Turkey and Armenia could soon announce a deal aimed at reopening their border and restoring relations, according to diplomats, a move that could help stabilize a region that’s increasingly important as a transit route for oil and gas.
The timing of the deal is being choreographed with the schedule of U.S. President Barack Obama, who visits Turkey next week, these people say.
[…]
[…] an accord would be seen in Western capitals as a major potential success that could help to open up and stabilize the Caucasus. The region is studded with unresolved conflicts and hostile borders, and saw war between Russia and Georgia in August.
Normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia would “create a new and positive dynamic” in relations across the region, “as well as in developing the economic and transport links we have been pursuing ever since the collapse of the former Soviet Union,” said U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew J. Bryza, the State Department’s point man in the Caucasus.
Mr. Bryza travels to Azerbaijan Thursday to discuss how a Turkish-Armenian agreement could help revive efforts for a settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh.
[…]
One date under discussion for signing the deal with Armenia, diplomats say, is April 16. But Mr. Ãœnlühisarcikli said he believes Turkey and Armenia won’t be ready to sign the deal before April 24, and Turkey instead will “signal” its commitment to reopen the borders in the hope that will be enough for Washington.
Russia’s invasion of Georgia last August opened the door for Turkey to become more heavily engaged in the Caucasus. The war showed the limitations of U.S. and EU influence in the region and exposed the extent of Armenia’s isolation. When Russia cut Georgia’s main East-West railway by blowing up a bridge in August, it also cut off the dominant supply route to Armenia, a close Russian ally.
[…] link

TURKEY AND Armenia are poised to normalise relations non-existent since 1993. The move would be a historic reconciliation between two traditional enemies divided by strategic differences in the Caucasus and the Ottoman Empire’s ethnic cleansing of Armenians in 1915.
Analysts following two years of secret talks said the two sides have now agreed on a sweeping package that includes opening a shared border closed since 1993, beginning diplomatic relations and setting up a bilateral intergovernmental commission on issues ranging from customs, tax and public health to history.
Turkey is also expected to release a “road map” on a solution on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan that has been under de facto Armenian control since 1994. “The parameters of the deal are very much set,” said Hugh Pope, the Turkey project director for International Crisis Group, which is currently working on a report about Turkish-Armenian relations.
“The only thing holding things back now is nerves.”
Analysts in Yerevan said the two governments have tentatively agreed to reveal the package on April 16th, when Turkey’s foreign minister is expected to fly to Yerevan for talks.
Senior Turkish foreign policy officials refused to confirm the date. The Armenian foreign ministry was unavailable for comment.

And although it’s unlikely that Armenian concerns figure anywhere near as highly in Obama’s foreign policy as the need for Turkey’s support and assistance over Iraq and Afghanistan, there are also other regional implications for a genuine normalization of ties as opposed to words to appease an ethnic Armenian electorate in the U.S.:

Thomas de Waal, author of a highly regarded book on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, thinks the deal has a lot to do with changes in Russia’s south Caucasian policy since it went to war with Georgia in August 2008.
“The war really drove home Armenia’s reliance on Georgia as a trade conduit,” he said.
“Russia saw that blowing up one Georgian bridge was enough to deprive [its Armenian ally] of imports for a week. Plus the fact is that Russia now owns Armenia’s economy. If you own the telecom sector and railways, opening up the border is in your interest.”
[…]
For de Waal, meanwhile, the most important implication of a Turkish-Armenian deal is that it could spur Armenian-Azeri peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh which he describes as being “a parody”.
“Historically the Armenian-Azeri dispute is but a brawl compared to the Armenian-Turkish dispute,” he said.
“If the Turks are doing a deal with Armenia, there is no reason whatsoever for Armenia and Azerbaijan not to be able to . . . talk constructively.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0327/1224243552256.html

[…] balance the political benefit of uttering the “g” word with Washington’s need to find new supply routes for US forces in Afghanistan, possibly via Turkey. Balance it too with Turkey’s desire to act as a mediator with Syria and Iran on America’s behalf.
And the Turks and Armenians don’t need another row to stop them from becoming friends. Last September, Turkey’s president visited Armenia, the first Turkish head of state to do so. There’s talk of opening the border, of opening embassies.
Not long after the Soviet Union collapsed, I flew on a US army transport plane from Turkey to Armenia, delivering aid to the broken republic. It was one of the first direct flights ever and only took about an hour.
But this is 2009, and more direct contact between the two is way overdue. The Iron Curtain may have come down across Europe, but Turkey and Armenia have yet to tear down theirs.
This is not to say that Turkey doesn’t have to reckon with its past – or rather with the actions of Ottoman officials before the Republic of Turkey came into being.
“But Obama uttering the word ‘genocide’? How is that going to help?” I asked myself, as I watched the Turk and the Armenian head home from dinner, back to their 18-month-old child. link

Meanwhile, RFE/RL reports that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has spoken to Armenian President Serge Sargsyan, and normalizing ties between Armenia and Turkey was one of the subjects discussed.

