Comments on: Armenia and Turkey set to establish diplomatic relations

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:31:52 +0000

Incidentally, according to the protocols, the border would be opened within two months of its signing. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that the first, which establishes diplomatic relations, could be ratified, but not the second, which develops relations and implements all the other necessary aspects of normalization, i.e. open border, establishment of commissions on key issues.
The stumbling blocks in the case of the second, and the most likely to create problems in Armenia and Turkey, are the historical commission and the reaction of Azerbaijan. This might also explain Sargsyan’s disappointment with Turkey because of Azerbaijan and how it would relate to the second protocol, although it’s likely some political forces here would also object to the historical commission.
As for the first on establishing diplomatic relations, but not an open border, it would likely anger nationalists in Armenia because demands for territorial reparations in case of genocide recognition would be ended (as opposed to exceedingly unlikely as they are now). Let’s see how things develop although comments from the Turkish MFA still indicate a border opening linked to NK/Azerbaijan.

The joint statement released by the Armenian and Turkish foreign ministries said the two countries would start consultations to sign two protocols â€” one to establish diplomatic ties, the other to develop relations. The talks, with continued mediation by Switzerland, are to last six weeks.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said, however, that opening the border was out of the question for now. “A longer process is required for that,” he was quoted by Turkey’s NTV television station as saying Monday.
He also said Turkey would “guard” Azerbaijan’s interest during its reconciliation with Armenia, saying “our aim is to establish stability in the Caucasus,” according to NTV. link

Could be intended for domestic and Azeri consumption, but the main obstacles to normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey lie with the second protocol. Still, let’s wait and see. Interesting times…

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 03:51:24 +0000

There's probably not much need to post more links to news items on this latest and unprecedented development, but this is at least reading as some analysts and observers consider that normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations will contribute to the establishment of peace and stability in the region as I wrote in the last but one paragraph.

Turkey wants to go beyond establishing ties with Armenia and normalize relations across the South Caucasus, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Reuters on Monday. [...] "This is a process and at the end of it, not only Turkish-Armenian, many borders will be opened," Davutoglu said in an interview as he traveled from Damascus to Nicosia on a tour of the Middle East. Davutoglu also spoke of opening the border between Armenia and Turkey's Muslim ally Azerbaijan. He did not specify any other borders. [...] "This is a process and at the end of it, not only Turkish-Armenian, many borders will be opened," Davutoglu said in an interview as he traveled from Damascus to Nicosia on a tour of the Middle East. Davutoglu also spoke of opening the border between Armenia and Turkey's Muslim ally Azerbaijan. He did not specify any other borders. [...] link

In fact, there is some substance in the notion that normalized Armenian-Turkish ties would contribute to finally ending the long-running conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh. Indeed, some consider that if it hopes for a framework peace agreement were to fail the chances of a new war withing the next five years are more likely. What still remains to be seen, however, is how Azerbaijan will react to the news, although many suspect it would have been informed about the protocols beforehand. Indeed, according to other news reports, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev met with Turkish diplomats late last week and has also discussed Armenia-Turkey relations with the Turkish prime minister.

On August 28, Ilham Aliyev had a phone conversation with Turkish Premier Erdogan. The latter told Aliyev of the Armenian-Turkish relations development, while Azerbaijani President spoke of the current situation with Karabakh peace process. Erdogan informed about the visit of Turkish delegation to Baku. Presumably, Turkish officials arrived in Baku to align positions on Armenian issues. Both countries are under the pressure of world opinion in terms of attempts to link Karabakh peace process with Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. Returning to Turkey, Sinirlioglu said the journalists they had explained Aliyev Turkish position on Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and Karabakh conflict settlement. It is noteworthy that after the phone conversation, Turkish side had to send a delegation to Baku to clarify thoroughly Turkish position to Azerbaijani President. Obviously, Turkish side is concerned about non-constructive Azerbaijani policy, while Ankara has to settle relations with Armenia based on â€˜roadmapâ€ agreed upon through international mediation. link

As the article says, discussion is one thing, but accepting it is another. It remains to be seen what Azerbaijan's official stated position will be. However, it is likely to come later today. I'm sure there's plenty to wait for in terms of the media and political forces in Armenia and Turkey too...

By: Onnik Krikorian

Onnik Krikorian — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:14:51 +0000

The BBC has now updated its earlier report.

Turkey and its neighbour Armenia have moved closer to establishing diplomatic ties after decades of bitter mistrust on both sides.
They are to hold six weeks of domestic consultations on the move after which their parliaments will vote on it, their foreign ministries announced.
[…]
According to Reuters news agency, the Turkish-Armenian border – closed by Turkey in 1993 – will re-open within two months of the protocols coming into force. link