As the ceremonies to mark the passing of Nelson Mandela come to a close and South Africa prepares for a national election, we will be bringing together a panel to look at the political future of the country.
This year’s election will be the fifth free election since the end of apartheid in 1994. As South Africa enters its 20th year of democracy we will be examining today’s political landscape. What does the future hold for the ANC and its current leader Jacob Zuma?
With wide-spread corruption, unemployment rising and slow economic growth under the ANC, who will the people of South Africa turn to in 2014? The ANC is still the dominant political force but without change will this still be the case following another term? We will be looking at the political make-up of the country, where the divisions lie and how these might develop.
Chaired by Patrick Smith, the editor-in-chief of Africa Confidential and Africa-Asia Confidential.
The panel:
John Battersby is the country manager of Brand South Africa in the UK. Previously he was editor-in-chief of the Sunday Independent in Johannesburg, and served as The New York Times and the Christian Science Monitor’s southern Africa correspondent.
Sophie Masipa is the director of communications at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, established in 2006 with a focus on the critical importance of leadership and governance in Africa.
Martin Plaut is senior research fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, former BBC Africa editor and author of a number of books including Who Rules South Africa?
Jonny Steinberg is a South African writer and lecturer in African Studies at Oxford University. His work explores South African people and institutions in the wake of the transition to democracy.
]]>"This is merely the worst, the most brutal, the most bloody of thousands of so called ‘unrest incidents’ we’ve had around the country. We have them on an almost daily basis."
Cape Town based journalist and political commentator Terry Bell set the tone at last night’s insightful discussion of the Marikana massacre and South African politics today. The talk’s key focus was not ‘what happened?’, or ‘why?’, but ‘what next?’.
The chair for the evening, Royal African Society director Richard Dowden, was joined by an expert panel, the discussion ranged from ANC corruption and economic issues, to 2024 political forecasts.
Audrey Brown, BBC producer and presenter interviewed the National Union of Mine Workers’ spokesperson, Lesiba Seshoka, following the massacre, and was shocked by his response:
"’Well the police sent out a very strong signal to these people – we will not be held to ransom, there will be no disorder.’ The response was just astonishing. The National Union of Mine Workers is meant to represent and protect these workers."
Andrew Feinstein, a former ANC MP who left the party following a public spat with Thabo Mbeki surrounding a $10 billion arms deal, took the discussion further:
"Our new Commissioner of the Police made this statement very soon after the tragedy happened, that ‘the police had nothing to apologise for.’"
Moving away from the specifics of the massacre and its precursors, Feinstein gave an impassioned insight into the ANC ‘s interior:
"Mbeki had a degree of technocratic competence… there was the sense of the building of a government…which during the Zuma administration has just collapsed. And, I would characterise the Zuma administration as one of serial ineptitude."
Jonny Steinberg, acclaimed author and lecturer in African Studies at Oxford University, gave a damning indictment of the ANC’s future prospects.
"Currently poor black South Africans vote at a greater rate than the apathetic middle class. The post-Marikana political scene will see a swing between poor, predominantly black voters, and the wealthier middle class – who will return to the poles, voting against the ANC."
"Very little is going to change in the short term, but a great deal will change in the medium term." Steinberg said. "By 2019 or 2024 we may see the end of one party movement in South Africa and an era of coalition party politics."
Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Ltd, commented on the threat of contagion of strikes to sectors that appear unrelated.
"These economic problems, combined with the perception that President Zuma is already in position to win re-election as ANC party leader, continue to undermine the party’s dominant position."
Predictably, Julius Malema‘s name arose in discussion. Steinberg and Feinstein held he was not a long term political player, while Tesfay added:
"Malema himself has become an indicator…within a couple of days of his arrival [at a mining site] or his contacting them, there is a strike. So he is providing some kind of incitement and that needs to be recognised."
Ultimately the panel highlighted the ANC’s increasingly embattled position when fielding audience questions on Malema, economic issues and corruption, which Bell described as:
"People in one another’s pockets but much more subtly than with bribes."
Feinstein added:
"I think the way in which money percolates between the mining houses, or companies in general, and the political class happens between a variety of formal and informal mechanisms, but that it is happening, there is absolutely no doubt."