President Serzh Sarkisian discussed a wide range of issues, including Armenia’s ongoing rapprochement with Turkey, in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reported by his office on Wednesday.
[…]
The statement said that Sarkisian and Clinton also touched upon international efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and “the Turkish-Armenian political dialogue.” It gave no details.
The U.S. State Department issued no statements on Clinton’s first-ever conversation with the Armenian leader. The acting department spokesman, Robert Wood, did not mention it at a daily press briefing in Washington on Tuesday.
The current and previous U.S. administrations have welcomed the dramatic thaw in the traditionally strained Turkish-Armenian relations. After months of high-level negotiations, the two neighboring states appear to be on the verge of to establishing diplomatic relations and opening their border. link

Today, Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) announced the introduction of a resolution recognizing and commemorating the Armenian Genocide. The resolution calls on the President and the U.S. Government to properly recognize the atrocities that occurred in Armenia beginning in 1915, and which resulted in 1.5 million deaths, as genocide. Rep. Schiff authored the resolution with George Radanovich (R-CA), Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and Mark Kirk (R-IL).
[…]
Last week, Rep. Schiff and the other coauthors of the resolution wrote to President Obama lauding him for his principled record of recognizing the Armenian Genocide. The letter asked the President to make a strong statement of genocide recognition on April 24th – as President Reagan did more than 20 years ago.
“The Affirmation of the U.S. Record on the Armenian Genocide” resolution has the bipartisan support of 77 original co-sponsors in the House of Representatives. It calls on the President to “ensure that the foreign policy of the United States reflects appropriate understanding” of the “Armenian Genocide” and to “accurately characterize the systematic and deliberate annihilation of 1,500,000 Armenians as genocide.”
[…] link

Administration officials are considering postponing a presidential statement, citing progress toward a thaw in relations between Turkey and neighboring Armenia. Further signs of warming — such as talk of reopening border crossings — would strengthen arguments that a U.S. statement could imperil the progress. link

It’s almost April, so Washington is gearing up for another performance of the “Armenian Genocide Resolution Spectacular,” a regular event since 1984. Here’s the historical plotline: the Armenian-American lobby gets a few U.S. congressmen to sponsor a resolution recognizing the 1915 massacre of Armenians in what is now Eastern Turkey as a “genocide.” Then other members of the House are induced to support it. (Members of the House may not be history buffs, but they understand the importance of stroking a powerful domestic lobby.) Next, the Turkish government says Turkey is too important to be insulted like this. In response, the American administration, recognizing that Turkey is indeed a critical NATO ally whose Incirlik Air Base is vital to the Iraq mission, starts twisting congressional arms to abandon the resolution. Offstage, the Israeli lobby, generally keen to boost Turkish-Israeli relations (though less so this year), works against the resolution. Finally, the House leadership reluctantly shelves the whole thing and the curtain falls.
Before staging this year’s performance, however, Congress should note that hitherto frozen relations between Armenia and Turkey are now showing signs of melting, and that this may be the first step toward reconciling the Turkish and Armenian peoples.
[…]
Progress is not as implausible as it sounds. In the early days of the Republic, Kemal Atatürk, who was not personally implicated, described the Armenian massacres as “shameful acts.” No ex-Ottoman officials were investigated, however, as Turkey needed the newly minted heroes of its War of Independence to have no stain on their characters. Today, Erdogan will accept an investigation. In return, Armenia must accept a reciprocal investigation into the Ottoman Armenians, who fought with the sultan’s Russian enemy, and their responsibility for massacres of Turks and Kurds. Weaving together these two violently opposed historical perspectives will take time and patience. As important as the final answer, however, is the development of empathy across the divide.
Congress can help keep the path to reconciliation open if it is willing to deny the Armenian-American lobby the instant gratification of a genocide resolution. […] For its part, the Armenian diaspora might even support reconciliation if only as its second choice. Finally, good relations between Turkey and Armenia would further U.S. objectives in the Caucasus. […] Congress and others should recognize that this year holds real promise for the beginning of reconciliation between the Turkish and Armenian peoples. If nothing comes of it, Congress can always return to a resolution.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/186973

WASHINGTON – A high-profile ethics organization on Wednesday asked federal agencies to investigate the Armenian National Committee of America for alleged campaign-finance and lobbying violations.
In a seven-page complaint, the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington asserts that the Armenian-American group failed to register either as a domestic lobbying group or as a foreign agent despite its political work and its close ties to an Armenian political party.
[…]
Armenian National Committee of America officials denounced the charges as unfounded.
[…]
The committee hasn’t registered as a lobbyist with either the House of Representatives or the Senate. […]
Citing news accounts, a U.S. Embassy study and the research of Heather Gregg, an assistant professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., the complaint contends that the Armenian National Committee of America is “an arm” of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, a political party that’s part of Armenia’s ruling coalition.
Agents of foreign political parties are required to register with the Justice Department.

http://www.kansas.com/514/story/704397.html