If the event on Wednesday 12 November had taken place in Thailand instead of at the Frontline Club in London, members of the Thailand: A Kingdom in Crisis panel could have been jailed.

That’s because panellists broke the Thai lèse majesté law — the crime of violating majesty — by discussing the country’s monarchy and talking frankly about the issues surrounding the royal succession. Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej is 86 and ailing, after all, and in May of this year the military staged its 12th successful coup since the country became a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

From left: Simon Baptist, Andrew MacGregor Marshall, Eugénie Mérieau, Claudio Sopranzetti and Junya ‘Lek’ Yimprasert (via Skype) in conversation at the Frontline Club.

“I’m delighted that we’re having this discussion at all, because in my view, the biggest problem in Thailand is that it’s illegal to talk about what’s happening,” Andrew MacGregor Marshall, journalist and author of the recently released book A Kingdom in Crisis, said, noting that “because of the Thai lèse majesté law, you can be jailed for three to 15 years for even saying many of the things that I’m going to say tonight.”

“When the king dies, there’ll be a profound change in Thailand and all bets are off,” said Marshall, whose book was just banned in Thailand and is no longer able to return to the country.

Throughout all of the coups and unrest, Thailand has still not engaged with the crucial unanswered question about its political realm, moderator Simon Baptist, chief economist and Asia Regional Director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the crowd.

“We’re now onto coup number 12 and the fundamental schism that has not been dealt with through any of these conflicts is this point about who controls Thailand — is it the royal family and the elite or is it the democratic control through the masses?” he said.

Junya ‘Lek’ Yimprasert, a Thai labour rights activist who was charged with lèse majesté after she wrote Why I don’t Love the King in 2010, said that in order to deal with the country’s crisis, “We need to identify who has benefitted from this chaos, this confusion, and who has lost.” Some may cast Thailand as a developing and economic success story, but the country has a massive income gap, she noted via Skype, and it’s time to address the issue.

For Eugénie Mérieau, a lecturer in political sciences and law at the University of Sciences-Po in Paris who recently published The Red-Shirts of Thailand, a major problem for the country is the “veil of ignorance” thanks to the “royalist fairy tale” that dominates historical scholarship.

But things are shifting, Mérieau said.

“It’s like a great awakening. . . . The Thais have embarked on a journey of historical deconstruction,” she said. “This online world has just really opened their eyes and they’ve just started to realise that they were living in a world of untold stories, or in a world of lies.”

Claudio Sopranzetti, a postdoctoral fellow at Oxford University All Souls College and the author of Red Journeys: Inside the Thai Red-Shirt Movement, added that Thailand must now seriously engage with the unresolved question about who has the right to wage power — a “moral, charismatic figure” inside a palace or a mobilised, voting populace?

Along with the ever looming, if unspoken, issue of succession, Thailand has a number of other political events on the horizon. The military leaders have a deadline of next September for a new constitution and then there are promised elections by 2015, although they could be delayed to 2016. For the leaders and elites in Thailand, institutionalising power and being in a place to manage the succession will be key — but don’t count the people out, Marshall said.

“I think ordinary Thais will not accept this suspension of real democracy any longer, and we might see a real change in Thailand,” he said.

You can watch it online and listen again here:

In May 2014, Thailand underwent its 12th successful military coup since the establishment of a constitutional monarchy in 1932. This time, there has been no promise of a quick return to civilian rule; a spokesperson for the National Council of Peace and Order has stated that in Thailand’s current situation, normal democratic principles cannot be applied. In August, King Bhumibol officially endorsed General Prayuth Chan-ocha as the country’s Prime Minister.

As the country’s plans for political reform begin to take shape, we will be discussing the normalisation of coups in Thailand, the problematic issue of the country’s ageing king and the perennial conflict between the Thai elite and the rural majority.

We will be joined by a panel of experts to examine the root causes of Thailand’s ongoing political crisis and what actions, if any, can be taken to resolve it.

Chaired by Simon Baptist, chief economist and Asia Regional Director at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The panel:

Andrew MacGregor Marshall is a journalist, political risk consultant and corporate investigator, focusing mainly on Southeast Asia. He spent 17 years as a correspondent for Reuters, covering amongst others conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and political upheaval in Thailand. He is author of A Kingdom in Crisis.

Claudio Sopranzetti is a postdoctoral fellow at Oxford University All Souls College and the author of Red Journeys: Inside the Thai Red-Shirt Movement.

Eugénie Mérieau is a lecturer in political sciences and law at the University of Sciences-Po in Paris. She is also a political columnist for TV and print media. She recently published The Red-Shirts of Thailand.

Junya ‘Lek’ Yimprasert (via Skype) is a Thai labour rights activist who writes about exploitation at the bottom of supply chains. After the crackdown by military forces in Bangkok in May 2010 she wrote Why I don’t love the King and was charged with lès majesté. She is now a political refugee in Europe, she continues to denounce openly the military junta and interference of Monarchy in political life in Thailand.

Picture: Blanscape / Shutterstock.com