‘What next for Afghanistan?’ asked a panel of experts at the Frontline Club on 2 April, in an event in partnership with BBC World Service, that looked at the possible outcomes of the upcoming election.

There was a certain measured optimism in the response to this question from the panel and a general feeling that this election is one to get excited about. Chaired by BBC Broadcasting House’s Paddy O’Connell, the panel of experts were grilled on the candidates, the election process, the possibility of a second round and the challenges ahead.

Straight off the plane from Afghanistan, Amnesty International’s Afghan researcher, Horia Mosadiq, told the audience what the feeling on the ground about the election was:

“Despite a series of violent attacks by the Taliban and other insurgent groups, Afghans are looking forward to these elections,” she said. “I spoke to many people from different places and they are saying, ‘Nothing can hold us back from going [to vote]’.”

Michael Semple, who is a visiting professor at the Centre for Conflict Transformation at Queen’s University, Belfast, hoped the panel would clarify some of the main assumptions surrounding the election:

“The myths that the Americans pull all the strings, that there is a great power inside the palace that can manipulate the election and that the Taliban can determine the event, will all be shattered. A rather messy process of alliance building and a popular mobilisation is going to determine events.”

The BBC World Service’s Emal Pasarly, who edits the BBC Pashto-Persian Service, said that as an Afghan, he is very excited about this election because “people are thinking there is a new hope, a new person to guide us ahead”.

Former UN secretary general’s personal representative Francesc Vendrell, who has has worked in Afghanistan since 2000, pointed out what he thought were two key factors:

“Firstly, to what degree is this election credible, and the result acceptable, to most of the Afghans. And secondly, will these elections be accepted [by] about 150 key players in Afghanistan [on] whom it really depends if it is going to be a peaceful succession from President Karzai.”

Discussing the candidates, the whole panel agreed that there are only really three frontrunners: former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Dr Zalmay Rassoul.

Describing the difference between this election and past elections, Pasarly said:

“Ashraf Ghani mentioned a lot of stuff you would hear in other parts of the world. He promised to create one million jobs, which is something unheard of in Afghan politics to hear someone come and talk about jobs.”

Semple said many supporters believe Ashraf Ghani can bring what he preached because he has track record of actually trying to do it in the cabinet already:

“People have focused over the last few years on all the things the Afghans didn’t do, but if you look [Ghani’s] track record from the early part of the process, it is delivering the first stages of state building. He has changed the currency, overturned the customs regime to regain control of revenues and he played a pivotal role pushing through the disbandment of the militias.”

O’Connell asked the panel what role the Taliban has in this election and if it is a fourth candidate in an empty chair. Vendrell replied, stating that he wasn’t surprised that the Taliban weren’t even bothering to be involved in the election, “I think their main wish is to disrupt elections”.

Semple added that:

“The Taliban have the capacity to inflict large-scale casualties . . . but I believe they are frightened to do so because they concluded that would be counter-productive.”

Mosadiq pointed out that a security concern still did exist for voters, but “the level of the killings are not the same level as 2009”.

“Despite the insecurities that still exist, what I was amazed at was the level courage that Afghan men and women were having that they still wanted to cast their vote,” she added.

Another major issue of the election is the prospect of election fraud. Pasarly pointed out that for this election the presence of social media and smart phones means that the people can hold the government more accountable than before.

“You will see from the first hour of the election, a lot of videos on Facebook and Twitter. These observers are more important and you will get a lot of the corruption and the fraud cases through there.”

Watch and listen to the event here:

L-R: Dominic Medley, Martine van Bijlert, Quhramaana Kakar, Owen Bennett-Jones, Emal Pasarly, Michael Semple. Photo: Dan Tookey

By Dan Tookey

The Frontline Club abandoned familiar digs in Paddington on Tuesday 17 September in favour of the packed Shaw Theatre on the Euston Road. In partnership with BBC World Service for Afghanistan, they brought together five leading experts on Afghanistan to discuss the country’s recent past and near future.

Owen Bennett-Jones, freelance journalist, host of Newshour on the BBC World Service and chair of the evening’s discussion began by asking Dominic Medley, the Spokesman/Media Advisor to the NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan from June 2010 to June 2013, to give the lay of the land from Nato’s perspective:

“At the end of next year the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) mission comes to an end. It has been agreed that there will be a new mission called Resolute Support… Which will be a train, advise and assist mission. A lot smaller, a lot different; it will not be a conflict mission.”

“This is the culmination of the transition process that was worked on in the Lisbon summit in November 2010; the transition process of handing over security responsibility to the Afghan army and police.”

He continued that this process has been ongoing, with the ANA (Afghan National Army) now having responsibility for around 90% of the country and ISAF acting in a supportive capacity.

The packed Shaw Theatre. Photo: Will Spens

Emal Pasarly, the multimedia editor for the BBC Pashto-Persian service, reflected on what 2014 will bring:

“Everyone is asking whether Afghan troops will be capable of securing Afghanistan after 2014. The brief answer to this is yes.”

Although he thought there may be “cat and mouse” games provincially between the Taliban and the ANA, the cities would be secure.

Regarding the upcoming elections, Pasarly said the usual suspects would appear:

“Some will run for president and then withdraw in the hope of getting a cabinet seat. There will be those that know they will not win and will not get a cabinet seat but know that one day they will be known as those who contested the presidential election.”

He also referred to rumours that Dr Zalmai Rassoul, the Afghan Foreign Minister, had President Karzai’s support and, if true, could mean him winning the forthcoming election.

Michel Semple, Visiting Professor at the Centre for Conflict Transformation, Queen’s University, Belfast and affiliated to the Carr Centre for Human Rights Policy, Harvard Kennedy School, began by saying that “there are many conflicting narratives about Afghanistan.” The biggest problem in his eyes was that the conflict is ongoing:

“We didn’t end the conflict. It’s still ongoing. As NATO steps out, it hands over the conflict to the Afghans and that’s not good enough. Everything that we should have done and didn’t is unacceptable.”

Martine van Bijlert, co-director and co-founder of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), was gingerly hopeful:

“Among Afghans I am sensing a feeling that this is actually a new time [and] something is going to happen. In the future, Afghanistan may not only be on the receiving end of international attention. You see the most optimism among the young generation – the educated boys and girls with good jobs – who tend to be in control of their lives.”

She continued that although “disaster, fragmentation is certainly a possibility, it’s not the default scenario.”

She argued that “we in the West have not learned from our mistakes:”

“Some people have said that Afghanistan was not ready for democracy but I think that is the wrong conclusion… The problem is that we will send the same institutions, organise the same sort of conferences. It will still be in the same way. We will design problems and spend money. We haven’t learnt.”

Quhramaana Kakar. Photo: Dan Tookey.

Quhramaana Kakar, the gender advisor for the Afghanistan Peace and Reconciliation Program (High Peace Council), outlined the successes made over the last twelve years and also attempted to dispel the myths of impending disaster:

“I hope to assure fellow Afghans that we will not be in the same position as in the 80’s and 90’s. We are not going to have another civil war and we are not going to have the Taliban coming to power again.”

She pointed to the American bases that will remain in the country as an assurance that the Taliban will not come to power again. Kakar continued that she believed Afghanistan can be hopeful, so long as the democratic institutions and processes remain.