Watch the event here:
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The Marikana miners’ strike in South Africa which resulted in the shooting dead of 34 workers by police is becoming a pivotal moment in South Africa’s post-apartheid history. We will be joined by a panel of experts to discuss the root causes in society and politics in South Africa that lead to the Marikana massacre.
As doubt is cast over governing authorities in the country, ANC leadership elections will take place in December which Jacob Zuma must win to guarantee a second term at presidential elections to be held in 2014. We will be examining how the Marikana massacre reflects on politics in the country and how it may effect Jacob Zuma’s chances of re – election.
Eighteen years after attaining democracy, South Africa is rife with corruption and unemployment is at crippling levels. With more and more miners joining the strike action we will be looking at the root causes of these social problems.
Chaired by Richard Dowden, director of the Royal African Society. He was Africa editor of The Independent from 1986 to 1994 before being appointed Diplomatic Editor, and then joining The Economist as their Africa Editor. He is author of Africa: Altered States, Ordinary Miracles.
With:
Terry Bell, a journalist, commentator and author based in Cape Town, South Africa, he specialises in political and economic analysis and labour matters.
Audrey Brown, a producer and presenter on BBC Focus on Africa and Network Africa.
Andrew Feinstein a former ANC Member of Parliament in South Africa, a
writer, campaigner and broadcaster. He is the author of The Shadow World: Inside the Global Arms Trade and the political memoir After the Party: A
Personal and Political Journey Inside the ANC.
Jonny Steinberg, a South African writer and scholar. He is the author of several books including Midlands and The Number, which won South Africa’s premier nonfiction award, the Sunday Times Alan Paton Prize. He is currently a lecturer in African Studies at Oxford.
Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Ltd. Prior to joining Exclusive Analysis she worked in the field of urban development, consulting for municipal governments in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America.
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By Nicole Hunt
Though it’s sometimes difficult to keep track of which Silvio Berlusconi trial is currently in court, Monday sees the resumption of the most infamous of his four cases, in which he faces charges for abuse of power and paying for underage sex. The Italian Senate has approved a motion to move the case from Milan’s court to a special minister’s court, but the case remains in Milan while the Constitutional Court mulls the Senate’s request.
The Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly opens, with more attention than usual being paid this time around. On Tuesday, the Assembly debates a motion that would recommend taking action against pre-natal sex selection in Europe, particularly in Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, where the ratio of girls to boys in the population is dropping. On Thursday, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the assembly.
Following a meeting of Eurogroup Finance Ministers on Monday, all EU Finance Ministers convene in Luxembourg on Tuesday, with the focus, as with many things this week, squarely on Greece. Discussions are also expected on an EU financial transaction tax, after the European Commission published proposals last week.
In direct response to the austerity measures being so closely watched by the European Finance Ministers, Greek public sector workers hold a 24-hour strike on Wednesday, calling the cuts ‘barbaric’. A general strike is also planned for 19 October.
Meanwhile, in Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends the weekly meeting of the European College of Commissioners. At NATO headquarters, NATO Defence Ministers hold a regular meeting to discuss operational issues, with Libya topping the agenda.
Former Bosnian-Serb Army Commander Ratko Mladic is back in court in The Hague on Thursday. Since his last appearance on 25 August, Mladic’s lawyers have requested the names of all 7,000 victims of the Srebrenica massacre as part of their opposition to the indictment.
In Johannesburg, the African National Congress’ disciplinary committee resumes hearing the charges against controversial youth leader Julius Malema, who is accused of interrupting an ANC Officials meeting alongside three other men. Malema faces separate charges of bringing the ANC into disrepute and sowing divisions within ANC ranks, which will be heard separately once this case has concluded. It’s currently scheduled to last two days, but has already been delayed several times.
Friday is, oddly, both the 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the War in Afghanistan and also the date for the announcement of the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo. Anti-war activists hold mass demonstrations in London and Washington on Saturday, while the Peace Prize will be presented to the winner on 10 December.
Archbishop Desmond Tutu celebrates his 80th birthday and a year since he stepped down from public duties. Three days of celebrations are being held in Cape Town, and a new biography is being released to mark the day.
