‘What next for Afghanistan?’ asked a panel of experts at the Frontline Club on 2 April, in an event in partnership with BBC World Service, that looked at the possible outcomes of the upcoming election.
There was a certain measured optimism in the response to this question from the panel and a general feeling that this election is one to get excited about. Chaired by BBC Broadcasting House’s Paddy O’Connell, the panel of experts were grilled on the candidates, the election process, the possibility of a second round and the challenges ahead.
Straight off the plane from Afghanistan, Amnesty International’s Afghan researcher, Horia Mosadiq, told the audience what the feeling on the ground about the election was:
“Despite a series of violent attacks by the Taliban and other insurgent groups, Afghans are looking forward to these elections,” she said. “I spoke to many people from different places and they are saying, ‘Nothing can hold us back from going [to vote]’.”
Michael Semple, who is a visiting professor at the Centre for Conflict Transformation at Queen’s University, Belfast, hoped the panel would clarify some of the main assumptions surrounding the election:
“The myths that the Americans pull all the strings, that there is a great power inside the palace that can manipulate the election and that the Taliban can determine the event, will all be shattered. A rather messy process of alliance building and a popular mobilisation is going to determine events.”
The BBC World Service’s Emal Pasarly, who edits the BBC Pashto-Persian Service, said that as an Afghan, he is very excited about this election because “people are thinking there is a new hope, a new person to guide us ahead”.
Former UN secretary general’s personal representative Francesc Vendrell, who has has worked in Afghanistan since 2000, pointed out what he thought were two key factors:
“Firstly, to what degree is this election credible, and the result acceptable, to most of the Afghans. And secondly, will these elections be accepted [by] about 150 key players in Afghanistan [on] whom it really depends if it is going to be a peaceful succession from President Karzai.”
Discussing the candidates, the whole panel agreed that there are only really three frontrunners: former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Dr Zalmay Rassoul.
Describing the difference between this election and past elections, Pasarly said:
“Ashraf Ghani mentioned a lot of stuff you would hear in other parts of the world. He promised to create one million jobs, which is something unheard of in Afghan politics to hear someone come and talk about jobs.”
Semple said many supporters believe Ashraf Ghani can bring what he preached because he has track record of actually trying to do it in the cabinet already:
“People have focused over the last few years on all the things the Afghans didn’t do, but if you look [Ghani’s] track record from the early part of the process, it is delivering the first stages of state building. He has changed the currency, overturned the customs regime to regain control of revenues and he played a pivotal role pushing through the disbandment of the militias.”
O’Connell asked the panel what role the Taliban has in this election and if it is a fourth candidate in an empty chair. Vendrell replied, stating that he wasn’t surprised that the Taliban weren’t even bothering to be involved in the election, “I think their main wish is to disrupt elections”.
Semple added that:
“The Taliban have the capacity to inflict large-scale casualties . . . but I believe they are frightened to do so because they concluded that would be counter-productive.”
Mosadiq pointed out that a security concern still did exist for voters, but “the level of the killings are not the same level as 2009”.
“Despite the insecurities that still exist, what I was amazed at was the level courage that Afghan men and women were having that they still wanted to cast their vote,” she added.
Another major issue of the election is the prospect of election fraud. Pasarly pointed out that for this election the presence of social media and smart phones means that the people can hold the government more accountable than before.
“You will see from the first hour of the election, a lot of videos on Facebook and Twitter. These observers are more important and you will get a lot of the corruption and the fraud cases through there.”
Watch and listen to the event here:
How have the lives of the Afghan people been affected during the 10 years since the US-led invasion of the country in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States?
That was the focus of October’s First Wednesday discussion at Frontline Club, which was hosted by Paddy O’Connell, presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Broadcasting House.
Amid a catalogue of failures and missed opportunities outlined by the panel, Horia Mosadiq, Afghanistan researcher for Amnesty International, insisted that there have been "tremendous positive changes" in the lives of women since Operation Enduring Freedom was launched by the US government in October 2001.
Women have experienced improvements in education, healthcare, freedom of expression and improved political participation, rights and freedom of movement, said Mosadiq: "No one is lashing you for not walking with a man."
Dawood Azami, a journalist working for the BBC World Service in London and a visiting scholar, said that in a decade during which 10,000 Afghans had been killed people’s experience was of "one step forward and two steps back":
"There are signs of improvement in media, education, in construction and communications, but the biggest challenge that Afghans have today and for the past 10 years is insecurity followed by bad governance."
Violence has increased in a country where war has become a part of life for Afghan people:
"But there was always an outside actor they blamed for using the country for their own strategic interests," Azami said.
Lucy Morgan Edwards, former political advisor to the EU Ambassador in Kabul, was not convinced that the Afghan leadership wanted peace talks and argued that the international community had squandered a "golden opportunity" in 2001 to have the ultimate Taliban reconciliation with the Haqqani network and Abdul Haq, the Pashtun mujahideen commander who was executed by the Taliban in 2001 and the the former king Zahir Shah, who died in 2007:
"I’m afraid we blew it and it’s far more complicated now to deal with it," said Morgan Edwards who added that one of the biggest mistakes made by the international community was the "real politik of basically hiring these warlords to do our dirty work":
"They were not thinking in the long term and are now wondering why the place is so corrupt and why there is so much intimidation and violence in the regions," she said.
Looking ahead, Mosadiq said that Afghans across the country had told her that if the international forces leave in 2014 their greatest concern was the legacy it would leave behind:
"Are they going to leave us institutions that are strong and can protect Afghans against harm? Are they going to leave Afghanistan in a situation where we can restore rule of law and have a functioning government?
"Many Afghan women believe there ahead of talks with the Taliban there are already behind doors discussions and compromises that are happening and unfortunately women’s rights will be sacrificed," said Mosadiq, who rejected any "romanticised" ideas that Afghans wanted the return of the Taliban.
"In south Afghanistan people say we can defend ourselves against the Taliban, we can just kick them out of the village, but we don’t know if under the new reconciliation process the same Taliban commander will return as district governor and he’s going to massacre me and the whole village."
Edward Girardet, journalist, writer and producer who has reported widely from humanitarian and conflict zones, described Afghanistan as a "traumatised nation" and added that it was in need of "intelligent" recovery programmes and investment that did not involve bringing in "massive outside corporations" that require mercenaries to protect them.
"We cannot go back to 2001 but we can go back to the basics," said Girardet, who warned against repeating the mistake of the 1990s when Afghanistan was "totally abandoned":
"The international community needs to remain involved with Aghanistan, but much more intelligently," he concluded. "It doesn’t need these billions of dollars being thrown at it, it needs intelligent development."
The hashtag for this event is #fcfw
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