirmed her attendance, making it likely a slew of other foreign ministers including Foreign Secretary William Hague and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius will attend too.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver his first State of the Union address since returning to the Presidency. There will be significant interest in how the former KGB man chooses to address the increased civil unrest in Russia.
IAEA officials are due in Tehran for their latest round of talks with Iranian officials on ‘outstanding issues’ related to the country’s nuclear programme. The visit follows an announcement by Robert Wood, US Ambassador to the UN nuclear watchdog, of a March 2013 ‘deadline’ for Iran to alter its approach to negotiations or face action at the UN Security Council.
In European affairs, following their failure to reach an agreement on a long-term budget, EU leaders reconvene in Brussels on Wednesday for a two-day summit. Eurogroup finance ministers are due to meet on the sidelines to make a final determination on whether to release funds to Greece. One potential spanner in the works is that the IMF has insisted that Greece complete its debt buyback operation before funds are released. However, the schedule for the buyback operation, announced by Greece’s debt management agency on 3 December, does not foresee completion until 17 December.
Thursday 13 December
On Thursday, Tunisia’s main union the UGTT plans to hold a general strike. It coincides with a visit by Hillary Clinton to attend the final day of the Forum for the Future taking place in the country’s capital. All of this comes ahead of the second anniversary on Monday 17 December of Mohamed Bouaziz’s self-immolation.
Friday 14 December
Clinton travels on to Abu Dhabi, which on Friday hosts the third ministerial meeting of the Global Counterterrorism Forum.
Saturday 15 December
On Saturday, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has vowed to press ahead with controversial plans to hold a constitutional referendum, which is likely to result in further unrest.
A three-day conference on nuclear safety kicks off in Fukushima prefecture in Japan. Ministers are due to attend the opening day.
Sunday 16 December
Japan holds parliamentary elections on Sunday, in which Shinzo Abe and his right-leaning LDP are all but certain to regain control of the Shugiin, or lower house. They already control the upper house.
Following presidential elections earlier in the year, Venezuela holds gubernatorial elections on Sunday, with attention focused on whether defeated opposition candidate Henrique Capriles secures re-election as governor of Miranda province.
Finally, on Sunday, South Africa’s ANC opens its five-yearly policy conference. At which, despite widespread labour unrest following the Marikana mine massacre and a very public challenge from former ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, Jacob Zuma is expected to be re-elected the party’s leader.
Some images courtesy of fotostory / Shutterstock.com.
]]>"This is merely the worst, the most brutal, the most bloody of thousands of so called ‘unrest incidents’ we’ve had around the country. We have them on an almost daily basis."
Cape Town based journalist and political commentator Terry Bell set the tone at last night’s insightful discussion of the Marikana massacre and South African politics today. The talk’s key focus was not ‘what happened?’, or ‘why?’, but ‘what next?’.
The chair for the evening, Royal African Society director Richard Dowden, was joined by an expert panel, the discussion ranged from ANC corruption and economic issues, to 2024 political forecasts.
Audrey Brown, BBC producer and presenter interviewed the National Union of Mine Workers’ spokesperson, Lesiba Seshoka, following the massacre, and was shocked by his response:
"’Well the police sent out a very strong signal to these people – we will not be held to ransom, there will be no disorder.’ The response was just astonishing. The National Union of Mine Workers is meant to represent and protect these workers."
Andrew Feinstein, a former ANC MP who left the party following a public spat with Thabo Mbeki surrounding a $10 billion arms deal, took the discussion further:
"Our new Commissioner of the Police made this statement very soon after the tragedy happened, that ‘the police had nothing to apologise for.’"
Moving away from the specifics of the massacre and its precursors, Feinstein gave an impassioned insight into the ANC ‘s interior:
"Mbeki had a degree of technocratic competence… there was the sense of the building of a government…which during the Zuma administration has just collapsed. And, I would characterise the Zuma administration as one of serial ineptitude."
Jonny Steinberg, acclaimed author and lecturer in African Studies at Oxford University, gave a damning indictment of the ANC’s future prospects.
"Currently poor black South Africans vote at a greater rate than the apathetic middle class. The post-Marikana political scene will see a swing between poor, predominantly black voters, and the wealthier middle class – who will return to the poles, voting against the ANC."
"Very little is going to change in the short term, but a great deal will change in the medium term." Steinberg said. "By 2019 or 2024 we may see the end of one party movement in South Africa and an era of coalition party politics."
Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Ltd, commented on the threat of contagion of strikes to sectors that appear unrelated.
"These economic problems, combined with the perception that President Zuma is already in position to win re-election as ANC party leader, continue to undermine the party’s dominant position."
Predictably, Julius Malema‘s name arose in discussion. Steinberg and Feinstein held he was not a long term political player, while Tesfay added:
"Malema himself has become an indicator…within a couple of days of his arrival [at a mining site] or his contacting them, there is a strike. So he is providing some kind of incitement and that needs to be recognised."
Ultimately the panel highlighted the ANC’s increasingly embattled position when fielding audience questions on Malema, economic issues and corruption, which Bell described as:
"People in one another’s pockets but much more subtly than with bribes."
Feinstein added:
"I think the way in which money percolates between the mining houses, or companies in general, and the political class happens between a variety of formal and informal mechanisms, but that it is happening, there is absolutely no doubt."
Watch the event here:
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The Marikana miners’ strike in South Africa which resulted in the shooting dead of 34 workers by police is becoming a pivotal moment in South Africa’s post-apartheid history. We will be joined by a panel of experts to discuss the root causes in society and politics in South Africa that lead to the Marikana massacre.
