As Pakistan gears up for crucial general elections in just over a week, on 1 May the Frontline Club hosted a panel discussion, First Wednesday: Pakistan goes to the polls, to consider the country’s prospects.

The panelists on the evening were journalist and author Irfan Husain,  Pir Zubair Shah of the Council on Foreign Relations, Umber Khairi, a producer and radio broadcaster with BBC Urdu at the BBC World Service and the High Commissioner of Pakistan to the UK, Wajid Shamsul Hasan.

L-R: Irfan Husain, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, Umber Khairi, Pir Zubair Shah Photo credit: Adil Shahzeb

Chaired by Paddy O’Connell of BBC Radio 4’s Broadcasting House, the debate aimed to give an overview of the main political parties contesting in the election – to be held on 11 May – marking their distinctions along religious and political lines. They also discussed their electioneering pledges as well as the ensuing threats and violence at rallies.

In answer to the question of the make up of the political parties, the panel agreed on their often ambiguous nature which makes some hard to distinguish along religious or political divides. The role of regional parties was also emphasised. In answer to a question of their importance, Shah explained:

“You have to be interested in the regional parties; besides Baluchistan you have to know what’s going on in tribal areas . . . who is running there, which parties are supporting them. In the tribal areas for the first time they have extended the Political Parties Act of Pakistan’s constitution; now you can run on a party political platform. However the situation there is still tenuous as attacks on secular party candidates are encouraging them to stand as independent.”

The changing face of the electorate was also linked to the emerging urban middle class, which seem to favour the party lead by Pakistan’s former cricketing hero Imran Khan. Pakistan Tehreek- e-Insaf (PTI), in Khairi’s view, is favored by younger voters but is also seen as a Taliban sympathizer:

“He is not a very experienced politician . . . he comes across as rightist. He is trying to form an alliance with Jammate Islami, a large regressive Islamist party, which has had association with Al Qaida.”

The role of the military, which over Pakistan’s 65 year history has toppled many elected governments, was also discussed. However, protracted legal disputes over its role in recent years has resulted in banning the country’s last military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, from contesting.

The question of crumbling economic infrastructures, possibly stemming from Pakistan’s intractable financial decline, was also highlighted in the discussion. Husain explained:

“The biggest single issue is currently recurring power shortages that the government could not get a handle on . . . so the country is on its knees . . . and there are areas in Pakistan where electricity goes out for 18 hours a day. . . . This is one issue I think the electorate is going to punish this government for.”

Forecasting the outcome of the elections, the panel agreed that a coalition was the most likely outcome. High Commissioner Hasan said that rural areas of Pakistan held majority votes and was therefore less hopeful for the prospects of PTI as it is more urban based. However, he foresees Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) making large scale gains in its traditional heartland province of Sindh, as well as sweeping the votes in Southern Punjab with its coalition partners.

For Khairi on the other hand, forecasting the outcome was likely to give a false picture:

“I wouldn’t like to make a prediction because when they did the voters verification, about 37 million were unverified and thrown out of registers and 36 million came in with new voters . . . it is a very unclear. I think there is going to be a coalition . . . but it is also an interesting election because it is the first time when there isn’t a right-wing religious party coalition contesting against specifically, say, PPP or Nawaz Sharif.”

Assessing the prospects of the other major parties, Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PMLN) and  PPP, Husain explained:

“The polls show that PMLN is ahead and will get the biggest number of seats so it’s very likely that he [Nawaz] will lead a coalition, but he is not expected to get an outright majority. Next to that in the polls is the PPP, which may or may not be part of a coalition. PTI is expected to do much better than before and pollsters are giving him [Khan] 15 to 30 seats out of 270. So we are looking at a coalition with Nawaz Sharif being the dominant player.”

Shah was more hopeful as the elections look set to bring in a second, consecutive democratic term in Pakistan’s history, but he was also critical:

“They have made progress on constitutional issues but face problems of power shortages and corruption and the elections in the regions are important to USA and NATO – all this is related and how you predict the outcome . . . PMLN, PTI and other religious parties will have a field day and the secular parties will suffer . . . the effect will be a hung parliament which can not do the basic things on security and foreign policy.”

You can watch the full event and listen to the podcast below:

http://soundcloud.com/frontlineclub/first-wednesday-pakistan-goes

By Nicole Hunt

EU and Ukrainian officials meet in Kiev on Monday for the annual EU-Ukraine Summit, with rumours abound that President Viktor Yanukovych is planning to skip the meeting in favour of the EurAsEC summit taking place in Moscow on the same day. Yanukovych’s planned visit to Brussels in Octoberwas delayed after opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko was convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison on what the EU says are politically motivated charges.

The Gulf Cooperation Council holds its annual summit in Riyadh, the first formal meeting of leaders since the beginning of the Arab Spring last year. The meeting begins on the same day that the UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss sanctions against Iran and receive a briefing from Jamal Benomar, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen.

Leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States meet in Moscow on Tuesday to celebrate the organisation’s 20th anniversary. The CIS was formed out of the dissolution of the Soviet Union; the initial agreement was signed by Belarus, Russia and Ukraine on 8 December, 1991, while eight more former Soviet republics joined on 21 December.

In Tripoli, Tuesday marks the deadline issued by the government and the Tripoli Council for rogue, non-Tripoli based militias to disarm and leave the city. Despite the announcement of the deadline on 6 December, clashes between militias and security forces have continued unabated.

Pending the confirmation of election results by the Supreme Court of the Democratic Republic of Congo on 17 December, President Joseph Kabila is scheduled to be sworn in for a second term in Kinshasa. International observers have raised concerns about the validity of the country’s 28 November election.

The long-awaited verdict in the ‘Government I’ genocide trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda is handed down on Wednesday in Arusha. Former Interior Minister Edouard Karemera and former President of the MRND political party Mathieu Ngirumpatse are accused of recruiting and arming the Interahamwe militia and disseminating Hutu Power propaganda.

The European Central Bank holds the first of two 36-month longer-term refinancing operations announced by ECB President Mario Draghi on 8 December as part of a series of measures to support bank lending and market activities. The LTRO comes on the same day that Italy releases Q3 GDP figures; the preliminary figures had been due in November, but were not released amid political turmoil.

Palestinian leaders meet in Cairo on Thursday, with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas expected to chair the first meeting of what would be a unified Palestinian decision-making body in place until elections are held in May 2012. Members of the Palestinian National Council, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation’s executive boards and the directors-general of various Palestinian factions are scheduled to attend.

Amid weeks of protests against the recent parliamentary elections, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gives his annual state of the nation address in Moscow.

On Friday, the South Korean military is set to turn on the lights on three giant steel Christmas trees placed at points along the country’s border with North Korea. Pyongyang has reportedly called the trees a form of ‘psychological warfare’ and has threatened ‘unexpected consequences’ if the lighting goes ahead.

Activists in Russia have planned another mass protest against the 4 December elections on Saturday, after an estimated 50,000 people turned out for the 10 December demonstration, which was organised on Facebook. The tens of thousands already signed up to attend have clearly not been swayed by President Dmitry Medvedev’s pledge to investigate allegations of electoral fraud.

Sunday is, of course, Christmas Day. While millions worldwide will be focusing on egg nog, Christmas pudding and what Santa’s left under the tree, Pakistani cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan will be addressing a rally in Karachi, where he is said to be launching a ‘revolutionary manifesto’ ahead of elections in 2013.

Sunday also marks the 20th anniversary of the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev, who had been President of the Soviet Union from October 1988. Gorbachev’s resignation came a day before the USSR was formally dissolved on 26 December, 1991.