Spanish ‘indignant’ activists who have marched 1500km from Madrid are scheduled to arrive in Brussels on Saturday to hold a demonstration against unrepresentative politics. The protesters, who are joined by counterparts from across Europe, plan to hold a week of events, culminating in a large rally on 15 October.
Two elections take place on Sunday: voters in Poland elect 460 members to their lower house and 100 members to their upper house of parliament, while in Cameroon voters elect their president for the next seven years. Incumbent Paul Biya is only the second president since independence in 1960, and has held the post since 1982.
The Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams is in Zimbabwe on Sunday, making him the first high-profile UK official to visit the country since 2001. The visit is part of a three-country pastoral tour which also includes Malawi and Zambia. Williams is expected to meet with President Robert Mugabe, and is scheduled to hold a special service for members of the Anglican Church who have not joined a splinter movement set up by the former Bishop of Harare.
]]>By Nicole Hunt
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meets in Vienna on Monday, with Iran likely to be high on the agenda following last week’s report expressing increased concerns over ‘undisclosed nuclear related activities’ in the country.
Bouthaina Shaaban, political adviser to Syrian President Bashar al Assad, is in Moscow, where she is scheduled to meet with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and hold a press conference for international media. Shaaban was one of three Syrian officials slapped with sanctions by the US Treasury Department at the end of August.
The African National Congress is expected to wrap up disciplinary proceedings against controversial ANC youth leader Julius Malema on Tuesday, having recently moved the hearing from the ANC headquarters at Luthuli House to an undisclosed location in Johannesburg following violent protests last week. Malema is accused of bringing the ANC into disrepute and sowing divisions within ANC ranks after he encouraged the overthrow of Botswana’s government.
In Brussels, the OECD publishes its annual Education at a Glance report, analysing the education systems and performances in member states. For the first time, this year’s report also looks at education in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa.
The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg hears a complaint on Wednesday brought by four people who say they were illegally deprived of their liberty without justification while they were held in a police ‘kettle’ during the 2001 May Day protests in London.
In New York, the UN Security Council holds a debate on drought-stricken Somalia, where security issues have compounded problems as aid struggles to get into the country and people struggle to get out.
Parliamentary elections take place in Denmark on Thursday. Recent polls say Helle Thorning-Schmidt could be the country’s next Prime Minister, as her opposition Social Democrat party looks poised to win the most seats.
A court in The Hague is due to rule on Apple’s application to ban sales of Samsung’s Galaxy phones. A temporary injunction banning sales and distribution throughout much of Europe was issued on 11 August, but is not due to come into effect until 13 October.
Following debates this week in several European parliaments on new powers for the European Financial Stability Fund, European finance ministers begin a two-day meeting on Friday.
The International Criminal Court in The Hague holds a confirmation of charges hearing for Callixte Mbarushimana, a former UN employee charged with crimes against humanity and war crimes in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2009. Mbarushimana is alleged to have been the executive secretary of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda and directly responsible for at least 32 deaths in Rwanda during the 1994 genocide while still employed by the UN, but has never been charged.
Libyan schools are scheduled to re-open on Saturday, with a brand new curriculum devoid of Gaddafi-era subjects such as the Green Book.
At the Dead Sea in Israel, photographer Spencer Turnick stages another mass nude photoshoot, hoping to bring awareness to the fact that the famously salty lake is drying up.
The week wraps up with state elections in Berlin, the sixth in Germany this year. The regional elections have generally proven disastrous for Angela Merkel’s CDU party, which has suffered losses country-wide to the Social Democrats, a trend that many expect to continue into the 2013 federal election.
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Tonight at the Frontline Club we discuss the rise of Jacob Zuma and the future of South Africa and the ANC. We’ll be starting at 7pm, Thurs May 7 and as usual if you can’t make it to the club in person you can join us online on the Frontline Club live channel, on the events page or on this blog.
]]>The panel will discuss the rise of Jacob Zuma against this background and look at the future of the ANC, examining whether the party will remain deeply divided and to what extent will Jacob Zuma will be able to tackle some of the biggest domestic problems facing the state, including policy failures in areas such as health, education and crime? Will he be able to address the fundamental economic imbalance that makes South Africa the most unequal society on earth? And on the foreign policy front how will Zuma and the ANC interact with the power sharing government in Zimbabwe between ZANU-PF (an ANC ally) and the MDC? link