As doubt is cast over governing authorities in the country, ANC leadership elections will take place in December which Jacob Zuma must win to guarantee a second term at presidential elections to be held in 2014. We will be examining how the Marikana massacre reflects on politics in the country and how it may effect Jacob Zuma’s chances of re – election.
Eighteen years after attaining democracy, South Africa is rife with corruption and unemployment is at crippling levels. With more and more miners joining the strike action we will be looking at the root causes of these social problems.
Chaired by Richard Dowden, director of the Royal African Society. He was Africa editor of The Independent from 1986 to 1994 before being appointed Diplomatic Editor, and then joining The Economist as their Africa Editor. He is author of Africa: Altered States, Ordinary Miracles.
With:
Terry Bell, a journalist, commentator and author based in Cape Town, South Africa, he specialises in political and economic analysis and labour matters.
Audrey Brown, a producer and presenter on BBC Focus on Africa and Network Africa.
Andrew Feinstein a former ANC Member of Parliament in South Africa, a
writer, campaigner and broadcaster. He is the author of The Shadow World: Inside the Global Arms Trade and the political memoir After the Party: A
Personal and Political Journey Inside the ANC.
Jonny Steinberg, a South African writer and scholar. He is the author of several books including Midlands and The Number, which won South Africa’s premier nonfiction award, the Sunday Times Alan Paton Prize. He is currently a lecturer in African Studies at Oxford.
Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Ltd. Prior to joining Exclusive Analysis she worked in the field of urban development, consulting for municipal governments in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America.
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By Nicole Hunt
The UN Human Rights Committee session opens on Monday in Geneva, with the situation in Iran on the agenda for the first two days.
Meanwhile, Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos begins a five day visit to North Korea, which is currently suffering through a major food crisis.
A judge in Courbevoie, France is due to rule on whether L’Oréal heiress Liliane Bettencourt should be made a ward of the state following accusations by her daughter Françoise that she is mentally unfit to manage her €17bn fortune.
South African President Jacob Zuma hosts Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Pretoria on Tuesday for a trilateral summit, expected to focus mostly on trade.
The meeting comes on the same day that fellow BRICS country China releases its third quarter GDP figures.
In London, judges reveal the winner of this year’s Man Booker Prize for Fiction; nominees include Julian Barnes, Carol Birch, Patrick deWitt, Esi Edugyan and Stephen Kelman.
The Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh begin a 10-day trip to Australia on Wednesday, heading first to Canberra. During their visit, the royal couple will also take in Brisbane and Melbourne before heading to Perth for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting on 28 October.
Greek public and private sector unions hold a 24-hour strike to protest what they say are ‘barbaric’ austerity measures being introduced as part of the Government’s efforts to meet the conditions of its €110bn bailout from the IMF, the EU and the European Central Bank.
EU Commissioner for Internal Markets Michel Bernier holds a press conference in Brussels on Thursday to present the Commission’s proposals for reforms to the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and the Market Abuse Directive. The reforms are aimed at strengthening the EU regulatory system and increasing oversight in the wake of the financial crisis.
The European Space Agency is having a more exciting day in Kourou, French Guiana, where the first two Galileo satellites are being test-launched at 12:34pm. The full satellite project is expected to be operational by 2014.
News Corporation holds its annual general meeting in Los Angeles on Friday, amid calls from some shareholder groups to vote against the re-election of CEO Rupert Murdoch’s sons James and Lachlan to the company’s board in the wake of the UK phone hacking scandal.
In Abu Dhabi, Finance Ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council begin a two-day meeting where they discuss proposals for a single Gulf currency. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde attends on the second day.
Remember the apocalypse hysteria back in May? When the world failed to end, preacher Harold Camping revised his prediction, and is now confident that the world will in fact end on 21 October.
Assuming we’re still here, attention turns to Cairo on Saturday where the court hearing resumes for two police officers charged over the death of Khaled Said. The verdict in the case, which prompted widespread protests against police impunity last year, has been delayed twice, most recently from 24 September after new evidence emerged.
Unusually, there’s quite a lot going on on Sunday, beginning with the delayed European Council and Eurogroup meetings in Brussels. Predictably, Greece and the euro debt crisis are at the top of the agenda, with leaders focusing on economic governance and financial regulation.
Following an international uproar over five to 15 year sentences for Bahraini medical staff convicted of inciting hatred against the regime and attempting to topple the monarchy during anti-government protests earlier this year, a civil re-trial ordered by the country’s Attorney General begins in Manama.
There are also four elections taking place across the world: parliamentary polls in Tunisia, which were scheduled in the wake of President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali’s resignation back in January; a general election in Argentina, where incumbent Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is expected to win a second term; a presidential election in Bulgaria, where current President Georgi Parvanov is not eligible for a third term; and federal elections in Switzerland, where 13 parties are currently represented in parliament.
To top it off, the Rugby World Cup final takes place in Auckland.
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Tonight at the Frontline Club we discuss the rise of Jacob Zuma and the future of South Africa and the ANC. We’ll be starting at 7pm, Thurs May 7 and as usual if you can’t make it to the club in person you can join us online on the Frontline Club live channel, on the events page or on this blog.
]]>The panel will discuss the rise of Jacob Zuma against this background and look at the future of the ANC, examining whether the party will remain deeply divided and to what extent will Jacob Zuma will be able to tackle some of the biggest domestic problems facing the state, including policy failures in areas such as health, education and crime? Will he be able to address the fundamental economic imbalance that makes South Africa the most unequal society on earth? And on the foreign policy front how will Zuma and the ANC interact with the power sharing government in Zimbabwe between ZANU-PF (an ANC ally) and the MDC? link