Monday 25 February

In Seoul, South Korea’s first female president, Park Geun-hye, will be inaugurated following her victory over Moon Jae-in in last December’s election. Ms Park takes office amid heightened regional tensions, in particular given Pyongyang’s recent decision to test a third nuclear device, provoking widespread international condemnation. Ms Park has vowed to take a more conciliatory approach toward her country’s neighbour to the north than that of her predecessor, Lee Myung-bak.

US Secretary of State John Kerry, meanwhile, will kick off his first international travel since taking up the post with a stop in London on Monday, where he will meet with his British counterpart William Hague. Kerry’s trip will see him visit a number of European and Middle Eastern capitals, though he will not travel to Israel this time around.

Finally, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will host Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid Muallem in Moscow for talks on Monday. Russia ‘s continued support for the Assad regime has frustrated many, particularly the United States.

Tuesday 26 February

Meanwhile, international talks on Iran’s nuclear programme will take place in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Political directors from France, Britain, Germany, the US, the EU, Russia and China will meet with representatives for the first time since last June. Indications about the prospects for progress during the talks are positive.

Finally, in New York City, a court will hear an appeal from Argentina’s government after a court there ruled in favour of billionaire Paul Singer’s hedge fund NML Capital, and others who are suing Argentina for $1.3bn in sovereign bonds owed to them since the country defaulted on its debt in 2001.

Wednesday 27 February

In the US, oral arguments are scheduled in the Supreme Court a case challenging a key element of the Voting Rights Act. Specifically, justices will hear a challenge to Section 5 of the act which which requires state and local governments in certain, mainly southern, US states to obtain federal permission before making changes that affect voting. Critics of the provision say it is outdated and unfairly singles out certain states, while supporters say it provides important protections.

Finally, delegations from rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah are expected in Cairo on Wednesday for further reconciliation talks.

Thursday 28 February

An international meeting on Syria will take place in Rome on Thursday, attended by the US Secretary of State John Kerry as well as representatives of the Syrian National Coalition, including its head Mouaz al Khatib.

In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin will host his French counterpart Francois Hollande for talks on a range of bilateral and multilateral international issues, likely to include Syria.

In India, Finance Minister P Chidambaram will present his budget for 2013/14 before the country’s parliament.

Friday 29 February

Assuming a last-minute deal is not reached during the week, drastic across-the-board cuts to federal spending – known as a sequester – are scheduled to take effect Friday. Last week, the US Department of Defense, which would be particularly hard-hit by the measure, announced plans to furlough 800,000 members of its civilian staff, should sequestration occur. Barack Obama has repeatedly warned that the cuts threaten the US economic recovery.

Lastly, former Italian Prime Minister is expected to appear in person on Friday in Milan’s court of appeal, where he is challenging his conviction last October on tax evasion charges. A verdict in the appeal is tentatively expected on 23 March.

Weekend

In Switzerland, on Sunday, a referendum is scheduled that includes a vote on whether to strengthen shareholders’ influence on the remuneration of directors and management of listed companies in order to prevent excessive pay. The outcome is likely to have international implications.

Finally, the annual policy conference of the powerful American Israeli Public Affairs Committtee (AIPAC) opens on Sunday. The three-day conference traditionally features addresses from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama, though these have yet to be confirmed this year. Obama, of course, is scheduled to visit Israel from 20 March.

Images courtesy of Katherine Welles / vipflash / Shutterstock.com

January

Beyond the ‘fiscal cliff’ in the United States, there is plenty of international news taking place in January.

On 10 January, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is due to commence his third term in office amid increased concerns about his health. Concerns are exacerbated by his decision to nominate his Vice President and Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro to succeed him should anything happen to the firebrand former army colonel.

Barack Obama, meanwhile, is due to commence his second and final term as US President on 21 January when he delivers his inaugural address. Although there is a ceremonial swearing-in on the big day, he will actually take the office a day earlier in a private ceremony.

In Israel, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will be hoping to emerge victorious from parliamentary elections, due 22 January. Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has returned to politics ahead of the poll, abandoning Kadima and founding a new party Hatnua.

Finally, in Addis Ababa, African leaders convene for the African Union’s leaders’ summit. They will have plenty to talk about, from Islamist militants in northern Mali, foreign backed militants in eastern DR Congo and ongoing tensions between Sudan and South Sudan, to name but a few.

