Expect to see the current decline in pirate attacks continue, if my sources have got it right. The reason – although the Yanks are keen to claim "mission accomplished" on behalf of their maritime patrols – is the election of Abdirahman Mohamed Farole as president of Puntland. During the election campaign he promised to tackle poverty, one of the underlying causes of piracy, by providing jobs for thousands of young men – exactly the people who are taking to the seas at the moment. What has not been mentioned so far is that the new president has been one of the main players in the plunder industry. Now he has to decide whether he wants to go legit, by severing his ties with the pirates and bringing the gunmen on board (ahem) as members of a coastguard or other security forces.