Monday April 22
Foreign Ministers from the European Union, including British Foreign Secretary William Hague, meet in Luxembourg on Monday. Among other things, they are expected to agree to lift remaining sanctions against Myanmar (Burma). The meeting is also a chance to discuss Syria and Mali.
In Milan, a hearing is due to take place in former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s trial for allegedly paying for sex with then 17-year-old Karima el Mahroug, better known as ‘Ruby the Heart Stealer’.
Also Monday, IAEA officials who have been visiting Japan to review the ongoing decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant are due to hold a press conference in Tokyo. There have been a number of setbacks at the site recently.
In Guantanamo, hearings are due to begin (and last all week) in the case of the alleged 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and his alleged co-conspirators.
Finally, Monday is the deadline for creditors suing the Argentine government for $1.3bn in outstanding debt to respond to Buenos Aires’ latest, court-ordered, repayment proposal.
Tuesday April 23
On Tuesday, Julius Malema, the firebrand former leader of South Africa’s ANC youth movement, is due back in court on money-laundering charges.
In Brussels, NATO Foreign Ministers are scheduled to meet on Tuesday with Afghanistan and the planned handover next year likely top of the agenda. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be in town, for a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council.
In France, the National Assembly is scheduled to vote on the country’s same-sex marriage bill, which has provoked major protests.
Finally in Washington DC, President Barack Obama will host the Emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani, for talks at the White House.
Wednesday April 24
On Wednesday, French President Francois Hollande is scheduled to hold a cabinet meeting at which concrete legislative proposals announced in the wake of the Jerome Cahuzac affair are scheduled to be presented.
In Russia, the trial of opposition figure Alexei Navalny on embezzlement charges is scheduled to resume after it was adjourned on 17 April to allow the defence more time to prepare. Critics argue the charges are fabricated.
Wednesday is also the ‘deadline’ for the ESM Board of Governors to sign off on their €9bn share of the €10bn bailout for Cyprus announced by the Eurogroup on March 25.
In Brunei, ASEAN leaders are scheduled to hold the first of two planned summits this year, with tensions in the South China Sea likely high on the agenda.
Finally, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is due to deliver a public address in Texas. She has made several public appearances recently, leading to frenzied speculation about her potential candidacy in the 2016 presidential election.
Thursday April 25
On Thursday, Spain will release its latest unemployment statistics.
In Russia, President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to hold a live Q&A with members of the public. The catch: the questions are pre-selected.
Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama will be among those attending the dedication of the George W Bush Presidential Center in Dallas, Texas. Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter will also be in attendance.
North Korea will mark the 81st anniversary of the founding of the country’s army. The day actually recognizes the beginning of Kim Il-sung’s guerrilla activities in 1932, since the Korean People’s Army was not founded until 1948.
Also Thursday, the trial of former Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman relating to his selection in 2009 of Ze’ev Ben Aryeh to be Ambassador to Latvia. Lieberman has said he will plead not guilty.
Finally, French President will begin a two-day visit to China where he will meet his counterpart Xi Jinping.
Friday April 26
On Friday, US President Barack Obama is scheduled to host King of Abdullah of Jordan for talks at the White House. Syria is likely to be high on the agenda, with a recent announcement that the US plans to step up its military presence in Jordan in response to the conflict in neighbouring Syria.
Friday will also see the world’s largest economy release its GDP figures for the first quarter of the year. It will be the first GDP data since the automatic budget cuts – or sequestration – went into effect.
Sticking with finance, the Bank of Japan will make its second monetary policy announcement under its radical new Governor Hurihiko Kuroda.
Finally, in Ndjamena, Chad, foreign ministers from the region are due to hold a regularly scheduled meeting. The situation in the Central African Republic is likely to feature significantly.
]]>Monday 8 April
US Secretary of State John Kerry continues his visit to Israel and the Palestinian Territories on Monday (and Tuesday) where he is holding talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.
British Prime Minister David Cameron, meanwhile, will meet on Monday with his Spanish counterpart Mariano Rajoy in Madrid.
In Chile, a team of investigators will exhume the body of Pablo Neruda to verify whether the poet did, in fact, die from cancer in 1973, or whether he was assassinated, as some claim.
Finally, US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew will be in Brussels for talks with key EU officials, at which the crisis in Cyprus and its potential impact on economic stability of Europe is likely to be discussed.