February

Viewers worldwide will struggle to understand once again the rules of American Football when the Super Bowl takes place on 3 February. Expect much chat too about the adverts between the match’s interminable breaks.

On 10 February, it is the Chinese New Year, this year being the Year of Snake.

Ecuadorians will cast their votes in presidential and parliamentary elections on 17 February, with incumbent Rafael Correa seeking re-election.

Finally, the first part of the long-awaited civil trial over the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico back in 2010 is scheduled to begin 25 February.

March

Assuming he is re-elected, March will see Israeli Prime Minister travel to the United States to address the American Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC) Policy Conference, the highlight of the influential lobby group’s calendar. Addresses by President Obama and his new Secretary of State are all but inevitable. The conference runs 3-5 March.

In the UK, the long-awaited Al-Sweady Inquiry is scheduled to open on 04 March. The inquiry relates to the detention of Iraqis on 14 May 2002 following a firefight at a vehicle checkpoint known as Danny Boy. Some 20 bodies were returned the following day but it is unclear how many were killed in the firefight.

Kenyans go to the polls to elect a new president on 04 March. Last time around, the election resulted in widespread violence as the then-incumbent Mwai Kibaki refused to concede to challenger Raila Odinga. The region will be hoping for a more peaceful process this time around.

Finally, back in the United States, Private First Class Bradley Manning’s court martial is scheduled to get underway over allegations that he was responsible for divulging vast swathes of confidential information to the whistleblowing website WikiLeaks.

April

British Foreign Secretary William Hague will host his counterparts from the G8 on 10 April, with a summit following later in the year.

With global economic woes set to continue in 2013, the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings will see the world’s top financial experts convene in Washington DC from 19-21 April to discuss possible remedies. A slew of economic forecasts will come out in the days leading up to the formal meetings.

On 21 April, Paraguay holds presidential and legislative elections that follow the ousting of then-President Fernando Lugo in June 2012 over a botched operation to evict landless farmers from land they were occupying. The so-called ‘mini-coup’ was widely condemned by Paraguay’s regional neighbours.

May

An inquest opens 1 May into the death of Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, who died on 23 November 2006 in London after being poisoned with the now-infamous Polonium-210. Many suspect Russian governmental involvement.

On 8 May, Madagascans will elect a new President in delayed elections. Newsreaders will once again have to get their heads around such names as Marc Ravalomanana – the former President – and Antonanarivo – the island’s capital.

The Cannes Film Festival begins on 15 May, where Hollywood A-listers mix with unknown actors to compete for the prestigious Palm D’Or, which will be awarded on 26 May.

Finally, politics and entertainment collide on 18 May when the grand final of the Eurovision song contest takes place. The Swiss entry this year features a 94-year-old, yes, 94.

June

With Iran’s nuclear programme likely to feature prominently in 2013, amid talk of an impending Israeli attack, there will be intense interest in who will be elected to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president when vote opens on 14 June. In reality, the outcome is unlikely to make much difference since the country’s nuclear policy is widely thought to be controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Three days later, on 17 June, the G8 summit takes place in Northern Ireland, hosted by British Prime Minister David Cameron. It represents a historic moment for the once-troubled province.

Finally, Prince William, the Duke of Cambridge, turns 31 on 21 June. Of course, this will be dwarfed by interest in the Duchess of Cambridge’s pregnancy, which will have reached hysterical levels by this point. Expect wall-to-wall coverage.

Images courtesy of Mark III Photonics / Shutterstock.com

By Nicole Hunt

Former Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde is back in front of the Landsdomur court in Reykjavik on Monday. Haarde is charged with negligence over the country’s banking collapse in October 2008, though charges that he neglected his duties and that he failed to conduct a proper risk analysis have already been dropped. The Landsdomur was set up over 100 years ago to try parliamentarians, but had never been used until Haarde was charged.

Despite reportedly being denied permission from city authorities, Muscovites are likely to take to the streets in protest following Sunday’s presidential election. While former President/current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is expected to be returned comfortably to the top post for a third term, the thousands of people who have protested in recent months are unlikely to disappear quietly.

