Comments on: Concerns emerging over May municipal election

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 05:29:48 +0000

Ani, sure it is although a lot depends on how much attention residents in Yerevan will give to the vote. On the other hand, if the global economic crisis hits home even more as the weeks progress, the potential is there to make this a significant test for the authorities. Given the Republican candidate, this also becomes a potentially tense clash, especially if it looks as though some significant falsification will be needed even with the 40 percent provision. Anyway, as I said in my post on the 1 March anniversary rally, the fact that the opposition had announced 1 May for their next demonstration was very telling indeed. A lot depends on the mood of residents as well as their interest in (and understanding of the importance of) the election, however, and that will be clearer in the next month or so.

By: Ani

Ani — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 15:41:34 +0000

Just saw this on Lragir (which one still cannot link to). If this is reported accurately, an interesting development?
LEVON TER-PETROSYAN WILL LEAD MAYOR ELECTION TICKET
On March 15, a joint session of the political board of the Armenian National Congress (HAK) and the central office took place with the participation of Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
Questions regarding the forthcoming Mayor elections were discussed. According to the decision made during the session, the Armenian National Congress (HAK) will run in the Mayor election. The first president of Armenia will lead their list.
According to another decision, the member parties of the Armenian National Congress instructed the central office to discuss the question regarding the proposal of the Heritage Party on the joint running in the elections and to start official negotiations in this relation.

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 15:28:15 +0000

And here’s an unofficial translation of the law governing the municipal election from an international organization operating in Armenia:

LAW OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA
On making changes and amendments in the Electoral Code of the Republic of Armenia
[…]
ARTICLE 138.16 SUMMARIZATION OF VOTING AND ELECTION RESULTS
[…]
4. If, as a result of mandate distribution pursuant to the procedure specified in this paragraph, one of the parties receives over 40 percent but not the absolute majority of the seats, then the absolute majority of seats is given to that party, and the other mandates are distributed among the electoral lists of the parties having received the right to participate in the distribution of mandates.
5. The rest of the mandates are distributed among the electoral lists in the order of the size of the remainder, by the principle of one mandate to each. In case if the sizes of remainders are equal, the disputable mandate is given to the electoral list that has received the most votes cast for, and in case of equality thereof, the issue is resolved by drawing a lot.
[…]

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 10:05:11 +0000

Incidentally, this is the information passed on to me by an international organization in Yerevan:

The law further specifies that if political party/bloc has received more than 40% of seats but does not have the absolute majority of seats in the city council then extra seats are allocated to that part/bloc in order to gain absolute majority. For example if a party gets 27 seats (which is more than 40%) then extra 6 seats will be allocated to that party in order to have absolute majority in the council, i.e. 33 seats.
[…]
It is worth mentioning that the major differences between the first reading draft and the second reading draft of the Yerevan law was the introduction of bonus seats for the political party/bloc with more than 40% and less than 50% of votes. The oppositional Heritage Party considered the second draft a regression. Nevertheless, the ruling coalition parties had no problem passing the law with the absolute majority that they have in the Parliament.
It should also be noted that the law on Yerevan was passed during the 2008 Christmas and New Year season when many international and local organizations are less active.
[…]
[…] the bonus system under local Armenian circumstances would be an extra leverage to gain absolute power in the Yerevan self-governance bodies. The motivation of the authors of the law may become clearer if we look at the results of the 2007 National Assembly elections. The Republican Party received only 33% of votes through the proportional system even with certain controversy and fraud incorporated in that percentage. Realistically the ruling party/parties cannot expect to gain 50% of votes nor can they manipulate the results of elections too obviously and rudely among strongly opposition minded electorate like Yerevan.

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 09:54:05 +0000

Update for readers, as Observer informs, the speculation surrounding Beglarian was correct and he was appointed Mayor of Yerevan in the run-up to May's election this week:

President Serzh Sarkisian replaced Yerevan Mayor Yervand Zakharian by another loyalist on Wednesday in a move apparently aimed at helping his Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) win the upcoming elections of the first municipal council in over a decade. [...] Zakharianâ€s replacement, Gagik Beglarian, was chosen by the HHK leadership on Saturday to lead the list of the partyâ€s candidates in the elections scheduled for May 31. That means he will be re-appointed as Yerevan mayor if the HHK wins the majority of 65 seats in the assembly. link

By: Observer

Observer — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:24:29 +0000

Let’s say – nobody really doubts that Gagik Beglarian (who is already the Mayor of Yerevan), will also be elected to this post on May 31st.

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 08:57:56 +0000

The extra-parliamentary opposition led by former President Levon Ter-Petrossian has now said that it will be contesting the May municipal election. Indeed, it’s next rally is staged for the beginning of May. Meanwhile, press reports speculate that the controversial Gagik Beglarian is likely to become the next Mayor of Yerevan.