Tuesday 9 April
On Tuesday, Jacob Lew is scheduled to continue his travel in Europe, with stops in Berlin and Paris for talks with his counterparts Wolfgang Schauble and Pierre Moscovici.
In New York, the UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss the situation in the Central African Republic after the Seleka rebels took the capital Bangui, deposing President Francois Bozize.
Iran will celebrate its National Day of Nuclear Technology.
Wednesday 10 April
Meanwhile, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague will host his G8 counterparts for a two-day meeting in London.
Finally, back in New York, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a major address in New York City.
Thursday 11 April
Capital controls imposed in Cyprus in the wake of the bailout agreement and designed to prevent a catastrophic bank run are scheduled to be lifted on Thursday, after they were extended by a week. Most analysts expect them to be extended again.
Italy, meanwhile, is scheduled to hold a sovereign debt auction, which will provide an opportunity to see whether the continuing political gridlock inside Italy and developments outside are rattling markets’ confidence in Europe’s fourth largest economy.
Separately, US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Martin Dempsey are testifying at Senate hearing on Thursday.
Friday 12 April
On Friday, the nine South African police officers charged in connection with the death of a Mozambican taxi driver who was filmed being dragged behind a police van are due back in court.
John Kerry will be in Seoul for talks with counterparts as he begins the Asian-leg of his seven-nation trip. Once again, North Korea will dominate.
Lastly, in Dublin, Eurogroup finance ministers are due to meet, with Cyprus and the Memorandum of Understanding on the bailout agreement top of the agenda. Finance Ministers from all 27 EU member-states will meet that afternoon and on Saturday.
Saturday 13 April
North Korea will again be on the agenda when John Kerry pays his first visit to Beijing since taking over from Hillary Clinton.
Sunday 14 April
Venezuelans will on Sunday return to the polls to elect their President in the wake of Hugo Chavez’s passing on March 5. His appointed successor, former bus driver Nicolas Maduro is expected to defeat opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.
John Kerry will wrap up his Asia visit with a stop in Tokyo where he meets his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida
In Cameroon, for the first time there will be an election for 70 members of the country’s 100-member Senate, with the remainder selected by President Paul Biya.
On Sunday, Canada’s opposition Liberal Party is scheduled to appoint its new leader. There has been much excitement about the candidacy of Justin Trudeau.
Well time has run out for the Ugandan peace process. After two years, numerous accords but no final deal, armies from Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and southern Sudan began a clean-up of the LRA’s jungle bases on Sunday.
It was only a matter of time. Last week, the International Crisis Group published a report that read like the last rites of the peace process…
On 29 November, Kony failed again to appear at the Ri-Kwangba assembly point to sign the Final Peace Agreement (FPA). Since April, armed actions attributed (not always accurately) to the LRA resumed in Sudan’s Western Equatoria state and the Bas Uélé district of the Congo (DRC). The LRA menace has moved out of Uganda, but the north does not yet have the certainty of sustainable peace.
Maybe even more alarmingly, the ICG raises the spectre of the LRA taking up its old role as a spoiler in southern Sudan…
It is available again as a proxy if Khartoum wants to disrupt the 2009 national elections, Southern Sudan’s 2011 referendum or restart war on the Sudan People’s Liberation Army’s (SPLA) southern flank.
So how did we find ourselves in this position? Intelligence documents compiled by the UN’s peacekeeping mission in the DRC made it plain the LRA was cynically using the ceasefire to re-organise
“Simply put, Kony now has the ability to divide his forces into very simple groups and to reassemble them at will,” the report says. “When put together with his proven mastery of bush warfare, this gives him new potency within his area of operations.”
As I found out during my visit to Congo’s border with southern Sudan, LRA slaving parties were kidnapping children even as Kony talked peace and collected food, phones and cash from well-meaning charities and allies.
But what’s the alternative? Uganda’s miserable northern war has displaced millions and left thousands of children brutalised and damaged. A negotiated settlement seems the only way of ending it all. Surely Kony has to be given a chance to sign up to a deal. But at what point do his abuses constitute a breach of the ceasefire? And when do we give up on it.
Frankly, I have no idea any more. This war is too messy and Joseph Kony too elusive in too many ways to know the best way to handle him. It’s easy to say after the fact that we shouldn’t have given him so much wriggle room. But what else is there? Military solutions haven’t worked before. Will they work now?