The long-awaited Deepwater Horizon trial is scheduled to begin in New Orleans, having been delayed from 27 February at the last minute to allow more time for negotiations. Judge Carl Barbier has been tasked with trying to ascertain which companies should share the responsibility, and therefore cost, for the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill, which devastated the Gulf of Mexico coast. The trial is expected to be divided into three phases, and is likely to last the rest of the year, if not longer.

Tuesday is, of course, not just your regular everyday ordinary Tuesday – it’s Super Tuesday (in the US, at least). Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virgina all hold their Republican primary contests, bringing us just shy of the halfway point; only 27 more primaries to go!

In election news that will attract considerably less international attention but is being closely watched domestically, results from elections in the Indian states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarkhand are due to be released on Tuesday. Although a general election isn’t due until 2014, the results will be viewed as an indicator of party support.

US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey are testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. The hearing is focused on Syria, which is notable both because of the current situation in the country and because the Armed Services Committee doesn’t usually meet to discuss countries the US military isn’t actively involved in – let alone with senior military figures.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies launches its annual Military Balance report in London, assessing the military capabilities and defence economics of 170 countries, as well as general defence expenditure trends. Last year, the report looked at when China’s military might become a threat to US power in the Pacific.

And heads up to the Apple fanboys out there (though any dedicated follower should know already): Apple is due to launch the iPad 3 in San Fransisco.

On Thursday, Continental Airlines’ appeal hearing opens in a Versailles court. The airline is challenging a December 2010 judgement which found it responsible for the 25 July, 2000 crash of a Concorde airliner after takeoff from Charles de Gaulle airport, which killed 109 people on board and four on the ground. Continental was fined €200,000, while its mechanic John Taylor was given a 15-month suspended sentence; three French employers of Aeorspatiale, Taylor’s supervisor Stanley Ford, and France’s aviation authority were cleared of responsibility.

Foreign Secretary William Hague appears before Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee’s annual hearing on developments in UK foreign policy. Expect questions on Syria and Iran, as well as discussions on the EU following the signing of the EU fiscal stability treaty.

Thursday is also International Women’s Day.

The UN’s Commission of Inquiry into Libya, which was established in February 2011 to investigate alleged violations of international human rights law in the country then led by Muammar Gaddafi, is due to present its final report to the Human Rights Council on Friday. While the report will focus on Gaddafi-era abuses, it follows recent allegations that pro-Gaddafi prisoners have been tortured at the hands of liberating militias.

Greece’s provisional fourth quarter GDP figures are released on the same day that the Finance Ministry launches a €200bn debt swap for private bondholders as part of a new rescue package. Bondholder responses to the debt swap will be closely watched; the offer closes on 12 March.

The week rounds out with two elections on an otherwise fairly quiet and sombre weekend. 

Slovakians elect 150 members to their National Council on Saturday, with the current opposition parties hoping to capitalise on public resistance to Slovakia’s involvement in EU debt bailouts. Prime Minister Iveta Radicova’s coalition government was brought down in October over changes to the European Financial Stability Facility, which Slovakians felt put them on the hook for bailing out larger and wealthier countries.  

On Sunday, El Salvador holds a vote to elect 84 members to the Congress, with municipal elections also taking place across the country. Polling shows that the conservative Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (ARENA) are leading the race, ahead of the leftist Frente Farabundo Marti para la Liberacion Nacional (FMLN) party, led by President Mauricio Funes.

Sunday also marks the first anniversary of the devastating 8.9 magnitude earthquake off of Japan’s Honshu coast, causing a 10m tsunami that wiped out whole towns and triggered a nuclear crisis at the country’s Fukushima power plant. Over 15,000 people are known to have died, while over 3,200 are still missing one year on.

By Nicole Hunt

US President Barack Obama hosts Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki for talks in Washington on Monday, with discussions focusing on strengthening the ‘strategic partnership’ between the two countries. The summit comes ahead of a looming 31 December deadline for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

Following last week’s European Council meetings, the focus early this week is, predictably, still the euro zone debt crisis. Experts from the IMF, the European Central Bank and the EU begin their sixth review mission to Athens, hoping that this time around they’ll be able to stick around until the scheduled end of the visit on Friday.

The venue changes but the topic stays the same on Tuesday, with Spain, Italy and France in the limelight. Spain’s Congreso de los Diputados convenes for the first time since elections on 20 November, though new Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy won’t formally take up his post until he’s sworn in by King Carlos later this month.

In Rome, Parliament is scheduled to begin debating Prime Minister Mario Monti’s austerity measures, which he issued by decree on 4 December. MPs are expected to approve the measures well before the 60-day deadline.

Meanwhile, French unions have planned a nationwide day of protests against their government’s austerity measures. Thousands are expected to take the streets in Paris, where the largest demonstration takes place outside of the Assemblée Nationale.

Under Egypt’s complicated election laws, another parliamentary vote is held on Wednesday, with polling taking place in nine governates, including Giza and Suez. The elections on 28 November, which were held despite violent protests only days before, covered nine provinces, including Cairo and Alexandria. A third round of voting takes place on 3 January.

In New Orleans, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management holds the first oil and natural gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico since the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster.

A Paris court is expected to issue its verdict on Thursday in the long-running corruption trial of former French President Jacques Chirac. Chirac is accused of misusing public funds and creating false job contracts during his time as Mayor of Paris. He settled a €2.2m civil suit with the city of Paris in August 2010.

Thursday also sees two meetings taking place which will be viewed very differently by Russia. President Dmitry Medvedev attends the EU-Russia Summit in Brussels, but the visit will be coloured by expressions of concern from the EU over allegations of unfair voting practices in Russia’s 4 December parliamentary elections, which saw Medvedev’s United Russia party win a majority despite heavy losses.

Over in Geneva, the World Trade Organisation holds its eighth Ministerial Conference, where delegates are expected to hold a long-awaited vote on Russian accession to the WTO.

TIME Magazine announces its annual Person of the Year on Friday. Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg was 2010’s winner; leaders in this year’s online poll (which don’t have any bearing on the final choice) include Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, footballer Lionel Messi, The 99%, Anonymous, Steve Jobs, and the Arab Youth.

The US army begins an Article 32 hearing for Private First Class Bradley Manning, which is expected to last just over a week. The hearing is to determine whether there is enough evidence to proceed with a court martial against Manning, who is accused to leaking a 2007 video to WikiLeaks which showed a military operation in Baghdad in which two Reuters reporters were killed.

As Saturday happens to be Manning’s 24th birthday, an international day of solidarity has been organised, with protests planned worldwide. Occupy London protesters have already pledged to take part.

Though it hardly seems possible as Egypt works through elections and protests and killings rage on in Syria, Saturday also marks the one year anniversary of the self-immolation of Tunisian fruit and vegetable seller Mohamed Bouazizi, an event that has been singled out as the catalyst for the Arab Spring movement as it kicked off Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution.

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The Gulf of Mexico spill has put the spotlight on the oil industry and its practices to an unprecedented degree.

Join us at the Frontline Club where we will be discussing BP and the Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion that has resulted in between 67 and 127 million gallons spilling into the sea: what are the implications not only for BP’s future but also for the oil industry?

What does the "worst US environment disaster" tell us about the oil industry and our continued reliance on this dwindling natural resource? Have the risks the industry – and politicians – have been prepared to take to sustain the supply of oil been too great?

The discussion will also reflect on Nigeria’s experience: there have been ten oil spills in the Niger delta in the past two years that have been largely ignored. Two weeks after the Gulf of Mexico explosion, an ExxonMobil pipeline burst in Akwa Ibom, spilling more than a million gallons into the delta before it was repaired. Media coverage of the Deepwater Horizon spill, along with the daily speeches by President Barack Obama, who insists he will hold BP to account for the disaster, has been in sharp contrast to the experiences of Nigerians.

Should there be a global strategy to rein in the oil companies to protect further devastation to the planet?

With:

Dr Simon Boxall, lecturer in Oceanography at the University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre (UK) who has been involved with oil spill monitoring and impact on a number of major European spills including Braer, Sea Empress, Prestige and Erika;

Dr Richard Pike, chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry who had an almost 25 year career in BP, during which time he held a number of technical and commercial positions;

John Vidal, the Guardian’s environment editor;

Ben Amunwa, a campaigner with PLATFORM, an arts and campaigns group that focuses on the oil and gas industry;

Chris Skrebowski, founding director of Peak Oil Consulting and the consulting editor of Petroleum Review, he has 38 years experience in the oil industry, starting work in 1970 as a long-term planner for BP.

Picture credit: [ Mooi ]